It still sounds like a denialist meme to me to be able to say «sure, sheet ice is decreasing but it's not a problem because sea ice is increasing», and I've never heard the «
total ice mass» used outside that context.
Just a short list: — you go on and on about SMB causing a net reduction of sea level in Antarctica (and sometimes Greenland), completely ignoring that SMB is not
the total ice mass balance — you routinely mentioned that human emissions aren't increasing the CO2 concentration because those emissions didn't increase for several years in a row, but concentration did.
Each circular graph is proportional in area to
the total ice mass loss measured from each ice shelf, in gigatons per year, with the proportion of ice lost due to the calving of icebergs denoted by hatched lines and the proportion due to basal melting denoted in black.
However, despite this, the team reckon to have perhaps isolated a «global warming» signal in the accelerated run off of the Greenland Ice Mass — but only just, because the runoff at the edges is balanced by increasing central mass — again, they focus upon recent trends — a net loss of about 22 cubic kilometres in
total ice mass per year which they regard as statistically not significant — to find the «signal», and a contradiction to their ealier context of air temperature cycles.
I would suggest that a new proxy for heat being stored (or lost) from the Earth climate system be developed based on Total System Enthalpy, using a combination of moist enthalpy in the troposphere (after Pielke Sr.), ocean heat content, and
total ice mass on the planet.
No one but Jimmy expects more than 1 metre of sea level rise this century — and that is a small fraction of
the total ice mass.
By all means show the detail once we have people's attention but what needs to be understood is
the total ice mass loss.
Not exact matches
As a result, the coastal
ice caps and glaciers lose their melting
ice as run off 65 percent faster than they can recapture it — contributing to a loss of
ice equivalent to roughly 14 percent of the
total mass of Greenland.
«It doesn't change our estimates of the
total mass loss all over Greenland by that much, but it brings a more significant change to our understanding of where within the
ice sheet that loss has happened, and where it is happening now.»
Complementary analyses of the surface
mass balance of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative loss could raise sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a
total of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from glacial
ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate of sea level rise to the observed warming.
So, inferring the
ice mass change from the
total mass change requires a model of all the
mass flows within Earth.
Rising global temperatures have also made glaciers —
ice masses that currently occupy nearly 10 percent of the world's
total land area — increasingly unstable.
His «we do not know of a time with permanent
ice at the poles and CO2 above 1000pmmv» (except, of course, prior to the big thaw in snowball Earth), and the present rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 being c. 10x greater than previous
mass extinctions as far as we know (albeit the
total mass being less) are deeply worrying.
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The estimated 2010 or 2011 surface
mass imbalance (~ 300 Gt / yr) is comparable to the GRACE estimates of the
total mass loss (which includes
ice loss via dynamic effects such as the speeding up of outlet glaciers) of 248 ± 43 Gt / yr for the years 2005 - 2009 Chen et al, 2011.
The
total 2000 — 2008
mass loss of ~ 1500 gigatons, equivalent to 0.46 millimeters per year of global sea level rise, is equally split between surface processes (runoff and precipitation) and
ice dynamics.
It's also possible that the calving patterns mean more than the
total mass of the
ice.
One has to delve deeply into the appendix of Chapter 11 of the TAR to find out what these extra 18 cm entail: they include a «
mass balance uncertainty» and an «
ice dynamic uncertainty», where the latter is simply assumed to be 10 % of the
total computed
mass loss of the Greenland
ice sheet.
The acceleration increased the
mass loss from 5 km3
ice / year in 1996 (12) to 36 km
ice / year in 2005 (Table 1), which is 6 % of Greenland's
total accumulation.
Top: The
total daily contribution to the surface
mass balance from the entire
ice sheet (blue line, Gt / day).
In regards to the cryosphere, as the net
ice mass on the planet has been declining steadily, this must be taken into account as part of the
total energy mix.
Its
ice loss in 2003 was only 0.03 % of its
total mass — well within long - term variability throughout its history.
Annual net balance on eight North Cascades glaciers during the 1984 - 1994 period has been determined by measurement, of
total mass loss from firn and
ice melt and, of residual snow depth at the end of the summer season.
The figure below shows the
total amount of surface (red) and bottom (yellow) melt through 1 August 2008 measured at seven sea
ice mass balance buoys.
Perhaps with all that is known now, someone will propose a well - defined multivariate test entailing all relevant global data (including Antarctic
ice extent and
total Antarctic
ice mass, mean and extremal rainfall everywhere, mean and extremal cyclonic storms everywhere.)
In addition, the running sum
total of the accumulated
mass change over the Greenland
Ice Sheet is shown on a graph overlay in gigatons.
I got a most probable value of 1.55 C / doubling, a 17 % to 83 % range of 1.41 C to 3.27 C / doubling, and a 5 % to 95 % range of 1.18 C to 6.2 C / doubling... not far from your values (but I assumed a little higher
total heat accumulation, including deep ocean uptake equal to 10 % of the 0 - 2000M value, and some additonal heat for
ice melt and land
mass warming).
How «small» that is would depend on the
total mass and area of the land based
ice.
For example, Martín - Español et al. (2017) find that the
total mass trend for the East Antarctic
Ice Sheet was a gain of +57 Gt per year during 2003 - 2013, which is 4 times the rate of gain assessed for 1992 - 2011.
The
total global
ice mass lost from Greenland, Antarctica and Earth's glaciers and
ice caps during the study period was about 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles), adding about 0.5 inches (12 millimeters) to global sea level.
1) Latent heat of fusion (melting
ice) there is more
total sea
ice in the world at the moment [know it is not all the
ice] 2) Dry continental land
masses -LSB-?]
Current
total ice - loss in Greenland is running at an estimated 200 Gte / yr and Antarctica at 150 Gte / yr (with
ice mass gain in the east and loss in the west — with some estimates of a net gain)-- at that rate of 1mm / yr, by 2100 the global
ice - loss would raise sea level by a little over 3 inches.
This represents a net loss of
ice thickness exceeding 14 m or 20 - 40 % of their
total volume since 1984 due to negative
mass balances.
Is it fair to say that
total Antarctic
ice mass is the most important quantity to measure?
Pritchard points out that basal melt is a control on
total mass waste ``... through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent
ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow.»
The papers do not address the
total mass balance of the
ice sheets, and the authors admit that the ablation at the edges may offset the gains on the interior.
This land area, representing about 2 % of the Antarctic land
mass and even less of its
total ice sheet, is expected to warm and lose
ice while the other 98 % gains
ice.