If surface temperature is what we care about, and the surface forcing in the tropics is very small, and
the tropical ocean surface temperature being more dominated by evaporation than longwave flux, well isn't this more relevant to the problem at hand than the tropospheric radiation balance?
In the September's issue of the journal Science, Peter Webster and Judith Curry documented a 60 percent global jump in major hurricanes with winds of 131 mph or more and a 1 - degree increase in
the tropical ocean surface temperature.
Not exact matches
The finding surprised the University of Arizona - led research team, because the sparse instrumental records for sea
surface temperature for that part of the eastern
tropical Pacific
Ocean did not show warming.
The research, an analysis of sea salt sodium levels in mountain ice cores, finds that warming sea
surface temperatures in the
tropical Pacific
Ocean have intensified the Aleutian Low pressure system that drives storm activity in the North Pacific.
Both the 2005 and 2010 droughts were the result of a «very, very unusual» weather pattern linked to higher sea
surface temperatures in the Atlantic
Ocean, said lead author Simon Lewis, a
tropical forests expert at the University of Leeds.
As of March 2013,
surface waters of the
tropical north Atlantic
Ocean remained warmer than average, while Pacific
Ocean temperatures declined from a peak in late fall.
The new analysis combines sea -
surface temperature records with meteorological station measurements and tests alternative choices for
ocean records, urban warming and
tropical and Arctic oscillations.
El Niño has helped to boost
temperatures this year, as it leads to warmer
ocean waters in the
tropical Pacific, as well as warmer
surface temperatures in many other spots around the globe, including much of the northern half of the U.S..
The underlying pattern in this year's fire forecast is driven by the fact that the western Amazon is more heavily influence by sea
surface temperatures in the
tropical Atlantic, and the eastern Amazon's fire severity risk correlates to sea
surface temperature changes in the
tropical Pacific
Ocean.
To develop the model, they compared historic fire data from NASA's Terra satellite with sea
surface temperature data in the
tropical Pacific and North Atlantic
oceans from buoys and satellite images compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Sea
surface temperatures in the
tropical Atlantic and
tropical Pacific
oceans three to six months before the peak of fire season are strongly correlated with total fire activity.
Previous studies have hypothesized that the North Pacific atmospheric ridge is caused by increased
ocean surface temperatures and movement of heat in the
tropical Pacific.
They found increases in sea
surface temperature and upper
ocean heat content made the
ocean more conducive to
tropical cyclone intensification, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the growth of these storms.
The most recent observations of sea
surface temperatures across the
tropical Pacific
Ocean (top) and how different those
temperatures are from normal (bottom).
During El Nino events the
ocean circulation changes in such a way as to cause a large and temporary positive sea
surface temperature anomaly in the
tropical Pacific.
A well - known issue with LGM proxies is that the most abundant type of proxy data, using the species composition of tiny marine organisms called foraminifera, probably underestimates sea
surface cooling over vast stretches of the
tropical oceans; other methods like alkenone and Mg / Ca ratios give colder
temperatures (but aren't all coherent either).
Cooler than normal sea
surface temperatures (blue shades) were developing in the
tropical Pacific
Ocean during October, signaling the possible development of La Nina.
The graph below shows the strong statistical relationship between annual CO2 rise and the strength of El Niño and La Niña, as quantified by sea
surface temperatures in the
tropical east Pacific
ocean.
Chelliah and Bell (2004) defined a
tropical multi-decadal pattern related to the AMO, the PDO and winter NAO with coherent variations in
tropical convection and
surface temperatures in the West African monsoon region, the central
tropical Pacific, the Amazon Basin and the
tropical Indian
Ocean.
Cooling sea -
surface temperatures over the
tropical Pacific
Ocean — part of a natural warm and cold cycle — may explain why global average
temperatures have stabilized in recent years, even as greenhouse gas emissions have been warming the planet.
La Niña is the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and is associated with cooler than average sea
surface temperatures in the central and eastern
tropical Pacific
Ocean.
There are also plenty of examples where models have correctly suggested that different data sets were inconsistent (satellite vs.
surface in the 1990s,
tropical ice age
ocean temperatures vs. land
temperatures in the 1980s etc.) which were resolved in favor of the models.
And no, there is no huge plunge in
tropical or global
surface air
temperatures when the
ocean circulation spins up because there is a near - compensating decrease in poleward heat transport via the atmospheric circulation.
A good explanation of the details is provided here: Koll & Abbot (2013)-- Why
Tropical Sea
Surface Temperature is Insensitive to
Ocean Heat Transport Changes.
Higher
surface water
temperatures in the
tropical oceans mean more energy radiating into the atmosphere to drive
tropical storm systems, leading to more - destructive storms.
