Given our understanding of the climate system and the mechanisms involved in abrupt climate change, this committee concludes that human activities could
trigger abrupt climate change.
New research shows that small fluctuations in the sizes of ice sheets during the last ice age were enough to
trigger abrupt climate change.
Enormous amounts of freshwater were released into the North Atlantic following deglaciation, and an influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic Deep Water formation zone can potentially
trigger abrupt climate changes.
Not exact matches
Project leader Enno Schefuß from the MARUM — Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen, Germany, adds: «The project was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in the priority programme «Integrated Analysis of Interglacial
Climate Dynamics (INTERDYNAMIC)» with the aim to identify potential mechanisms
triggering abrupt changes under current climatic conditions.
You do seem not quite up to date with current thinking on
abrupt climate changes (now I'm referring to your polemic question «Were all of these
triggered by Lake Agassiz dam bursts?»
You do seem not quite up to date with current thinking on
abrupt climate changes (now I'm referring to your polemic question «Were all of these
triggered by Lake Agassiz dam bursts?»
The first report knew, and commented on, the possibilities of gradual
climate change pushing ecosystems or economies over thresholds and
triggering abrupt responses, but the new report focuses on such tipping points in our societies and environment.
Even the relatively staid IPCC has warned of such a scenario: «The possibility of
abrupt climate change and / or
abrupt changes in the Earth system
triggered by
climate change, with potentially catastrophic consequences, can not be ruled out.
Furthermore, such an increase might be enough, the Stern Review explains, to
trigger a shutdown of the ocean's thermohaline circulation warming Western Europe, creating
abrupt climate change, thereby plunging Western Europe into Siberian - like conditions.
I have read the NAS link you provided and I agree with it, especially when it says
abrupt climate change is most likely
triggered by forcing
changes [I said something like that on my first February 10 post here].
The scientists stress that more work is needed to determine whether
changes in ocean circulation initiated the
abrupt climate changes or were an intermediary effect initially
triggered by something else.
It is the potential for effects like this to
trigger abrupt changes in the global
climate that scientists will be studying, he told reporters today.
He spoke with journalist Kim Martineau about his latest book, «The Great Ocean Conveyor: Discovering the
Trigger for
Abrupt Climate Change.»
As if this were not daunting enough, in 2002 the US National Academies of Science not only endorsed the IPCC's conclusions but produced a new report entitled
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable surprises, which argued that global warming may trigger «large, abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic events» such as severe droughts and f
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable surprises, which argued that global warming may
trigger «large,
abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic events» such as severe droughts and f
abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic events» such as severe droughts and floods.
That's because the risk of
triggering abrupt changes in the
climate system — such as rapid sea level rise or widespread droughts — becomes high above one of two degrees warming.
Previous reviews (6 ⇓ ⇓ ⇓ — 10) have defined «
abrupt climate change» as occurring «when the
climate system is forced to cross some threshold,
triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the
climate system itself and faster than the cause» (8), which is a case of bifurcation (i.e., one that focuses on equilibrium properties, implying some degree of irreversibility).
This is central to the ability to improve the quantitative understanding of the thresholds that can
trigger abrupt changes and the probability distribution
changes of the extreme
climate events with the slow varying
climate states and forcings that can be monitored.
Such
abrupt state
changes are well - documented for ecosystems at many scales, and can be
triggered by a variety of forcing factors — including pollution, resource extraction, deforestation, and other land use
changes — with
climate change being only one of them (Scheffer et al., 2009; Lenton et al., 2008; Barnosky et al., 2012).
Third, lack of quantitative understanding of the thresholds that
trigger abrupt changes and causes of extreme
climate events has limited our ability to provide process - based assessments of the risk of
abrupt changes.
Technically, an
abrupt climate change occurs when the
climate system is forced to cross some threshold,
triggering a transition to a new state at a rate determined by the
climate system itself and faster than the cause.
The text below discusses the evidence for: (1)
abrupt changes in the circulation and (2) steady
changes in the circulation that may, in turn,
trigger relatively
abrupt changes in
climate in regions of large spatial gradients in surface weather.
Such rainfall regimes cover nearly half of the global land, where either a gradual
climate change across the ecosystem thresholds or a strong perturbation due to either extreme
climate events, land use, or diseases could
trigger abrupt ecosystem
changes.
The causes of
abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the
triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes.
The dynamical mechanism — control variables that push the system past a threshold
triggering a cascade of
changes — is the key to understanding the
changing trajectory of 20th century, the current hiatus,
abrupt variability over the Holocene and longer and the uncertainties in anticipating 21st century
climate evolution and longer.
abrupt climate change occurring «over periods as short as decades or years,» which could be brought on by positive feedbacks
triggered by such events as ice sheet collapse on a large scale, the collapse of part of the Gulf Stream, dieback of the Amazon forest, or coral reef die - off.
Both
abrupt changes in the physical
climate system and steady
changes in
climate that can
trigger abrupt changes in other physical, biological, and human systems present possible threats to nature and society.