These feedbacks act on multidecadal timescales, and could potentially dampen the reponse to any long
timescale changes in forcing.
These feedbacks act on multidecadal timescales, and could potentially dampen the reponse to any long
timescale changes in forcing.
Not exact matches
[It is helps us to understand what natural
forces are currently at work that could be causing
changes... But note that some natural
forces like the ones that I talked about above work over much longer
timescales than the century
timescale over which we are making significant
changes in greenhouse gas levels.
Perhaps you might want to read that paper as well as «Climate
Change and Trace Gases», available
in many places, which argues for an albedo flip mechanism and (relatively) short
timescales for icesheet response to
forcing, based on paleo data.
[Response: the Milankovitch
timescale is long and the
forcing barely varies due to orbital
changes over 100 years so no, they aren't included (they would be for people modelling the last glacial maximum); solar
forcing is modelled by
change in total solar irradiance (probably as a total number; not sure if
changes at different wavelengths are included)-- William]
For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate
forcing effects, the
timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics,
changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.
When Rawls claims the early - mid 20th century solar
changes are responsible for late - 20th response, it occurs to me, given all the different
timescales in the system, most of which I don't know the values for, that I don't have a feel for what the response to a pure - solar
forcing might look like (leaving energy balance questions aside — just what is the shape of the curves?)
These processes are not believed to play any significant role on the
timescales (centuries to millennia) of interest
in discussions of anthropogenic climate
forcing and climate
change.
The U.S. military seems interested
in climate variations /
change on
timescales from seasonal to scales out to about 30 years, a period over which natural climate variability could very well swamp anthropogenically
forced climate
change.
Identify how anthropogenic
forcing and natural atmosphere - ocean variability contribute uniquely to decadal
timescale changes in the width of the tropical belt.
Third order
forcings — El Nino / La Nina, volcanoes, variations
in greenhouse gases —
changes of up to 3Â ° -5 Â °C on shorter
timescales.
In particular, anomalously high convection in ENSO and ENSO - related regional cloud changes can lead to negative feedbacks not seen with persistent forcings that operate over longer timescales on a more global basi
In particular, anomalously high convection
in ENSO and ENSO - related regional cloud changes can lead to negative feedbacks not seen with persistent forcings that operate over longer timescales on a more global basi
in ENSO and ENSO - related regional cloud
changes can lead to negative feedbacks not seen with persistent
forcings that operate over longer
timescales on a more global basis.
Radiative feedbacks act the same way as radiative
forcings, except that they themselves are dependent on temperature
changes (the distinction depends on
timescale and context; also,
in some contexts the feedbacks» effects are described as radiative
forcings — for example, the radiative
forcing of the increase
in water vapor that would occur for a given temperature increase).