Sentences with phrase «uncertainties estimated by»

An important aspect will be to promote use of these forecasts and their uncertainty estimates by the applications community.

Not exact matches

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.

The central bank estimated trade uncertainty would lower investment by two per cent by the end of 2019.

The degree of auditor judgment related to areas in the financial statements that involved the application of significant judgment or estimation by management, including estimates with significant measurement uncertainty;

This economic uncertainty includes the probabilities of future events as estimated by the buyers and sellers.

The fact that one calculation shows increased claims indicates the uncertainty in the estimates and suggests Iron Dome's influence may have been small enough to be overshadowed by changes in other factors.

The estimates in table 1 are a sobering reflection of the perinatal hazards that these women face, 3 4 even if the exact rates have been exaggerated by some underas - certainment of the relevant official denominator figure for all births outside hospital and are subject to uncertainty because sampling methods had to be used to aportion the overall figure.

Decision uncertainty was examined by estimating net benefit statistics and constructing cost effectiveness acceptability curves across cost effectiveness threshold values of between # 0 and # 100000 for the health outcomes of interest.

The usual health warnings were issued in the form of statistical uncertainty estimates, but these invitations to prudence were given less attention than they deserved by most consumers of the numbers.

As an industry that is estimated to be worth a staggering $ 15 trillion by 2025, inconsistency has the potential to create a huge degree of uncertainty, misunderstanding and risk, further demonstrating the importance of synchronising standards.

It is called «ECUS — Estimating climate variability by quantifying proxy uncertainty and synthesizing information across archives.»

With only a few observations to feed into their calculations, the early estimates by scientists of an asteroid's future orbit have huge uncertainties.

Point estimates of population parameters (e.g., mean, correlation coefficient, slope) or comparative measures (e.g., mean difference, odds ratio, hazard ratio) should be accompanied by a measure of uncertainty such as a standard error or a confidence interval.

Also, the model - based approach includes measures of uncertainty about our population estimates, which are not usually provided by more common approaches and are crucial for understanding the level of confidence we have about our estimates.»

The range of uncertainty is huge, with estimates of Europa's energy supply varying by orders of magnitude.

A new paper, co-authored by Woods Hole Research Center Senior Scientist Richard A. Houghton, entitled, «Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty,» was published in the journal Biogeosciences.

The least one ought to be able to expect in a book by a statistician is (a) clear specification of what is being depicted by the numbers that are presented and (b) appropriate indication of the magnitudes of uncertainties (as reflected, for example, in the range of respectable estimates of a quantity of interest).

In the study published in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research, the role of year - to - year variation in weather conditions was examined by increasing the estimated uncertainty of litter input originating from tree needles, foliage and fine roots by a 5 % random error.

When the interannual variation caused by weather is excluded, uncertainty estimates for soil carbon stock change become unrealistically small.

These confidence limits assume that the overall risk for a given individual is provided by our estimates and should not be interpreted as measuring the overall uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates, as shown in Table 5.

Such estimates of ancient divergence times could contain substantial error caused by uncertainty of the molecular clock assumptions, confounding effects of horizontal gene transfer, and errors in estimating sequence homology (i.e., similarlity).

Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or Medieval Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings over the past 1000 years, and the substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.

Quoting the IPCC 1.4 to 5.8 Â °C estimate (for doubling CO2) outside current agreements among models that the uncertainty is most likely in the 2.5 to 4Â °C range or failing to point out that discrepancies (used by skeptics) between surface and troposphere warming have been resolved, is misleading in my view.

Using TGAS parallaxes in isochrone fitting we are able to reduce distance and age estimate uncertainties for TGAS stars for distances up to 1 kpc by more than one third, compared to results based only on spectrophotometric data.

However, as pointed out by the authors, this estimate does not account for forcing uncertainties.

We demonstrate that we will be able to improve our distance estimates for about one third of stars in spectroscopic surveys and to decrease log (age) uncertainties by about a factor of two for over 80 % of stars as compared to the uncertainties obtained without parallax priors using Gaia end - of - mission parallaxes consistently with spectrophotometry in isochrone fitting.

Note that while results from fingerprint detection approaches will be affected by uncertainty in separation between greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, the resulting uncertainty in estimates of the near - surface temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing is relatively small (Sections 9.2.3 and 9.4.1.4).

Furthermore, as pointed out by Frame et al. (2005), the effect of noise on the estimate of the climatic background level can lead to a substantial underestimate of uncertainties if not taken into account.

«We use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5 D climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom - up estimates of historic radiative forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s... Between 1850 and 2010, the climate system accumulated a total net forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5 - 95 % uncertainty range of 95 - 197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36 - 0.76) Wm - 2.»

