Sentences with phrase «tropical mean trends»
Therefore, there are reasons to expect that there has been a downward trend in moist stability in the Atlantic over the past few decades, independent of the reliability of the tropical mean trend in the reanalysis.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ Not exact matches
No, you are wrong, RSS is consistent with models only if we look at global trends, but RSS trend for tropical «hot - spot» is out of 2 standard deviations limit of the model mean, just like UAH and all «uncorrected» radiosonde data sets.
Wong et al. 2006 find for example an upward trend (decrease of outgoing SW) for the mean tropical zone, but with no information on the regional signature of this trend.
doi: 10.1002 / joc.1651 (Not quoted in SOD) note «Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean.»
Figure 1 Vertical profile of tropical mean temperature trends.
It seems to me, that as the number of models grows this converges to a test as to whether the model mean falls within the CI of the observed series trend (which is pretty wide for the tropical troposphere).
Since the tropical oceans have flattened out and solar does have its largest impact on the tropical oceans, I would expect about the same possibly some increase in Arctic sea ice over the next decade Not a consistent increase by any means, but I doubt it will make it to the 2 mkm ^ 2 and will trend towards a 6 million km ^ 2 average which is hardly «ice free».
The CMIP3 models show a 1979 — 2010 tropical SST trend of 0.19 °C per decade in the multi-model mean, much larger than the various observational trend estimates ranging from 0.10 °C to 0.14 °C per decade (including the 95 % confidence interval, (Fu et al., 2011)-RRB-.
The results here reveal a larger picture — that the western tropical Indian Ocean has been warming for more than a century, at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans, and turns out to be the largest contributor to the overall trend in the global mean sea surface temperature (SST)»
We found that relative to the global - mean trends of the respective layers, both hemispheres have experienced enhanced tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in the 15 to 45 ° latitude belt, which is a pattern indicative of a widening of the tropical circulation and a poleward shift of the tropospheric jet streams and their associated subtropical dry zones.
While global mean temperature and tropical Atlantic SSTs show pronounced and statistically significant warming trends (green curves), the U.S. landfalling hurricane record (orange curve) shows no significant increase or decrease.