It is well known that El Nino events, such as the 2006 El Nino, tend to be associated with stronger westerly winds aloft in the tropical Atlantic, which is unfavorable for
tropical cyclone development.
When El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific like in 2015, tropical cyclone activity across the North Atlantic basin tends to be suppressed due to increased wind shear, an unfavorable condition for
tropical cyclone development.
An increase in the width of the tropics could increase the area affected by tropical storms (hurricanes), or could change climatological
tropical cyclone development regions and tracks.
«Our results show that a greening of the Sahara with reduced dust loadings lead to more favorable conditions for
tropical cyclone development,» says Francesco S.R. Pausata, researcher at the Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University.
Not exact matches
The article provides a solid review of the recent
developments in the science focusing on potential climate change impacts on
tropical cyclones.
Cyclone Center's primary goal is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent
development of
tropical cyclone intensity data.
More specifically, an anomalously large (small) AWP reduces (enhances) the vertical wind shear in the hurricane main
development region and increases (decreases) the moist static instability of the troposphere, both of which favor (disfavor) Atlantic
tropical cyclone activity.
Could this at some point lead to embedded «
tropical cyclone»
development within the core of such a system even outside the tropics and perhaps even removed from the ocean if a sufficient stream of moisture is flowing in the atmosphere?
If
tropical cyclone occurrence decreases, less of the heat is dissipated, and unless ocean circulation in some way compensates by transporting the additional thermal energy elsewhere (i.e. for example out of the «main
development region» of the Atlantic) some day a storm will tap the enhanced energy source.
«Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of
tropical cyclone activity are essential for the
development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within
cyclone prone regions.
The
development of a new
tropical cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of
tropical cyclone climatology at higher temporal resolution than was previously possible.
Earlier today, I posted an article about how — and even if — global warming is currently affecting the formation,
development, and strength of
tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons).
Using a modern
tropical cyclone model (simulating the famous hurricane Andrew of 1992, which was forecast to make landfall around Miami) they find
cyclone modification is indeed theoretically capable of reducing hurricane
development and storm damage.
The Lesser Antilles intersect the «main
development region» for Atlantic hurricane formation, making storm data there «our best source for historical variability of
tropical cyclones in the
tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries,» the researchers explain.
Moreover, 370 years of
tropical cyclone data from the Lesser Antilles (the eastern Caribbean island chain that bisects the main
development region for landfalling U.S. hurricanes) show no long - term trend in either power or frequency but a 50 - to 70 - year wave pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a mode of natural climate variability.
How much dust and dry air does it take to hamper convection, is there a specific time in the
development of the
tropical cyclone where the ingest of the dust and dry air is most destructive?