For hurricane wind speeds, our model shows a sensitivity of about 4 % per degree Celsius increase
in tropical sea surface temperatures, with a larger percentage increase in near - storm rainfall.
The study, published today in the journal Nature, draws on a new record
of tropical sea surface temperature dating back to 1500, captured in fossilised corals and tiny marine organisms.
Subsequently, climate change has been greatly affected as Antarctic Intermediate Water have cooled and exerted a tremendous effect on
tropical sea surface temperatures for millions of years via «ocean tunneling».
[Shaviv and Veizer, 2003] conclude that the effect of a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration
on tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) is likely to be 0.5 ºC (up to 1.9 ºC at 99 % confidence), with global mean temperature changes about 1.5 times as large.
However, extreme events may require the combined effect of increased prevailing winds and tropical storms guided by the strengthened blocking high pressure and nurtured by the unusually warm late -
Eemian tropical sea surface temperatures (Cortijo et al., 1999), which would favor more powerful tropical storms (Emanuel, 1987).
The paper,
assessing tropical sea surface temperatures in relation to flows of energy into and out of the atmosphere, asserted that the climate system was far less sensitive to human actions than the predominant view had it.
The prolonged drought in the Sahel (see Figure 1), which was pronounced from the late 1960s to the late 1980s, continues although it is not quite as intense as it was; it has been linked, through changes in atmospheric circulation, to changes in
tropical sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Basins.
The «adaptive infrared iris» of cirrus clouds opens and closes to permit the release of infrared energy, thus resisting
warmer tropical sea surface temperatures, which occur naturally and are predicted to increase as the result of climate warming.
The clouds respond to ENSO, not the other way round [see: Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, C. O'Dell, and T. Wong, 2010: Relationships
between tropical sea surface temperatures and top - of - atmosphere radiation.
Based upon the new results of Kossin et al. (GRL, 2007), it looks like the IPCC SPM just barely covered itself in its proclamations on observed hurricanes: There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases
of tropical sea surface temperatures.
By studying the chemical composition of fossilized foraminifera, tiny single - celled animals that lived in shallow tropical waters, a team of researchers generated precise estimates of
tropical sea surface temperatures and seawater chemistry during the Eocene Epoch, 56 - 34 million years ago.
They found that
tropical sea surface temperature in the Eocene was about 6 degrees Celsius — about 10 degrees Fahrenheit — warmer than today.
Tropical sea surface temperatures were controlled more by atmospheric connections to glaciation cycles than by ocean circulation.
The new results, published in Nature Geoscience, contradict those previous studies and indicate that
tropical sea surface temperatures were warmer during the early - to - mid Pliocene, an interval spanning about 5 to 3 million years ago.
Several recent studies such as Emanuel (2005 — previously discussed here) and Hoyos et al (2006 — previously discussed here) have emphasized the role of increasing
tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on recent increases in hurricane intensities, both globally and for the Atlantic.
For instance, for the Last Glacial Maximum, model - data mis - matches highlighted by Rind and Peteet (1985) for
the tropical sea surface temperatures, have subsequently been more or less resolved in favour of the models.
Actually, the tropopause temperature is directly related to
the tropical sea surface temperature where the majority of the energy is absorbed and released.
It hardly needs elaboration that the regulation of
tropical sea surface temperature is a central problem in climate, with repercussions ranging from the paleoclimatic domain (e.g. climate of the last glacial maximum vs. the warm climates of the Eocene) through the El Niño fluctuations of the present climate, and beyond to projections of climatic impact of anthropogenic CO2 increase.
Pierrehumbert, RT 1996: Some remarks on mechanisms for the regulation of
tropical sea surface temperature.
Emanuel, K., and A. Sobel, 2013: Response of
tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone - related variables to changes in global and local forcing.
Shin, Z. Liu and Q. Liu (October 2016): Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation to
tropical sea surface temperature anomalies.
There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of
tropical sea surface temperatures.