Sentences with phrase «troposphere tropical warming»

While the upper - troposphere tropical warming induces a poleward shift of the jet in winter, Arctic Amplification and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex result in the opposite effect.

Not exact matches

You may already be preparing a post on this paper, but Allen and Sherwood (2008): «Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds» is now available as an «advance online publication» in Nature Geoscience.

Unless large systematic errors can be identified for all data sets, one must conclude that no warming is occurring in the troposphere at tropical latitudes.

As far as I know, the 2 main sources of satellite data for temperatures in the lower troposphere are UAH and RSS, and they vastly differ in their trends in the tropical troposphere, with RSS's trend being twice as warming as the UAH trend, although they show the same trends in the remaining troposphere, resulting in a Global difference of only 0.035 C / d trend.

However, the warming trends are still lower than the surface temperature trends, and also quite surprisingly, the trends in the tropical troposphere are less warming than the trends in the extratropical troposphere.

But all the models show more warming in the tropical troposphere than both in the tropical surface and in the rest of the troposphere.

The basis of the issue is that models produce an enhanced warming in the tropical troposphere when there is warming at the surface.

They concluded that therefore with the tropical troposphere warming no more quickly than the surface, the warming trend had to be due to something other than the accumulation of greenhouse gases and enhanced greenhouse effect.

In fact, only warming by an enhanced greenhouse effect will warm nights more than day, polar regions (and especially the arctic *) more than tropical regions, and cool the stratosphere while warming the troposphere — all of which are features of the current warming.

-- «But global warming very definitely DOES affect the temperature of the tropical free troposphere, so it is not possible to conclude, as alas many have, that increasing SST per se means increasing tropical cyclone intensity (though it usually does signify more TC - related rain).»

Of course, their main claim to support is model output that show a hot spot in upper tropical troposphere warming about 3x surface, elevated tropopause and cooling stratosphere.

Most climate model simulations show a larger warming in the tropical troposphere than is found in observational data sets (e.g., McKitrick et al., 2010; Santer et al., 2013).

That point has likely been exceeded as evidenced by the lack of predicted warming in the tropical troposphere.

Maximum warming is predicted to occur in the middle and upper tropical troposphere.

Natural variability makes it difficult to invalidate climate models that make predictions disagree with observations, such as amplification of warming in the upper tropical troposphere.

It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs as a boundary condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper tropospheric warming relative to the lower - middle troposphere as compared with satellite - borne microwave sounding unit measurements.

Increased penetrating convection to the upper troposphere and the intensified residual circulation in the tropical pper tropospher / lower stratosphere appear to be the most robust of these results, with a magnitude that depends upon the degree of tropical warming.

Our analysis indicates that the near - zero trend from Spencer and Christy's MSU channel - 2 angular scanning retrieval for the tropical low - middle troposphere (T2LT) is inconsistent with tropical tropospheric warming derived from their MSU T2 and T4 data.»

«When we look at actual climate data, however, we do not see accelerated warming in the tropical troposphere.

Modelers want to hand wave over the big picture, and any time one points to the lack of tropical troposphere warming or any other particular failure / discrepancy, it is like stepping in a fire ant nest, you get swarmed and stung.

It is a fact that there has been no increase in warming in the last 18 years, almost no tropical warming over the entire period which is not discussed as it is paradox, and there was been almost no tropical troposphere warming at 8 km which is the signature of greenhouse gas warming.

The water vapor feedback has absolutely been confirmed, and we have also found evidence of the tropical troposphere warming signal that we expect.

I said it didn't matter how much was in the red corner, but of course there is some important evidence in the red corner which strikes at the heart of AGW, the place where the warming occurs: the tropical troposphere temperature.

«While strong observational evidence indicates that tropical deep ‐ layer troposphere warms faster than surface,»

As the air rises, it expands and cools, and water vapour condenses, releasing even more heat,» much like how a hurricane frees energy by drawing warm humid air from its base (usually tropical sea water) and then releasing cold, wet air 7 miles (12 kilometers) up in the troposphere.

While strong observational evidence indicates that tropical deep ‐ layer troposphere warms faster than surface, this study suggests that the AR4 GCMs may exaggerate the increase in static stability between tropical middle and upper troposphere in the last three decades.

