(Top) Observed trends (% per decade) over the period 1951 to 2003 in the contribution to
total annual precipitation from very wet days (i.e., corresponding to the 95th percentile and above).
For this reason, any delay in onset or early truncation of our rainy season (which typically runs
from October through May) can quickly result in diminished
annual precipitation totals; conversely, the occurrence of just a couple of additional storm events can lead to well - above
totals for the year.
Right panels show the predictability horizon for
annual mean
precipitation (above the dashed line), soil water averaged
from the surface, and
total water storage (below the dashed line), estimated
from the 39 individual 10 member hindcast experiments (red) and the 1st order Markov model with 10,000 ensemble members (black circle) for the b the northern, d southern, and f these difference indices.