Sentences with phrase «uncertainties in forcings»

Only a few estimates account for uncertainty in forcings other than from aerosols (e.g., Gregory et al., 2002a; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003); some other studies perform some sensitivity testing to assess the effect of forcing uncertainty not accounted for, for example, in natural forcing (e.g., Forest et al., 2006; see Table 9.1 for an overview).

Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role.

It would clearly be inappropriate to regress surface temperature changes on forcing changes for the reasons you give, since relative uncertainty in forcing changes is much larger than that in temperature changes.

We present an agenda for addressing uncertainties in forcings and climate effects from conventional and nonconventional agents.

Runs that doubled the solar forcing, to account for the uncertainty in that forcing would have been a start.

gavin > The simple question of whether the medieval period was warm or cold is not particularly interesting — given the uncertainty in the forcings (solar and volcanic) and climate sensitivity, any conceivable temperature anomaly (which remember is being measured in tenths of a degree) is unlikely to constrain anything.

The simple question of whether the medieval period was warm or cold is not particularly interesting — given the uncertainty in the forcings (solar and volcanic) and climate sensitivity, any conceivable temperature anomaly (which remember is being measured in tenths of a degree) is unlikely to constrain anything.

The point is that given the uncertainties in the forcings, the sensitivity and the response, it is difficult to rule out much when thinking about the real world.

Wigley et al. (1997) pointed out that uncertainties in forcing and response made it impossible to use observed global temperature changes to constrain ECS more tightly than the range explored by climate models at the time (1.5 °C to 4.5 °C), and particularly the upper end of the range, a conclusion confirmed by subsequent studies.

Note that uncertainty in forcings is partly obviated via the focus on Earth's energy imbalance in our analysis.

However, the uncertainties in the forcings for that period are larger than in recent decades (in particular for the solar and aerosol - related emissions) and so the forced trend (0.07 ºC / decade) could have been different in reality.

In fact it is the opposite — Hansen is actually claiming that the uncertainty in models (for instance, in the climate sensitivity) is now less than the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projections).

And given that uncertainty, and the uncertainty in the forcings, the sensitivity can not be usefully constrained from Medieval data.]

The fact that numerous attempts to reconstruct TSI (or aerosol forcings) lead to different results forces us (pun intended) to conclude that the uncertainty in those forcings is too large to come to reliable conclusions beyond what has been stated in the literature.

Note that uncertainty in forcings is partly obviated via the focus on Earth's energy imbalance in our analysis.

States that, instead, one has to consider additional factors such as internal variability, the tuning of the model, observational uncertainty, the temporal change in dominant processes or the uncertainty in the forcing