Not exact matches
Tomas» comments about the 3 - body system being not even «predictable statistically (e.g you can not put a
probability on the event «Mars will be ejected from the solar system in N years»» is
true in the strict sense of the
exact mathematics assuming no external perturbations.
The key point here is that the objective Bayesian and the SRLR methods both provide
exact probability matching whatever the
true calendar date of the sample is (provided it is not near the end of the calibration curve).
It's perfectly possible even to have the
exact same
probability whichever hypothesis is
true, in which case the ratio is one, the log - likelihood is zero, and the observation tells you absolutely nothing about your hypotheses.