If the validation period does not have as strong a trend and the proxies are not skillful at predicting shorter
timescale fluctuations in temperature, then the CE can be substantially lower.
Not exact matches
It is a big enough perturbation on
timescales of multiple decades or longer to dominate the
temperature pattern on a global scale, despite the existence of chaotic elements responsible for
fluctuations in the
temperature trend globally that average out, and despite significant unpredictability regionally.
In conclusion, our analysis suggests that strong interannual and decadal variations observed in the average land surface temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when fluctuations on the timescale of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino event
In conclusion, our analysis suggests that strong interannual and decadal variations observed
in the average land surface temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when fluctuations on the timescale of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino event
in the average land surface
temperature records represent a true climate phenomenon, not only during the years when
fluctuations on the
timescale of 2 - 15 years had been previously identified with El Nino events.
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring
fluctuation,» whereby «on a
timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings
in temperature are accompanied by changes
in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability
in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts
in the position of atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations
in rainfall and weather patterns
in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
And,
in fact, when one looks at
temperature fluctuations that occur on the
timescales of months to a few years, you do
in fact see this amplification.
The research appears to indicate that the short - term
fluctuations in solar activity, though they discernibly cause the short - term cycles global
temperatures in a manner that the monotonic increase
in CO2 manifestly does not, are absolutely predictive of global
temperature change on all
timescales provided that the time - integral of the solar - activity change is taken.