Not exact matches
In the
tropics at heights more
than 10 miles above the
surface, the prevailing winds alternate between strong easterlies and strong westerlies roughly every other year.
Nathaniel Johnson and Shang - Ping Xie
at the University of Hawaii studied satellite and rain - gauge data from the last 30 years and found that sea
surface temperatures in the
tropics now need to be about 0.3 °C higher
than they did in 1980 before the air above rises and produces rain (Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038 / ngeo1008).
Vigorous convective mixing in the deep
tropics also dilutes changes in near -
surface CO2 much more
than at higher latitudes, so low - altitude sampling contains relatively less information about carbon sources and sinks.
[Response: Depends again — the upper troposphere is predicted to warm more
than the
surface —
at least in the
tropics.
Actually, though, most of the OLR originates from below the tropopause (can get up around 18 km in the
tropics, generally lower)-- with a majority of solar radiation absorbed
at the
surface, a crude approximation can be made that the area emitting to space is less
than 2 * (20/6371) * 100 % ~ = 0.628 % more
than the area heated by the sun, so the OLR per unit area should be well within about 0.6 % of the value calculated without the Earth's curvature (I'm guessing it would actually be closer to if not less
than 0.3 % different).
However, over land, where there is not very much moist convection, which is not dominated by the
tropics and where one expects
surface trends to be greater
than for the oceans, there was no amplification
at all!
Even if clouds were decreasing there would be the clear sky super greenhouse effect where the rate
at which downwelling thermal radiation grows relative to increasing temperatures is actually higher in the
tropics than the rate
at which
surface thermal radiation emissions increase.
Knutson and Tuleya (2004) show that climate models run with increasing CO2 project that in the
tropics the atmosphere should become more stable as there is more warming aloft
than at the
surface.
The reason that the upper part of the troposphere is expected in the global average to warm more
than the
surface is that in the
tropics is that one expects the lapse rate to closely follow the moist adiabatic lapse rate, which indeed implies more warming
at altitude
than at the
surface.
If
surface temperature is what we care about, and the
surface forcing in the
tropics is very small, and the tropical ocean
surface temperature being more dominated by evaporation
than longwave flux, well isn't this more relevant to the problem
at hand
than the tropospheric radiation balance?