In 2013, the S&P 500 closed at a record high at the same time that the 10 - year
U.S. Treasury bond yield closed at a record low.
With the 20 - year AAA corporate bond and 30 - year
Treasury bond yields rising, they'll become increasingly better than stock dividend yields.
European government bond and U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields are trading at their highest levels in more than two months and the U.S. 30 - year
Treasury bond yield reached a high for the year on Tuesday.
With 30 - year
Treasury bonds yielding just 3 percent despite widespread predictions of a Federal Reserve rate hike, high - dividend stocks continue to present an appetizing option for many investors.
The following scatterplot
of Treasury bond yields and subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns demonstrates this regularity, in data since 1940.
Average rates have declined in recent months, in line
with Treasury bond yields, as uncertainty has surrounded President Donald Trump's tax and infrastructure policies and their ability to stimulate faster economic growth.
Given that a long - term bank CD or US
Treasury Bond yields more, you could have gotten a higher rate of return with another type of investment.
If we lived in a world
where treasury bonds yielded 10 % and most blue - chip stocks had 2 % dividend yields and 4 % earnings yields, I'd shut the heck up about dividend stocks and start writing about the exhilarating world of fixed income that gets everyone's juices flowin».
Using the 10 - year U.S.
Treasury Bond yield as the proxy for interest rates, Exhibit 1 shows the historical performance of the S&P 500 Low Volatility and S&P 500 indices in periods of significantly increased interest rates.
At the same time, the U.S. 10 - year
Treasury bond yield dipped from 2.43 % to 2.34 % week - over-week, while WTI oil prices jumped to a 2 1/2 - year high near $ 56.
Of course, it's not really risk - free;
when Treasury bond yields rise, the banks will have a capital loss, but hey — Bernanke says rates will be ultra-low for an «extended period,» so banks should be able to extract at least one more year's bonus out of it, probably.
Also funds and ETFs that hold corporate bonds and hedge by selling treasury bond futures may lose value if the spread between corporate bond yields and
treasury bond yields widens.
The importance of the 10 - year
Treasury bond yield goes beyond the return on the instrument as it is used as a proxy for many other important financial matters, such as mortgages and investor confidence.
Keep in mind, 200 - basis point increases in the 10 - year
Treasury bond yield marked the peak in each of the aforementioned leveraging booms.
But last week the benchmark 10 - year U.S.
Treasury bond yield jumped to a six month high around 3.75 pct, while the spread between 2 - year and 10 - year bond yields widened to a record 2.75 percentage points.
The U.S. 10 - year
Treasury bond yield started this week higher (on June 22, 2015) at 2.3 %, as a new proposal by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has put the negotiations back on track and given optimism to an eventual settlement before the June 30, 2015, deadline.
The chart below shows the decline in the US Treasury yield over the last 21 years split between the real yield, as estimated by the Bloomberg Barclays US Inflation Linked Bonds Average Annual Yield, and the level of inflation expectations implied by the 10 - year
nominal Treasury Bond yield.
The stock market's average dividend yield isn't quite as high as the 10 - year
Treasury bond yield currently, but dividend stocks offer one thing bonds can't: the prospect for future growth.
Interest rate sensitive stocks (like telecom and utilities) were down as well — 10 - year
treasury bond yields moved from just over 2 % in early September to over 2.3 % by the end of the month.
«
If Treasury bond yields stabilize in this 2.4 percent to 2.5 percent range that they've been in since Thanksgiving, you are back to the 2015 levels,» says Costello.
«
Treasury bond yields fell markedly after signs the economy was weaker than what markets had previously thought allowing fixed mortgage rates to follow this week with the 15 - year fixed and 5 - year ARM setting new historical lows,» says Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac.
Contributing to the stock market's agita so far this year has been the prospect that the 10 - year
US Treasury Bond Yield may be on the verge of rising above 3.00 %, a level...
In the United States, the 30 - year
Treasury bond yield reached a record low (since the Federal Reserve series began in 1972) of 2.25 % on January 30.
During the 1990s, the Fed model gained popularity because of the CAEY's wonderful fit with the 10 - year
Treasury bond yield over the period 1965 — 1999, as illustrated in Figure 7, Panel A. Panel B spans the much longer period of 1881 — 2017.
As of May 31, 2017, the yield of the S&P Current 2 - Year Canada Sovereign Bond Index was just 0.7 %, compared with the U.S. two -
year Treasury Bond yield of 1.28 %, as the U.S. Fed contemplated an additional rate hike as soon as June 2017.
There is no doubt that, based on pure, cold, logical data, stocks are the single best long - term performing asset class for disciplined investors who are not swayed by emotion, focus on earnings and dividends, and never pay too much for a stock, often as measured on a conservative beginning earnings yield relative to
the Treasury bond yield basis.
Perhaps instead of having 50 % of your assets in
a Treasury bond yielding 2.5 % in a bull market, you could double your money by allocating more to blue chip dividend stocks that pay more than a 2 % yield and provide stronger capital appreciation.