But this shows that level as the basement lowest possible amount, with the highest about matching
the total warming we have seen so far since the industrial revolution.
Direct CO2 radiative «greehouse» warming is surely a detectable signal, but only a small fraction of the total warming we've seen.
Not exact matches
Given the
total irrelevance of volcanic aerosols during the period in question, the only very modest effect of fossil fuel emissions and the many inconsistencies governing the data pertaining to solar irradiance, it seems clear that climate science
has no meaningful explanation for the considerable
warming trend we
see in the earlier part of the 20th century — and if that's the case, then there is no reason to assume that the
warming we
see in the latter part of that century could not also be due to either some as yet unknown natural force, or perhaps simply random drift.
John Carter August 8, 2014 at 12:58 am chooses to state his position on the greenhouse effect in the following 134 word sentence: «But given the [1] basics of the greenhouse effect, the fact that with just a very small percentage of greenhouse gas molecules in the air this effect keeps the earth about 55 - 60 degrees
warmer than it
would otherwise be, and the fact that through easily recognizable if [2] inadvertent growing patterns we
have at this point probably at least [3] doubled the
total collective amount in heat absorption and re-radiation capacity of long lived atmospheric greenhouse gases (nearly doubling
total that of the [4] leading one, carbon dioxide, in the modern era), to [5] levels not collectively
seen on earth in several million years — levels that well predated the present ice age and extensive earth surface ice conditions — it goes [6] against basic physics and basic geologic science to not be «predisposed» to the idea that this
would ultimately impact climate.»
As a number of scientific articles
have shown, most recently by Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows in the Journal of the Royal Society, limiting the world to 2 °C
warming most likely requires peaking
total global carbon emissions in the next 5 - 10 years followed by immediate reductions to near - zero by 2050 (
see Anderson and Bows emission trajectory options here, via David Roberts, and by David Hone here).
Here's step 3 again: 3) Comparing the
total warming over two different periods to
see which
has shown more
total warming.
3) Comparing the
total warming over two different periods to
see which
has shown more
total warming.
Remember that when you add up all the specific impacts of the type that we
have been reviewing here, the
total economic costs at 40C of
warming — which we
would expect to reach sometime into the 22nd century — are estimated by the IPCC to be about 1 — 5 % of global GDP (
See WG2 SPM, page 17)
However, since the IPCC provides us with the 95 % confidence range of the
total net anthropogenic forcing in Figure 1, we can account for the uncertainties which concern Lindzen, and evaluate how much
warming we «should
have seen» by now.
This long time constant is mandatory to their claims since if the time constant is short we
would have already
seen essentially all the impact from half a doubling of CO2 which, using their numbers, is more than half of the
total 0.7 C of
warming they claim.
In the Washington Times in 2007 he said that his film
would change history, and predicted that «in five years the idea that the greenhouse effect is the main reason behind global
warming will be
seen as
total bunk.»
(Part of the How to Talk to a Global
Warming Skeptic guide) Objection: Taking into account the logarithmic effect of CO2 on temperature, the 35 percent increase we
have already
seen in CO2 concentrations represents about three - quarters of the
total...
We
have seen a
total linear
warming of 0.041 C per decade or 0.66 C over the entire 160 - year HadCRUT record (this
has occurred in 3 statistically indistinguishable 30 - year
warming cycles, with 30 - year cycles of slight cooling in between, as Girma
has shown us graphically).