I've been looking at the Hansen material which involves
tropical oceans and have had occasion to review some of the
temperature data sets, including Agudelho and Curry, which is an interesting and useful comparison of satellite and
surface trends — a topic in the air from the US CCSP report.
Subsequently, climate change has been greatly affected as Antarctic Intermediate Water have cooled and exerted a tremendous effect on
tropical sea
surface temperatures for millions of years via «
ocean tunneling».
Location of the stations used for the Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti and Darwin, black dots), the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (eastern equatorial Pacific and Indonesia regions, outlined in blue), and the Niño3.4 region in the east - central
tropical Pacific
Ocean for sea
surface temperature (red dashed line).
The evolution of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various
ocean - atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea
surface temperature (SST) variability on the low - level wind and
surface heat fluxes in the equatorial
tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST.
Key factors expected to influence the regional climate during the OND 2016 season include the evolution of Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the
tropical Oceans.
[26] The
surface waters of the northernmost [27] Arctic
Ocean warmed, seasonally at least, enough to support
tropical lifeforms [28] requiring
surface temperatures of over 22 °C (72 °F).
The tropics are a region of heat gain for the globe:
Tropical ocean sea
surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation, which redistributes heat and moisture from the tropics around the world.
A regional climate model study examines the influence of warm
ocean surface temperatures in the eastern
tropical Atlantic in summer to see what an increase of a few degrees Celsius does to rainfall.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea
surface temperatures in the
tropical Pacific
Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.
By examining the spatial pattern of both types of climate variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic global warming signal was relatively spatially uniform over the
tropical oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO shift in the 1990s consisted of warming in the
tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east
tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing sea
surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
«The authors write that «the notorious
tropical bias problem in climate simulations of global coupled general circulation models manifests itself particularly strongly in the
tropical Atlantic,»... they state that «the climate bias problem is still so severe that one of the most basic features of the equatorial Atlantic
Ocean — the eastward shoaling thermocline — can not be reproduced by most of the IPCC assessment report models,... as they describe it, «show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea -
surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).»
The data indicate the sea
surface temperatures of the
tropical oceans warmed at a not - very - alarming rate of 0.11 deg C / decade, while the models indicate that, if the
surfaces of the
tropical oceans were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases, they should have warmed at almost 2 times that rate, at 0.22 deg C / decade.
It should come as no surprise that the models did overestimate the warming of the sea
surface temperatures of the
tropical oceans over the past 30 years.
And of course, for the
tropical oceans, the model - simulated
ocean surface temperatures are too warm by about 0.9 deg C.
Furthermore, the
surface temperatures of the warmest
tropical oceans seldom exceed 30C and for millions of years the underlying cold sub-
surface waters have provided a powerful thermal buffer to warming.
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) uses the temperature difference between the warm tropical surface water and the cooler, deep water in the ocean to generate en
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) uses the
temperature difference between the warm
tropical surface water and the cooler, deep water in the
ocean to generate en
ocean to generate energy.
The average sea
surface temperature for December to February was 0.84 C above the 20th century average of 15.8 C, with record highs for large swaths of the
tropical Pacific
Ocean (5), various regions of the North and South Atlantic, much of the Indian
Ocean, and the Barents Sea in the Arctic (6).
This created a qualitative transformation in Homo sapiens» impact on earth system trends: levels of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, stratospheric ozone,
surface ocean temperature,
ocean acidification, marine fish capture, coastal nitrogen,
tropical forest depletion, land domestication and terrestrial biosphere degradation.
It is characterized by variations in the
temperature of the
surface of the
tropical eastern Pacific
Ocean — warming or cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively
This basin - wide change in the Atlantic climate (both warming and cooling) induces a basin - scale sea
surface temperature seesaw with the Pacific
Ocean, which in turn modifies the position of the Walker circulation (the language by which the
tropical basins communicate) and the strength of the Pacific trade winds.
It's a mode of natural variation in the
tropical eastern Pacific
ocean which is indicated by sea
surface temperature in that region, as well as patterns of atmospheric pressure,
surface winds over the
ocean, even precipitation over a much larger region.
Hybrid storms and climate change: Sandy, continues Emanuel, is a «hybrid storm» — in other words, it has characteristics of
tropical cyclones (hurricanes) that get their energy from the warm
ocean surface, but also of winter cyclones that get their energy from
temperature contrasts in the atmosphere.
The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the
tropical Pacific
Ocean and associated changes in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].
The major climate system indices that are operationally used at ICPAC include evolution of monsoons, medium and upper level winds, Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian
Ocean dipole (IOD),
tropical cyclones, sea
surface temperature gradients among many others that have been derived from general circulation.
They compared their storm surge index to changes in global
surface temperature, to
temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR; a part of the Atlantic
Ocean where most hurricanes form), and to MDR warming relative to the
tropical mean
temperatures (rMDR).