By Parker and his colleagues» data and model analysis, this so - called Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation seems to be driven by interactions between
the tropical ocean and atmosphere much like those that drive El Niño; the IPO could be the multidecadal expression of the El Niño cycle, they say.
The strong coupling and interactions between
the Tropical Ocean and atmosphere play a major role in the development of global climatic system.
Plotted are the absolute temperatures for
the tropical oceans and the atmosphere above the tropical oceans, as of April 2016 (purple columns).
Not exact matches
The model was developed recently by the US government's National Oceanographic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to make use of new sea
and wind data collected from instruments moored across the Pacific as part of the international
Tropical Ocean / Global
Atmosphere (TOGA) research programme.
Although the distribution of these emissions is still uncertain, measurements have indicated that the
tropical oceans could be major sources, lofting them into the
atmosphere where they can ultimately contribute to reactions that control tropospheric
and stratospheric ozone.
The next step was see how those factors were influenced by ENSO; while El Niños
and La Niñas are defined by how much warmer or colder than normal
tropical Pacific
ocean waters are, they trigger a cascade of reactions in the
atmosphere that can alter weather patterns around the globe.
But the local warming is just part of an intricate set of changes in the
ocean and atmosphere across the
tropical Pacific, which covers a third of the Earth's circumference.
«The
tropical Pacific
ocean -
atmosphere system has been called a sleeping dragon because of how it can influence climate elsewhere,» said lead author Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the departments of Earth, planetary
and space sciences,
and atmospheric
and oceanic sciences.
This work has been supported by the NOPP project «Advanced coupled
atmosphere - wave -
ocean modeling for improving
tropical cyclone prediction models» (PIs: Isaac Ginis, URI
and Shuyi Chen, UM)
and by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) Consortium for Advanced Research on the Transport of Hydrocarbons in the Environment — CARTHE (PI: Tamay Özgökmen, UM).
A detailed, long - term
ocean temperature record derived from corals on Christmas Island in Kiribati
and other islands in the
tropical Pacific shows that the extreme warmth of recent El Niño events reflects not just the natural
ocean -
atmosphere cycle but a new factor: global warming caused by human activity.
El Niño — a warming of
tropical Pacific
Ocean waters that changes weather patterns across the globe — causes forests to dry out as rainfall patterns shift,
and the occasional unusually strong «super» El Niños, like the current one, have a bigger effect on CO2 levels in the
atmosphere.
However, radiation changes at the top of the
atmosphere from the 1980s to 1990s, possibly related in part to the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, appear to be associated with reductions in
tropical upper - level cloud cover,
and are linked to changes in the energy budget at the surface
and changes in observed
ocean heat content.
They found increases in sea surface temperature
and upper
ocean heat content made the
ocean more conducive to
tropical cyclone intensification, while enhanced convective instability made the
atmosphere more favorable for the growth of these storms.
Pacific
Ocean temperatures in the key El Niño region likely peaked in November, but it takes about three to five months for that heat to spread beyond the
tropical Pacific
and warm the broader
atmosphere.
Evaporation in the
tropical Atlantic
and Caribbean left
ocean waters there saltier
and put fresh water vapor into the
atmosphere.
The blues of the
ocean, lush greens of the hillside,
and natural textures of stone create a relaxing
tropical atmosphere, sure to inspire serenity.
Katathani Phuket Beach Resort holds a special place in many return visitors hearts
and it has constantly proved popular year after year.The resort comprises 479 low - rise guest rooms
and suites - all with private balconies
and terraces facing the
ocean, pools or
tropical gardens.Katathani has a tangible family
atmosphere yet with two separate wings, six swimming pools
and huge grounds as well as an adjacent 850 - metre long beach, things never get too crowded.The resort has six restaurants
and five bars.Upstairs from the main dining room Chom Talay, La Scala offers excellent contemporary Italian fare in a classic setting with live piano music.
In Cairns itself, head down to the lagoon on the waterfront, where you can soak up the
tropical atmosphere amongst the palm trees
and ocean breezes as you watch the boats heading to
and from the reef.
In Relationships between Water Vapor Path
and Precipitation over the
Tropical Oceans, Bretherton et al showed that although the Western Pacific warmer surface waters increased the water in the
atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amounts.
Could this at some point lead to embedded «
tropical cyclone» development within the core of such a system even outside the tropics
and perhaps even removed from the
ocean if a sufficient stream of moisture is flowing in the
atmosphere?
We know that the number of
tropical cyclones is influenced by several factors: the seasonal cycle, the geography,
ocean temperatures
and the wind structure in the
atmosphere.
El Niños like this one have the ability to shift weather patterns on a global basis
and in general send a surge of extra heat into the
atmosphere from the warmer - than - normal
tropical Pacific
Ocean.
So while warmer
oceans and a more fertile
atmosphere might accelerate some kinds of plankton bloom, the seas could become too acidic for
tropical micro-organisms.
Though hurricanes strenthen when moving over warmer water, this is merely due to the fact that the horizontal temperature gradient of the
atmosphere is not as steep, i.e. the temperature differential between the water
and the
atmosphere increases as the storm hits
tropical waters; it is not the
ocean temperature per se that drives the hurricane.
Dan Barrie, program manager at NOAA, called the research «compelling»
and said: «[It] provides a powerful illustration of how the remote eastern
tropical Pacific guides the behaviour of the global
ocean -
atmosphere system, in this case exhibiting a discernible influence on the recent hiatus in global warming.»
