The same issue has played out in discussions of hurricane
trends in a warming world.
Not exact matches
With consumption growing, oil supplies tight, and the
world in a
warming trend, the search is on for better energy sources — clean coal, safe nuclear reactors, and more far - reaching ideas like artificial photosynthesis.
Northern latitude tundra and boreal forests are experiencing an accelerated
warming trend that is greater than
in other parts of the
world.
«At face - value, many of the climate
trends in Antarctica seem counter-intuitive for the
warming world.
Velders says his team came up with higher
warming estimates than IPCC because their model accounts for
trends that others don't, such as the faster - than expected adoption of HFCs driven by the Montreal Protocol, and an air - conditioning boom
in the developing
world.
Global
warming is a long term
trend in rising temperatures around the
world.
2) Three years ago, I tried to get a handle on whether UHI was responsible for the recent
warming trend in most of the temperature datasets by comparing the
trends for the UAH / MSU 2LT channel and the Jones et al. surface data for some of the
world's «empty places».
These records show both the influence of the long - term
trend in global
warming — caused by the continued release of heat - trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere — as well as an exceptionally strong El Niño that is altering weather around the
world.
Even though we will continue to see cold outbreaks
in a
warming world, the
trend in the vast majority of the cities analyzed shows that these extreme cold nights are happening less often.
«Despite colder than average temperatures
in any one part of the
world, temperatures over the planet as a whole continue the rapid
warming trend we've seen over the last 40 years,» said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
in New York City, at the press conference.
Whether any of these
trends warm up to you or not, they definitely exist — and they represent the new
world order
in fashion that is the bloggisphere.
Their views of sea
trends through this century still vary widely, while they agree, almost to a person, that centuries of eroding ice and rising seas are nearly a sure thing
in a
warming world.
This week, PNAS published our paper Increase of Extreme Events
in a
Warming World, which analyses how many new record events you expect to see
in a time series with a
trend.
The curves, displaying results using both Goddard's temperature data and those from the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction
in England, show a much smoother
trend toward a
warmer world (with very clear drops associated with volcanic eruptions).
Even if the study were right... (which it is not) mainstream scientists use * three * methods to predict a global
warming trend... not just climate computer models (which stand up extremely well for general projections by the way) under
world - wide scrutiny... and have for all intents and purposes already correctly predicted the future -(Hansen 1988
in front of Congress and Pinatubo).
Arctic researchers caution that there is something of a paradox
in Arctic
trends: while the long - term fate of the region may be mostly sealed, no one should presume that the recent sharp
warming and seasonal ice retreats that have caught the
world's attention will continue smoothly into the future.
I have to raise an objection to the phrase «the only region of the
world that has defied global
warming» — that might be neglecting a certain area
in the Pacific where England 2014 has identified a very obvious point where the «Pacific conveyor» was bringing
in the last decade up a lot of cold water from the deep ocean and has possibly played a major role
in the specific
trends for that period.
But for the moment, twin
trends are exacerbating the threat: the urban rush
in developing countries,
in which millions of poor people are settling on fragile slopes and floodplains, and rising odds of rain falling
in dangerous downpours
in a
warming world.
This view is echoed by Kerry Emanuel
in comments on the paper
in the Washington Post, where he suggests that the impact of wind shear changes relative to
warming SSTs
in the real
world, as diagnosed from
trends observed thus far, may be overstated by the V+S study:
Thus, modeling exercises have for decades now shown some pretty persistent patterns of recurrence, such as drying
trends under
warming in certain areas (notably the Mediterranean basin, including the Middle East) and the American Southwest — patterns we see
in the real
world.
has an excellent overview of energy
trends in the
world — and what would need to happen for the
world to curtail its greenhouse gas emissions and avoid significant global
warming.
With the uneven
warming trends likely to continue, poor nations have a case for demanding rich
world assistance to cope with climate change... Poor countries have «contributed the least, but
in terms of temperature effects, they will suffer the most».
Generally, the remaining uncorrected effect from urban heat islands is now believed to be less than 0.1 C, and
in some parts of the
world it may be more than fully compensated for by other changes
in measurement methods.4 Nevertheless, this remains an important source of uncertainty.The
warming trend observed over the past century is too large to be easily dismissed as a consequence of measurement errors.
TLT has been shown to be a near perfect match
trend for the only untampered surface data
in the
world, USCRN over the USA, thus validating the use of over TTT which is not
trend matched and has a spurious
warming trend.
They are (1) the
trend data inconclusiveness, (2) there are scientific grounds for eventual reduction of shear winds
in a
warming world, and (3) possible eventual temperature difference decreases
in a
warming world.
Global temperatures are a real mish mash and it woud be interesting to judge your comment against real life single series temperatures to see if it stands up, whereby it can be seen that some areas of the
world have not followed the
warming trend but their cooling signal has been smothered by a
warming one, probably from the thermometers placed
in newly urbanised areas.
«Despite colder than average weather
in any one part of the
world,» said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt, «temperatures over the planet as a whole continue the rapid
warming trend we have seen over the last 40 years.»
Exceeding the 400 parts per million level of worldwide atmospheric carbon dioxide later this decade continues a troubling
trend which brings the
world closer to the potential to reach a global
warming tipping point
in which global
warming accelerates rapidly as the potent greenhouse gas methane is liberated from the frozen state that it has been
in for millions of years.
If current
trends in global
warming continue unmitigated, some of the
world's most well - known and historically significant cultural landmarks — including the Statue of Liberty
in New York City, the Tower of London
in the United Kingdom, and the archaeological sites of Pompeii
in Italy — could be destroyed by rising global sea levels over the next 2,000 years, according to new research.
