Considering that we have just seen another study (Skeie) showing that using more recent
data constrains climate sensitivity, can Dr. Forest justify ignoring the 16 years of additional observational data?
we are unable to conclude that the paper provides the sort of advance in
significantly constraining climate sensitivity relative to prior estimates that would be likely to excite the immediate interest of researchers in a broad range of other disciplines
In fact Andrew Dessler and other climate scientists have made this point, that the «instrumental» method uncertainties are too large to
tightly constrain climate sensitivity, because of the uncertain aerosol forcing, among othe reasons.
So in order to
constrain the climate sensitivity from the paleo - data, we need to find a period under which our restricted subsystem is stable — i.e. all the boundary conditions are relatively constant, and the climate itself is stable over a long enough period that we can assume that the radiation is pretty much balanced.
2) A better ability to
constrain climate sensitivity from the past century's data 3) It will presumably be anticorrelated with year to year variations in global surface temperature that we see, especially from El Ninos and La Ninas, which will be nice whenever we have a cool year and the deniers cry out «global warming stopped!».
Knutti, R., G.A. Meehl, M.R. Allen and D.A. Stainforth, 2006:
Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature.
For example, Frame et al. (2005) and Andronova and Schlesinger (2000) use surface air temperature alone, while Forest et al. (2002, 2006), Knutti et al. (2002, 2003) and Gregory et al. (2002a) use both surface air temperature and ocean temperature change to
constrain climate sensitivity.
c) The observational record is still too short to
constrain climate sensitivity (in part because of lack of knowledge about some of the forcings), so weakening evidence from this record doesn't change the result.
Modern estimates are not only based on model calculations but also on paleoclimatic and modern data; the AR4 lists 13 studies that
constrain climate sensitivity in its table 9.3.