One could still look for station changes and start a
new trend calculation at the date of the station change.
After an Excel analysis of the absolute and anomaly temperature dataset, which can be downloaded from the same web page that produced the above chart, that
NOAA trend calculation can not be confirmed with any confidence.
If you refer to Section 3.7.4 you will see that it is not just Church & White that are being cited and that in Fig 3.14 Church & White data yields the lowest SLR through this 1920 - 50 period, hitting a momentary peak of just 2.3 mm / yr from 18 - year
lnear trend calculations.
While there is a large rising trend since the mid 1940's in observed category 4 - 5 numbers in the Atlantic, our view is that these data are not reliable
for trend calculations, until they have been further assessed for data homogeneity problems, such as those due to changing observing practices.
Simultaneously,
a trending calculation is applied to arrive at a sales trajectory.
Simultaneously,
a trending calculation is applied to arrive at a computerized sales trajectory.
I don't know of any physical logic for starting
the trend calculation in 1958, it's just the first year Hansen has on his chart.
It's a natural process, but beginning
a trend calculation with such an event obliterates the background trend in subsequent years.
All blue columns representing temperature trends use at least 100 months of temperature measurements for
the trend calculations (using less than 100 can produce extreme volatility for calculated trends - the less than 100 datapoint calculations are very interesting but can be quite misleading).
He states that windy conditions can blow away the UHI and thus he has accounted for a one way effect for generating higher Tmin for clear evenings, but what specifically accounts for the negative of that proposition that he uses in
his trend calculations.
Two text boxes into which you can enter the start and end date for
the trend calculation.
I checked
the trend calculation also from 1915 to 1945 since that avoids the effects of the Katmai eruption at the beginning of the period.
2)
Your trend calculation ignores that 1910 was very close to a solar minimum while 1940 is close to a solar maximum.
The Foster and Rahmstorf calculation reduces the trend uncertainty because it takes out a lot of the confounding factors which act as noise in
the trend calculation.
After posting this chart and an accompanying article, it just seemed that something was likely wrong with
the trend calculation produced by NOAA's web site.
But that
your trend calculation is not significant (does not exclude zero, ie notrend) from there on!?
They removed 2010 from
the trend calculation and computed their numbers based on 1910 to 2009 and then also from 1880 to 2009.
A similar result follows from using the deniers» choice, using data through 1998 for
the trend calculation and extrapolating that from 1999 through to the present.