The southern hemisphere
tropical cyclone season normally runs from November to April and so far this season activity in the South Pacific Ocean has been relatively low.
«We foresee another very active Atlantic basin
tropical cyclone season in 2006,» states a report from a team including long - time forecasting guru William Gray of Colorado State University.
It has been an unusually quiet
tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere this year, as we discussed in detail in a February 28 post.
TheWashington Post's Jason Samenow described it as «the most extreme
tropical cyclone season on record in the Northern Hemisphere.»
These events included historic droughts in East Africa, the southern United States and northern Mexico; an above - average
tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic hurricane basin and a below - average season in the eastern North Pacific; and the wettest two - year period (2010 — 2011) on record in Australia.
The Central Pacific also saw an above - average
tropical cyclone season, with 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, the most active season since reliable record - keeping began in 1971.
It is the strongest storm of the 2005 - 06 Southern Hemisphere
tropical cyclone season thus far, and one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire
tropical cyclone seasons, * particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season.
Not exact matches
Gabriele Villarini, UI associate professor of civil and environmental engineering and corresponding author on the paper, says researchers honed in on predicting the impacts of
tropical cyclones because that information is generally more useful than typical forecasts that predict how many storms are expected in a
season.
Webster is now studying the duration of the hurricane
season each year, from the first
tropical cyclone to the last.
With the Nov. 30 end of the 2014 hurricane
season just weeks away, a University of Iowa researcher and his colleagues have found that North Atlantic
tropical cyclones in fact have a significant effect on the Midwest.
The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane
season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each
tropical cyclone.
The Accumulated
Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of
tropical cyclone activity also indicated a below - average
season in the North Atlantic.
The number of
tropical cyclones was more than the eight that occurred during the 2014
season.
NOAA has issued its annual forecast for the hurricane
season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is varying the frequency of Atlantic
tropical cyclones, and that the present high level of activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation.
Those conditions just tend to be more favorable during the officially recognized six - month
season, which encompasses about 97 percent of
tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.
According to Accuweather, however, hurricane
season in the Central Pacific lasts from approximately June 1 to November 3, with the chances of a
tropical cyclone peaking in August.
Summer (Green
Season): December - February These months sometimes experience the highest rainfall, and can also be accompanied by thunderstorms and the occasional
tropical cyclone.
The clear seasonality in TCs («hurricane
season») with highest activities during the summer is one of the strongest pieces of empirical evidence that higher temperatures give more favourable conditions for
tropical cyclones (After all, TCs only form in the warm tropics...).
NOAA also forecasts a high hurricane activity for the remainder of the
season, and time will show if this
season will match the 2004 in terms of number of
tropical cyclones.
I wonder if the fact the higher SSTs will lead to somewhat longer
seasons (and 2005 certainly had that), and larger sea - surface area where TCs might form, would serve to counteract the effect you describe, and still lead, net - net, to an increase in the number of
tropical cyclones with higher SSTs.
In addition, statistics on the
seasons of
tropical cyclone genesis and their landfall locations from AD 1945 — 2013 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean region reveal that in summer,
tropical cyclones tend to make landfall along coastal regions north of Fujian Province, eastern China; however, in autumn and winter,
cyclones tend to be guided further southward to make landfall in southern China (Hainan), Vietnam, and the Philippines.
For example, as I mentioned in the earlier post, wind shear can cap the rising air in a
cyclone, choking it off, preventing a full - blown
tropical cyclone from forming — this is one reason we've seen fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic this
season.
«In the North Atlantic region, where
tropical cyclone records are longer and generally of better quality than elsewhere, power dissipation by
tropical cyclones is highly correlated with sea surface temperature during hurricane
season in the regions where storms typically develop»
As NOAA explains «The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane
season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each
tropical cyclone.»
It could be a simple event such as extreme precipitation or a
tropical cyclone or a more complex sequence of a late onset of the monsoon coupled with prolonged dry spells within the rainy
season.
As the ITCZ migrates more than 500 kilometres (300 mi) from the equator during the respective hemisphere's summer
season, increasing Coriolis force makes the formation of
tropical cyclones within this zone more possible.
Add a four - month annual monsoon
season and top off with a climate change - driven sea level rise and more frequent, powerful
tropical cyclones, and you're looking at catastrophic flooding.
The number of
tropical cyclones during 2013 was slightly above average, but the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest
season since 1994.
Unfortunately, despite this clear empirical evidence, the climate change and global warming doomsday alarmists attempt to portray the 2017
season as a sign of CO2 - induced climate catastrophe - and that is not being well accepted by the actual hurricane experts (here, here, here) who have been on the front lines of
tropical cyclone activity and impact research.
If a noted climate scientist explains multi-year changes in ocean heat storage in terms of «
tropical variablity» or «weather», I would suspect that any particularly intense
tropical cyclone (or
season, or multiple
seasons) would surely also fall into this category of «
tropical variability».
During the 13 hurricane
seasons from 1982 to 1994, 71 (or about 5.5 per year) Atlantic Basin
tropical cyclones passed over 28.25 ºC SST and 16 (or 22.5 %) of them, became major hurricanes.
Re # 112: «If a noted climate scientist explains multi-year changes in ocean heat storage in terms of «
tropical variablity» or «weather», I would suspect that any particularly intense
tropical cyclone (or
season, or multiple
seasons) would surely also fall into this category of «
tropical variability».»