Individuals may prefer
lower stock allocations in case they need cash to exploit buying opportunities and / or to handle emergencies.
Many stock investors reject claims that they should
lower their stock allocations at times of high prices on grounds that it would be a mistake to show a reluctance to take on risk.
Juicy Excerpt: The full reality is that aged investors are better sticking with high stock allocations at times of moderate and low prices and all investors (not only aged investors) should be going
with low stock allocations at times of high prices.
What Buy - and - Holders refuse to acknowledge, however, is that it is possible for investors to profit from this reality by increasing their stock allocation when prices are low and
by lowering their stock allocation when prices are high.
I have one observation to make re the point that few financial planners feel that they could have «gotten away» with having investors at
low stock allocations during the years of sky - high prices.
So instead of investing 60 % of a portfolio in stocks, the
funds lower the stock allocation and use leverage to boost the returns of the safer side of portfolio, e.g. bonds, to achieve the same returns with less risk.»
Those
who lowered their stock allocations when the long - term value proposition was poor (the most likely long - term return on stocks was a negative number at the top of the bubble) have a lot more in the way of assets to invest in stocks now that they again offer a reasonable long - term value proposition.
The one exception is the case in which we see great returns starting from a time of insanely high valuations; VII calls for investors to go
with low stock allocations at times of insanely high valuations.
Alternatively, you may accept a higher withdrawal rate and / or
lower stock allocation even with a long time horizon because you may be willing to accept a somewhat higher risk of running out of money.
When I was designing the calculator with its co-developer (John Walter Russell), we came to the conclusion that it would be good to show aspiring retirees how they can in some circumstances retire sooner
by lowering their stock allocations (under the Buy - and - Hold Model, stocks are always the best investment choice because return expectations are always the same in a world of random - walk prices).
As in my tweet above, that very well could be asset allocators with
low stock allocations that conclude that they need to chase the rally.
The most common objection I hear when I advise investors to
lower their stock allocations is that non-stock asset classes are offering very low returns today.
You might switch to a target date fund with
a lower stock allocation.
They are comfortable with a high stock allocation after a long period of price increases, and they are comfortable with
a low stock allocation after a big drop in stock prices.
When stock prices go down, the investor feels pressures to
lower his stock allocation to levels lower than the levels that are optimal for his hopes of achieving his particular life plan.
For example, people often point out that timers need to guess right both as to when to
lower their stock allocation and when to increase it again.
Juicy Excerpt: Rationalization # 17: Using Valuations to Set One's Stock Allocation Would Have Caused One To Go with
a Low Stock Allocation for the Entire Time - Period from 1996 through 2008.
It's titled Is It Possible to Get «Stock» at
a Low Stock Allocation as the Market Takes Off?
Valuation - Informed Indexing # 384 By Rob Bennett Buy - and - Holders worry that, if
they lower their stock allocations when stock prices go sky - high, they might miss out on gains in the event that prices continue heading upward.
But if you are approaching retirement, perhaps your new target is
a lower stock allocation, such as 60 %.
With a shorter time horizon you may be able to have a higher spending rate and / or
a lower stock allocation and still maintain the same degree of safety that you will not exhaust your funds.
Juicy Excerpt: Three, the compounding returns phenomenon grows the edge gained by going with
a low stock allocation at a time of high prices into a very large number over time.
So there is no penalty associated with going with
a low stock allocation or even a zero stock allocation for a time.
Anytime
you lower your stock allocation, you are going against that reality.