Hurricanes draw their energy from the
ocean and warmer waters provide an increase in both temperature
and moisture content of the
tropical atmosphere, which leads to storm intensification.
Limited validations for the results include comparisons of 1) the PERSIANN - derived diurnal cycle of rainfall at Rondonia, Brazil, with that derived from the
Tropical Ocean Global
Atmosphere Coupled Oceanï ¿ 1/2
Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) radar data; 2) the PERSIANN diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Pacific
Ocean with that derived from the data of the optical rain gauges mounted on the TOGA - moored buoys;
and 3) the monthly accumulations of rainfall samples from the orbital TMI
and PR surface rainfall with the accumulations of concurrent PERSIANN estimates.
** We note, however, that the
atmosphere, both over land
and ocean, did not warm during this same post-1978 period — even though atmospheric theory
and every climate model predicts that the
tropical atmosphere should warm nearly twice as rapidly as the surface.
The evolution of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various
ocean -
atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low - level wind
and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial
tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST.
Warm water in the
tropical Pacific
Ocean warmed up the
atmosphere and drove record high temperatures (see 1998 in the satellite temperature data below).
Walker Circulation - Direct thermally driven zonal overturning circulation in the
atmosphere over the
tropical Pacific
Ocean, with rising air in the western
and sinking air in the eastern Pacific.
I have devoted 30 years to conducting research on topics including climate feedback processes in the Arctic, energy exchange between the
ocean and atmosphere, the role of clouds
and aerosols in the climate system,
and the impact of climate change on the characteristics of
tropical cyclones.
So something less than 1 m / s in velocity of atmospheric gas molecules may be occurring in
tropical ocean area [
and a lot of the earth's
atmosphere is over the the
tropical oceans].
And that means it is a poor indicator of the state of ENSO, which is a
tropical Pacific (not North Pacific) coupled
ocean -
atmosphere process.
«Assessing Impacts of PBL
and Surface Layer Schemes in Simulating the Surface —
Atmosphere Interactions
and Precipitation over the
Tropical Ocean Using Observations from AMIE / DYNAMO.»
Identify how anthropogenic forcing
and natural
atmosphere -
ocean variability contribute uniquely to decadal timescale changes in the width of the
tropical belt.
There is an accumulation of energy in the
tropical ocean and to a lesser extent in the
atmosphere at lower latitudes.
Hybrid storms
and climate change: Sandy, continues Emanuel, is a «hybrid storm» — in other words, it has characteristics of
tropical cyclones (hurricanes) that get their energy from the warm
ocean surface, but also of winter cyclones that get their energy from temperature contrasts in the
atmosphere.
The top graph plots the changes in
tropical oceans (a latitude range of -20 to +20); the
tropical atmosphere (a latitude range of -20 to +20);
and the continental U.S.
Solar UV influences on
ocean /
atmosphere coupling — as Lockwood
and others have suggested recently — seems a more likely mechanism in climatologically important
tropical marine zones.
Our study stresses the importance of those internal connections between
tropical Pacific
Ocean SSTs, the ENSO system, and the American Southwest hydroclimatic conditions and supports the contention that: (1) internal variability of the ocean - atmosphere system may not be accurately represented in current global climate models, and (2) enhanced variability as a result of these stochastic events should be further consid
Ocean SSTs, the ENSO system,
and the American Southwest hydroclimatic conditions
and supports the contention that: (1) internal variability of the
ocean - atmosphere system may not be accurately represented in current global climate models, and (2) enhanced variability as a result of these stochastic events should be further consid
ocean -
atmosphere system may not be accurately represented in current global climate models,
and (2) enhanced variability as a result of these stochastic events should be further considered.
In present conditions the polar cave will be colder than
tropical cave,
and this temperature difference [tropic vs polar]
and I would say this difference will be more of variation as compared the effect of removing
atmosphere and oceans.
One approach to this problem is «downscaling,» a procedure in which climate changes in large - scale
atmosphere and ocean conditions predicted by a global model are used as input to a fine - scale regional model that does resolve
tropical cyclones.
CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics
and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation
and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy
and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land -
Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global
Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE)
Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics
and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes
and their Role in Climate TC =
Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation
and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice
and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change
and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction
They depend on the east - west oscillation of the
tropical Pacific thermocline, which adiabatically redistributes heat between the surface (~ 0 — 100 m)
and subsurface
ocean (~ 100 — 500 m)
and thus allows the near - surface
ocean to significantly alter its net heat exchange with the
atmosphere depending on the phase of ENSO [Roemmich
and Gilson, 2011].
An example of internal variability is El Niño, a warming cycle in the Pacific
Ocean which has a big impact on the global climate, resulting from the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in the tropical Pac
Ocean which has a big impact on the global climate, resulting from the interaction between
atmosphere and ocean in the tropical Pac
ocean in the
tropical Pacific.
Mechoso, C. R.,
and and Coauthors,, 1995: The seasonal cycle over the
tropical Pacific in coupled
ocean —
atmosphere general circulation models.
Mechoso, A. W. Robertson
and A. Arakawa, 1996: Peruvian stratus clouds
and the
tropical Pacific circulation - a coupled
ocean -
atmosphere GCM study.
Keep in mind that ENSO is a coupled
ocean -
atmosphere process
and that the trade winds
and the temperature gradient (not anomalies) of the
tropical Pacific interact.
You are probably also aware already that water vapor is as much if not more of a so called greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide is
and there is a lot of evaporating
ocean water on the planet not to mention clouds
and high
tropical humidity because hot air provides added space in the
atmosphere for water vapor gas to become a major component of air.