Not exact matches
Pielke, who said one issue ignored in the paper is that
land surface
temperature measurements
over time show bigger warming trends than measurements from higher up in a part of the atmosphere called the lower troposphere, and that still needs more explanation.
«We show that at the present - day warming of 0.85 °C about 18 % of the moderate daily precipitation extremes
over land are attributable to the observed
temperature increase since pre-industrial
times, which in turn primarily results from human influence,» the research team said.
---- It would actually be really interesting to see a series of plots that show how the datasets of measured sea and
land temperatures have evolved
over time as they have been improved with adjustments such as this.
The
temperature at each
land and ocean station is compared daily to what is «normal» for that location and
time, typically the long - term average
over a 30 - year period.
However,
over long
time periods, the variation of the global average
temperature with CO2 concentration depends on various factors such as the placement of the continents on Earth, the functionality of ocean currents, the past history of the climate, the orientation of the Earth's orbit relative to the Sun, the luminosity of the Sun, the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere, volcanic action,
land clearing, biological evolution, etc..
The variation
over time of the hydrological variables and
temperature are shown below for averages
over land areas for NW, NE, SW and SE Europe.
The question at which Parker's study was addressed was the question: «Could the global warming apparent in the record of
land - based
temperatures be due to an increase
over time in the local UHI effects?»
· On average, between 1950 and 1993, night -
time daily minimum air
temperatures over land increased by about 0.2 °C per decade.
The
time series uses - an area - weighted average of the surface air
temperature over land and the
temperature of water at the ocean's surface.
Girma is showing you actual physical observations (warts and all) of the globally and annually average
land and sea surface
temperature anomaly
over time.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the
temperature trend during the recent thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or trends represent «data» in those trends (what the earth's
temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate change»), and what represents experimental error in the plots (UHI increases in the
temperatures, thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter
temperatures, differences in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice
land records, extrapolated
land records
over hundreds of km, surface
temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious
time - of - observation bias changes in the information.)
The same should be true for climate change we should evaluate the changes in
temperature (not anomalies)
over time at the same stations and present the data as a spaghetti graph showing any differing trends and not assume that regional or climates in gridded areas are the same — which they are not as is obvious from the climate zones that exist or microclimates due to changes in precipitation,
land use etc..
However, for changes
over time, only anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on the area - weighted global average of the sea surface
temperature anomaly and
land surface air
temperature anomaly.
This indicates to me that the rate of energy being added to the oceans has not increased
over a longer
time period and that there is thus a discrepancy between
land and ocean
temperature data.
Jones et al. (1990) have assessed the urbanization effects in
time series of surface air
temperature over land areas in European parts of the CIS, eastern Australia, and eastern China.
Here, we present an explanation for
time - invariant
land — sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly
over land and ocean; second, the
temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the
temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity.
Assessment of Urbanisation effects in
Time Series of Surface Air
Temperature Over Land.
In the meantime, back in cotton wool
land: «Since the
time of AR4, neither global mean
temperature nor OHU have increased, while the IPCC's own estimate of the post-1750 change in forcing net of OHU has increased by
over 60 %.»
I suspect, however, a graph of that might look rather similar to that plot showing global
land - ocean
temperature increases
over time.
McKitrick correlated
land temperature trends with economic development /
land use change etc. (
over longer
time scales than 1 year).
Andreas, in the M&M study the dependent variable is the trend is the measured surface
temperature over a given
time period for suitably defined areas of
land surface (i.e. one trend per area).
So Perth sea levels haven't risen by up to 10 mm per year since 1993, they aren't rising three
times faster than the global average,
land subsidence indicates they've been closer to flat and possibly even fallen since 1993, and the leaked IPCC report confirms they've been as stable as global
temperatures for well
over a decade.
1990 P.D. Jones, et al., «Assessment of Urbanization Effects in
Time Series of Surface Air
Temperatures over Land.»