If thermal expansion is no longer contributing, you would expect either
less total sea level rise or a much greater contribution from melting ice.
AR4, 1993 - 2003: Thermal expansion 1.6 Glaciers and ice caps 0.77 Greenland ice sheet 0.21 Antarctic ice sheet 0.21 Sum 2.8
Observed total sea level rise 3.1
Glaciers and ice caps contributed 28 % of
total sea level rise compared to 14 % combined for Greenland and Antarctica for 1993 - 2003, using IPCC 4th assessment numbers, or GIC 33 % / Greenland and Antarctica 20 % for 2006 using Meier et al (Science 2007) numbers.
That's 5 per cent of
total sea level rise.
«This acceleration, driven mainly by accelerated melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double
the total sea level rise by 2100 as compared to projections that assume a constant rate — to more than 60 cm instead of about 30.»
To close the sea level budget,
total sea level rise (hTOT observed by altimeter satellites) should match the steric component (hSTERIC observed by Argo) plus the mass component (hMASS calculated from GRACE satellite measurements of the Earth's gravity field).
The grey line is
the total sea level rise minus the steric sea level rise (eg - what the mass component is expected to be).
The total sea level rise potential from the glaciers and ice caps is tiny, of course, compared to the ice sheets (50, 60, 70 cm — the number is shifting around.
The Challenger expedition measurements also revealed that thermal expansion of sea water caused by global warming contributed about 40 percent of
the total sea level rise seen in tide gauges from 1873 to 1955.
Between 1870 and 2000, the sea level increased by 1.7 millimeters per year on average, for
a total sea level rise of 221 millimeters (0.7 feet or 8.7 inches).
Since 1993, NASA satellites have shown that sea levels are rising more quickly, about 3 millimeters per year, for
a total sea level rise of 48 millimeters (0.16 feet or 1.89 inches) between 1993 and 2009.
«It is very likely that the global mean rate was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr — 1 between 1901 and 2010 for
a total sea level rise of 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m. Between 1993 and 2010, the rate was very likely higher at 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr — 1; similarly high rates likely occurred between 1920 and 1950.
It is very likely that the global mean rate was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr — 1 between 1901 and 2010 for
a total sea level rise of 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.»
If the trend continues,
the total sea level rise could be twice as high as previous projections by 2100.
The sea level rise from this contribution is subtracted from
the total sea level rise to obtain another estimate of steric sea level rise.