Technical Comment on «Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing toRecent
Tropopause Height Changes».
This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall
tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating.»
A model predicted fingerprint of
tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational («reanalysis») data sets.
They then searched for, and positively identified, these model - predicted «fingerprints» in observations of
tropopause height change.»
Not exact matches
For a real gas it's a lot harder to do the reasoning analytically, especially since you have to keep in mind the effects of
changing the
tropopause height.
Showing how a
change in CO2 amount causes different LW flux
changes at different
heights would show how stratospheric cooling occurs, and the spectra (overlayed for 0.5 x, 1 x, 2 x, 4 x, 8 x preindustrial CO2) would also show the origin of the logarithic proportionality for
tropopause - level forcing once the center of the band is saturated.
In their research, team members used advanced computer models of the climate system to estimate
changes in the
tropopause height that likely result from anthropogenic effects.
Although this is an over simplified model, I believe it is closer to the truth than the current idea that a
change in the
height of layer of atmosphere near the
tropopause, around 100 mb, can affect the temperature of the planet at the 1000 mb level.
The only reasonable conclusion to be drawn from the above is that CO2, volcanic outbreaks and El Nino events have little or no effect on the background temperature trends in stratosphere and troposphere because of the ability of the Earth system to
change the
height of the
tropopause and the size and location of the permanent climate zones to
change the speed of energy flow through the Earth system and thereby negate any such effects.
Linear additivity was found to hold in the PCM model for
changes in
tropopause height and synthetic satellite - borne Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) temperatures (Christy et al., 2000; Mears et al., 2003; Santer et al., 2003b).
«The sun causes latitudinal climate zone shifting with
changes in the degree of jetstream zonality / meridionality by altering the ozone creation / destruction balance differentially at different
heights above the
tropopause.
So observation of
change in the
height of the
tropopause turn out to be a lousy place to look for confirm that models to predict
changes expected from GHGs.
The increased radiation is stronger, and the resultant energy imbalances through the stratosphere tend to
change the temperature gradient and also to cool the stratosphere generally, raising the
height of the top of the
tropopause.
If the
tropopause rises or falls, it causes a
change in the gradient of
tropopause height between equator and poles.
Figure 5:
Changes in temperature and
tropopause height in response to various radiative forcings (Santer 2003)
Changes in its speed are achieved by latitudinal shifts in the air circulation systems and by changes in the height of the trop
Changes in its speed are achieved by latitudinal shifts in the air circulation systems and by
changes in the height of the trop
changes in the
height of the
tropopause.
The latter show that human - induced
changes in ozone and well - mixed greenhouse gases account for ~ 80 % of the simulated rise in
tropopause height over 1979 — 1999.
But to quantify the influences (or «forcings» in climate jargon) even further, they considered three anthropogenic forcings — well - mixed greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric and stratospheric ozone — as well as two natural forcings —
changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols — all of which are likely to influence
tropopause height.»
Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of
tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal
changes.