Even if
the total effect of clouds has not been nailed down yet, it is obviously a small effect compared to the rest of the forcings and feedbacks in the system.
Not exact matches
As the area
of this
cloud cover grows, it reflects more
of the shortwave radiation; but as the
clouds get taller, their greenhouse
effect becomes more significant, counteracting about half
of their
total cooling
effect.»
The
total of -0.7 W / m ^ 2 is the same as the best observational (satellite)
total aerosol adjusted forcing estimate given in the leaked Second Order Draft
of AR5 WG1, which includes
cloud lifetime (2nd indirect) and other
effects.
Critics
of this result might argue that the solar forcing in these experiments is only based on the estimated change in
total irradiance, which might be an underestimate, or that does not include potential indirect amplifying
effects (via an ozone response to UV changes, or galactic cosmic rays affecting
clouds).
By the way, low
clouds in darkness increase surface temperature, sort
of like the inverse property
of commonly understood Cosmic ray
effect, not causing a cooling because there are more CR's, but rather a warming, which only low
clouds in
total darkness can do, so the probable CR temperature signal gets cancelled from one latitude dark vs bright region to the next.
However, even a smaller figure (I had calculated about 0.17 W / m ^ 2 based on your inflated figure for
total planetary albedo, but you can check it out) is still significant when compared with the
total flux imbalance, which I think is a more informative comparison than an arbitrarily selected change in
cloud cover, because it compares the sea ice reduction with the
effects of all climate variations that have been operating in recent years..
From the figures I took an average value
of 0.45 — but, hey, if you prefer to assume 0.35, that's OK, because it will not change the conclusion that the observed Arctic sea ice melt has not appreciably changed our planet's
total albedo, and that a very small change in
cloud cover would have a far greater
effect.
Cloud variations are obviously an important element on a global scale, but the effects of Arctic ice melting are important locally and also a non-trivial fraction of global albedo feedbacks, which are a contributor to total feedback that is smaller than those from water vapor and probably from cloud feedbacks, but not insignifi
Cloud variations are obviously an important element on a global scale, but the
effects of Arctic ice melting are important locally and also a non-trivial fraction
of global albedo feedbacks, which are a contributor to
total feedback that is smaller than those from water vapor and probably from
cloud feedbacks, but not insignifi
cloud feedbacks, but not insignificant.
The size and intensity
of the polar vortexes then has an
effect on the latitudinal position
of the jetstreams which then alters
total cloud quantities (and reflectance) so as to alter global albedo and thereby alter solar energy input to the oceans.
This
effect causes a
total swing
of about three percent change in
cloud cover.
Non-condensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25 %
of the
total terrestrial greenhouse
effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels
of atmospheric water vapor and
clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75 %
of the greenhouse
effect.
Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25 %
of the
total terrestrial greenhouse
effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperaturestructure that sustains the current levels
of atmospheric water vapor and
clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75 %
of the greenhouse
effect.
Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25 %
of the
total terrestrial greenhouse
effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels
of atmospheric water vapor and
clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75 %
of the greenhouse
effect.
Thus if the two mid latitude jets move equatorward at the same time as the ITCZ moves closer to the equator the combined
effect on global albedo and the amount
of solar energy able to penetrate the oceans will be substantial and would dwarf the other proposed
effects on albedo from changes in cosmic ray intensity generating changes in
cloud totals as per Svensmark and from suggested changes caused in upper
cloud quantities by changes in atmospheric chemistry involving ozone which various other climate sceptics propose.
It's true that
clouds account for roughly one - fifth
of the greenhouse
effect but gaseous water vapor accounts for more than one - half
of the
total effect.
There are only a handful
of published estimates for
total anthropogenic aerosol forcing, including first indirect and
cloud lifetime
effects.
Depending a bit how you weight the overlapping spectral absorptions
of the different greenhouse gases the contribution
of CO2 to the
total greenhouse
effect is about 20 % (with water vapour giving 50 % and 25 % for
clouds, which we are sure that Allègre realises are made
of condensate (liquid water and ice) and not vapour...).
Meanwhile, he continued, higher
cloud tops in
effect thicken the
total column
of cloud, and that means more trapping
of infrared or heat radiation that would otherwise exit to space.