AP's Borenstein
in a PANIC: «Obama left with little time to curb global
warming»...» cooling
trend illustrates how fast the
world is
warming» — December 14, 2008
The study authors warn that the
world has 30 years to reverse the ominous
trend before global
warming surpasses the 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) target set at a 2009 climate summit
in Copenhagen.
Here are some additional linear regressions for some of the oldest data sets
in the
world - all show the same slight
warming trend over centuries and climate variability.
The fact that ARGO sampling pretty much misses out one of the fastest
warming regions
in the
world while having no such deficiencies
in regions of cooling means any analysis using only ARGO data will produce
trends lower than the true global average, unless the analysis somehow accounts for this bias.
«
In 1994, Nature magazine published a study of mine in which we estimated the underlying rate at which the world was warming by removing the impacts of volcanoes and El Niños (Christy and McNider 1994)... The result of that study indicated the underlying trend for 1979 - 1993 was +0.09 °C / decade which at the time was one third the rate of warming that should have been occurring according to estimates by climate model simulations.&raqu
In 1994, Nature magazine published a study of mine
in which we estimated the underlying rate at which the world was warming by removing the impacts of volcanoes and El Niños (Christy and McNider 1994)... The result of that study indicated the underlying trend for 1979 - 1993 was +0.09 °C / decade which at the time was one third the rate of warming that should have been occurring according to estimates by climate model simulations.&raqu
in which we estimated the underlying rate at which the
world was
warming by removing the impacts of volcanoes and El Niños (Christy and McNider 1994)... The result of that study indicated the underlying
trend for 1979 - 1993 was +0.09 °C / decade which at the time was one third the rate of
warming that should have been occurring according to estimates by climate model simulations.»
The pattern of temperatures shows a rise as the
world emerged from the last deglaciation,
warm conditions until the middle of the Holocene, and a cooling
trend over the next 5000 years that culminated around 200 years ago
in the Little Ice Age.
Just prior to the 2009 COP15 climate summit
in Copenhagen, then UK prime minister Gordon Brown told the
world: «We should never allow ourselves to lose sight of the catastrophe we face if present
warming trends continue.
As has been well documented, global
warming has gone AWOL and
in some regions of the
world, global cooling
trends have materialized, which scientists across the
world are starting to express concern with.
These
trends are expected to continue and even intensify
in a
warming world.
James Hansen, emporer of the NASA data for whom the rest of us are just «court jesters» dismissed both the restatement and the lack of
warming trend in the US as irrelevent because the US only makes up about 2 % of the
world's surface.
Keeling was a joke,
in less than two years of «data gathering» he claimed to have shown a
trend and concluded that man - made levels were rising — pretending to be measuring «pristine background levels of carbon dioxide» from the top of the
world's highest active volcano, surrounded by active volcanoes on top of a great hot spot creating volcanoes
in warm seas rocked by thousands of earthquakes every year.
, according to NASA scientists: «Coincidence, conspired to dampen
warming trends» — Excuse number 10 for global
warming «pause» or «standstill» — NASA's Gavin Schmidt & colleagues finds «that a combination of factors, by coincidence, conspired to dampen
warming trends in the real
world after about 1992» — Latest excuse for global temperature standstill mocked by skeptics: «Apparently, if you go back and rework all the forcings, taking into account new data estimates (add half a bottle of post-hoc figures) and «reanalyses» of old data (add a tablespoon of computer simulation) you can bridge the gap and explain away the pause.»
Even if the whole
world is
in a
warming trend can't there be a natural explanation or cause for this?
But over the last century, during which the IPCC claims the
world experienced more rapid
warming than any time
in the past two millennia, the
world did not experience significantly greater
trends in any of these extreme weather events.
More record highs than record lows is exactly what you'd expect
in a
warming world and the
trend has been tipping toward more and more highs compared to lows for decades.
The
trend line of real -
world temperature,
in bright blue, falls well below the entire orange region representing the interval of near - term global
warming predicted by the IPCC
in 1990.
A combination of factors, by coincidence, conspired to dampen
warming trends in the real
world after about 1992.
In other words, if it continues, the recent trend in sea ice loss may triple overall Arctic warming, causing large emissions in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature on the tundra, see «Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting; NSF issues world a wake - up call: «Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming»
In other words, if it continues, the recent
trend in sea ice loss may triple overall Arctic warming, causing large emissions in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature on the tundra, see «Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting; NSF issues world a wake - up call: «Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming»
in sea ice loss may triple overall Arctic
warming, causing large emissions
in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature on the tundra, see «Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting; NSF issues world a wake - up call: «Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming»
in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature on the tundra, see «Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting; NSF issues
world a wake - up call: «Release of even a fraction of the methane stored
in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming»
in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate
warming»).
«While they have been boosted by the underlying
warming trend, we don't have any strong evidence that the factors driving short - term Arctic variability will increase
in a
warming world.
assuming what you say about skeptics changing topic as you describe is accurate, and at this point I do we are talking about data that is less than 200 years old, out of which extraordinary claims are made as to how that data relates to distant past and future
trends tough sell assuming that all adjustments to the data are scientifically sound, It is very difficult for me to believe that measurements that have gone through so many iterations can be trusted to.0 and.00
in most other sciences, I doubt they would tough sell (the photo of the thermometer is downright funny)
in terms of goal post moving I observe predicted heat being re-branded as «missing» a prediction of no snow re-branded as more snow a
warming world re-branded to a «
warm, cold, we don't know what to expect»
world topped off with suggestions that one who thinks the above has some sort of psychological disorder extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence especially when you are teaching children that their
world is endangered
Third: There was no cooling
in the 1920s;
in fact that was the start of a multidecadal
warming trend that lasted until just after
World War II (followed by a brief cooling
trend, possibly due to increased aerosols dimming incoming sunlight together with some pretty big volcanic eruptions which did the same thing).