At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): SwOptT2: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 5.6 %.
At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): CSwOptT2: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 4.1 %.
At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): LHOptG: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 5.7 %.
At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): LHOptE: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 5.8 %.
At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): LHOptB: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 5.5 %.
At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): HSwOptT2: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 4.8 %.
At
a typical valuation level (P / E10 = 14): LHOptA: Safe Withdrawal Rate (95 % probability of success, one sided): 5.6 %.
Not exact matches
The
typical bear pattern, as described here, involves a sharp sell - off, a «sucker's rally,» and a final, torturous grind down to
levels where
valuations are more reasonable and a general state of depression prevails regarding investments overall.
A wide variety of investment processes can be employed to arrive at an investment decision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategies can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and can range broadly in terms of
levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holding period, concentrations of market capitalizations, and
valuation ranges of
typical portfolios.
In contrast, Fund returns during the advance that began in 2003 have been as intended, given the
level of
valuations at which the advance began, but have been lower than I would expect during
typical bull markets.
As you can see, we've moved into a rare area on the graph where
valuations are far above their
typical levels for the current
level of economic volatility.
However, you can substantially improve performance if you wait for the stock market P / E10
valuation to fall to a historically
typical level of 14, almost one half of today's prices.
Today's
valuations, as measured by P / E10, are twice the historically
typical level of 14 to 15.
You can enter your guesses as to future P / E10
levels, such as 14 to represent
typical valuations, 8 for bargain
valuations and 18 for higher than normal
valuations.
Here are the equations along with
typical results during times of high,
typical and bargain
level valuations.
Latch and Hold dramatically improves the upside of (stock allocation) switching when started in times of
typical and bargain
level valuations.
These are
typical mid-cycle
valuations for the stock but with earnings closer to trough
levels, there is upside to the shares.
A wide variety of investment processes can be employed to arrive at an investment decision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategies can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and can range broadly in terms of
levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holding period, concentrations of market capitalizations and
valuation ranges of
typical portfolios.
IMN's current
valuation could be ascribed to a company with major near - term problems,
typical of those that burn considerable cash and have poor balance sheets characterized by high
levels of debt and / or near - term refinancings.