Given the number of uncertainties involved in trying to estimate a sustainable level of retirement spending — how the markets will perform, how long you'll live, what your actual expenses will be (although on that score, doing a retirement budget can help)-- you might also consider turning a portion of your nest egg into income assured to last no matter how long you live and regardless of how the markets fare by investing in an immediate annuity or longevity annuity.

As the prize consignment of the week — in a period of uncertainty, when trophies have been hard to come by — the Ames cache had been estimated to sell for at least $ 93 million.

The model results (which are based on driving various climate models with estimated solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic radiative forcing changes over this timeframe) are, by in large, remarkably consistent with the reconstructions, taking into account the statistical uncertainties.

Although some earlier work along similar lines had been done by other paleoclimate researchers (Ed Cook, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Ray Bradley, Malcolm Hughes, and Henry Diaz being just a few examples), before Mike, no one had seriously attempted to use all the available paleoclimate data together, to try to reconstruct the global patterns of climate back in time before the start of direct instrumental observations of climate, or to estimate the underlying statistical uncertainties in reconstructing past temperature changes.

It should be stressed that should this be a sustained feature (and not affected by the + / - 6 Sv uncertainty estimated in the paper), this would be extremely significant.

This is also a good recent presentation of the various estimates of climate sensitivity and of the amount of uncertainty associated with them — found by doing a Google image search on the terms:

In my every day life it is useful even within uncertainties of 10 — 20 % (caused by uncertainty in predicted velocity) when estimating time of arrival.

«The global mean latent heat flux is required to exceed 80 W m — 2 to close the surface energy balance in Figure 2.11, and comes close to the 85 W m — 2 considered as upper limit by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b) in view of current uncertainties in precipitation retrieval in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitation estimates).

Since Milankovitch factors are excluded as small, BUT they do exist and by ignoring them you are introducing an increasing underestimation of the incoming solar radiation (& its impact on solar irradiance and on water vapor etc feedbacks), then why is there not an uncertainty estimate for this or better yet an actual estimate of what the under estimation is?

Such determinations require careful, quantitative analyses involving forcings estimates and reconstructions, and are fraught with limitations owing to uncertainties in both the forcing estimates and reconstructions — an excellent discussion is provided in this manuscript by Waple et al and references therein.

This is remarkable in a number of ways — first, these are the highest estimates of sea level rise by 2100 that has been published in the literature to date, and secondly, while they don't take into account the full uncertainty in other aspects of sea level rise considered by IPCC, their numbers are significantly higher in any case.

Indeed, the bizarre resulting claim by MM of anomalous 15th century warmth (which falls within the heart of the «Little Ice Age») is at odds with not only the MBH98 reconstruction, but, in fact the roughly dozen other estimates now published that agree with MBH98 within estimated uncertainties.

The follow - up to MBH98 by Mann et al (1999) was entitled «Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations» (italics added for emphasis), and indeed emphasized the substantial remaining uncertainties in proxy - based estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperature change in paUncertainties, and Limitations» (italics added for emphasis), and indeed emphasized the substantial remaining uncertainties in proxy - based estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperature change in pauncertainties in proxy - based estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperature change in past centuries.

``... estimates of future rises remain hazy, mostly because there are many uncertainties, from the lack of data on what ice sheets did in the past to predict how they will react to warming, insufficient long - term satellite data to unpick the effects of natural climate change from that caused by man and a spottiness in the degree to which places such as Antarctica have warmed....

Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or Medieval Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings over the past 1000 years, and the substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.

The range of all Outlook values is similar to those expressed by individual uncertainty estimates.

The IEA has estimated that cumulative energy - sector investment of $ 17 trillion (in 2004 dollars) will be required by 2030 in order to finance its Reference Scenario, and has said that â $ œFinancing the required investments in non-OECD countries is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty surrounding our energy - supply projectionsâ $?

Regarding the Hockey Stick of IPCC 2001 evidence now indicates, in my view, that an IPCC Lead Author working with a small cohort of scientists, misrepresented the temperature record of the past 1000 years by (a) promoting his own result as the best estimate, (b) neglecting studies that contradicted his, and (c) amputating another's result so as to eliminate conflicting data and limit any serious attempt to expose the real uncertainties of these data.

«A further issue raised by our analysis is the quality of the uncertainty estimates associated with the proxy data.

Table 3 contains an overview of the uncertainty of the estimates in the second national communications reported by Parties.

The final uncertainty is estimated by «determined by adding in quadrature» some other numbers.