The ISPM overview claims: «There is no significant warming in the tropical troposphere (the lowest portion of the Earth's atmosphere), which accounts for half the world's atmosphere, despite model predictions that warming should be amplified there.»

[AR4 Fig. 3.18] Moreover, as acknowledged in the ISPM, models predict amplified warming in the tropical upper troposphere, not the tropical troposphere as a whole.

Moreover, models predict that amplified warming in the upper tropical troposphere would accompany long - term warming, no matter whether the forcing is anthropogenic (greenhouse gases) or natural (solar).

Q. Fu, S. Manabe & C.M. Johanson have recently published (August 2011) a paper titled «On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations» (GRL, VOL.

[20] One of the striking features in GCM ‐ predicted climate change due to the increase of greenhouse gases is the much enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere.

«Section 9.4.1.3.2, p. 9 - 26, lines 31 - 33: «In Summary, there is a high confidence (robust evidence although only medium agreement) that most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 197902011.

Despite differences in volcanic aerosol parameters employed, models computing the aerosol radiative effects interactively yield tropical and global mean lower - stratospheric warmings that are fairly consistent with each other and with observations (Ramachandran et al., 2000; Hansen et al., 2002; Yang and Schlesinger, 2002; Stenchikov et al., 2004; Ramaswamy et al., 2006b); however, there is a considerable range in the responses in the polar stratosphere and troposphere.

In the troposphere, the demarcation between polar air and warmer tropical atmosphere is usually defined by the polar front.

For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 the observational datasets find in the tropical lower troposphere (LT) a warming trend of 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.

For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 (sometimes updated through 2010 or 2011), the various observational datasets find, in the tropical lower troposphere (LT, see Chapter 2 for definition), an average warming trend ranging from 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.

9.4.1.3.2 Upper tropospheric temperature trends Most climate model simulations show a larger warming in the tropical troposphere than is found in observational datasets (e.g., (McKitrick et al., 2010)(Santer et al., 2012)-RRB-.

In summary, there is high confidence (robust evidence although only medium agreement) that most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 1979 — 2011.

The cold upper troposphere outflow temperature is as important to a tropical cyclone heat engine as the warm surface input temperature.

Computer models that were wrong about the warming of the tropical troposphere.

As I have said a million times on this website and will probably have to say a million times more, the amplification of temperature trends or fluctuations as you go up in the tropical troposphere is NOT a prediction specific to AGW as the mechanism causing the warming.

In summary, most, though not all, CMIP3 and CMIP5 models overestimate the observed warming trend in the tropical troposphere during the satellite period 1979 — 2012.

The discrepancies were found because the models over-predict warming in the tropical troposphere, and robust trend estimators indicate that the difference is statistically highly significant, so that the models on average predict a trend that is significantly higher than any individual observational series or all observational series averaged together.

The Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is cooling, the stratosphere is drying, the TLT (temperature lower troposphere) trend seems warmer measured from the ground than the basically flat trend of the first couple of kilometers measured from space.

Wang et al. (2012b) force the dynamical core of an atmospheric general circulation model with warming in the tropical troposphere that mimics the effects of climate change there.

The warming in the tropical troposphere was supposed to be about 1.2 times the surface warming after adjusting for the increased latent surface cooling.

Since the less than positive feedback of clouds in the tropics appears to be the reason that the tropical troposphere hot spot signature of WMGHG warming is missing which implies that the water vapor and cloud feedbacks that are supposed to produce 2/3 of the GHG effect warming are not following the game plan, Spencer et al., by averaging ever damn thing they would find that might possibly show the tropical troposphere hot spot, are basically telling Trenberth and Dessler, «told ya so!»

The lack of tropical troposphere warming btw appears to be related to tropical ozone depletion which may be related to stratospheric moisture.

This requires that warming in the tropical upper troposphere be 2 - 3 times greater than at the surface.

In contrast, greenhouse gases warm both the Atlantic and the Indo pacific, and therefore, they warm both the Atlantic SSTs and the tropical troposphere, hopefully, with no change in stability to lowest order.