We conclude that the fact that
trends in thermometer - estimated surface warming over land areas have been larger than trends in the lower troposphere estimated from satellites and radiosondes is most parsimoniously explained by the first possible explanation offered by Santer et al. [2005].
Not exact matches
Running on two AAA batteries, the
thermometer keeps its last 20 readings stored
in its memory so you can keep track of
trends over time.
When they corrected the error, Wentz and Schabel derived a warming
trend of about 0.07 °C per decade, more
in line with surface
thermometers and climate models.
The warming
trend is the same
in rural and urban areas, measured by
thermometers and satellites, and by natural
thermometers.
The same issues have dogged other attempts by climate scientists to glean clues on climate
trends from bodies of data collected by satellites and weather balloons for other reasons (not to mention ongoing attempts to discern climate patterns
in tree rings, ice layers, and other natural substitutes for
thermometers; remember the «hockey stick» debate?).
SW fails to mention effects that may counter-act warming
trends, such as irrigation, better shielding of the
thermometers, and increased aerosol loadings,
in addition to forgetting the fact that forests were cut down on a large scale
in both Europe and North America
in the earlier centuries.
Alternatively, Mann should have confronted the divergence problem head on, and shown how the
trend in the adjustments to the
thermometer record had brought about the divergence.
Global temperatures are a real mish mash and it woud be interesting to judge your comment against real life single series temperatures to see if it stands up, whereby it can be seen that some areas of the world have not followed the warming
trend but their cooling signal has been smothered by a warming one, probably from the
thermometers placed
in newly urbanised areas.
Using a record ending
in 1995, Wentz showed a slight warming
trend of 0.07 ⁰ C / decade, about half of what was being observed by surface
thermometers.
MM04 failed to acknowledge other independent data supporting the instrumental
thermometer - based land surface temperature observations, such as satellite - derived temperature
trend estimates over land areas
in the Northern Hemisphere (Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Box 2.1, p. 106) that can not conceivably be subject to the non-climatic sources of bias considered by them.
The Surface Stations project has revealed that many of the
thermometer shelters used for calculating temperature
trends are currently located near artificial heating sources, such as the ones
in the Marysville, California station shown above (the
thermometer is at the point labelled MMTS Shelter).
Homewood found that all three operational rural
thermometers in Paraguay had been adjusted by NASA to show a warming
trend where one did not exist before.
What they found was that the tree rings showed a downward
trend in temperatures starting at this time while the actual
thermometer readings showed a temperature increase.
See, the first thing to do is do determine what the temperature
trend during the recent
thermometer period (1850 — 2011) actually is, and what patterns or
trends represent «data»
in those
trends (what the earth's temperature / climate really was during this period), and what represents random «noise» (day - to - day, year - to - random changes
in the «weather» that do NOT represent «climate change»), and what represents experimental error
in the plots (UHI increases
in the temperatures,
thermometer loss and loss of USSR data, «metadata» «M» (minus) records getting skipped that inflate winter temperatures, differences
in sea records from different measuring techniques, sea records vice land records, extrapolated land records over hundreds of km, surface temperature errors from lousy stations and lousy maintenance of surface records and stations, false and malicious time - of - observation bias changes
in the information.)
Also just noticed Table VI
in the Chase paper where they give the
trends for the surface
thermometers.
The warming only comes
in because one very southernly island is
in the baseline (AND used to fill
in grid boxes... I've run the code...) but taken out recently (so grid boxes must look elsewhere for «
in fill» and elsewhere is airports closer to the equator...) IIRC, Campbell Island about 68 S. Oh, and
in Canada they use ONE
thermometer in «The Garden Spot of the Arctic» to get that warming
trend north of 65 N.
2nd Conclusion does not appear to be supported with data referenced
in Section 3.2; Specifically the conclusion «But, this effect is swamped by the larger effect of siting bias
in the non-compliant stations, particularly
in the
trends of the Tmin, suggesting a sensitivity to heat sinks within the
thermometer viewshed, which is the basis of the Leroy classification system».
A
thermometer could be placed
in a frying pan and yet as long as it has dynamic range available it'll still be able to register a
trend in temperature and that
trend will be separable from the frying pan component.
3) However, even if the actual variance
in TSI during that period was less than 4 Watts per square metre the fact is that various changes
in temperature
trend did occur and the shape of the chart would remain so on the basis of real world observations we must accept that the lower the range of TSI involved then the more sensitive the Earth is as a water based
thermometer.
The global temperature anomaly certainly shows an increase since systematic
thermometer records began
in the tail end of the period of extreme cold known as the «little ice age», but just as
in the medieval warming period, local temperature series need not correspond to the global
trend.
assuming what you say about skeptics changing topic as you describe is accurate, and at this point I do we are talking about data that is less than 200 years old, out of which extraordinary claims are made as to how that data relates to distant past and future
trends tough sell assuming that all adjustments to the data are scientifically sound, It is very difficult for me to believe that measurements that have gone through so many iterations can be trusted to.0 and.00
in most other sciences, I doubt they would tough sell (the photo of the
thermometer is downright funny)
in terms of goal post moving I observe predicted heat being re-branded as «missing» a prediction of no snow re-branded as more snow a warming world re-branded to a «warm, cold, we don't know what to expect» world topped off with suggestions that one who thinks the above has some sort of psychological disorder extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence especially when you are teaching children that their world is endangered
The warming
trend is the same
in rural and urban areas, measured by
thermometers and satellites, and by natural
thermometers.