Sentences with phrase «uncertainties in the simple model»

In addition, the authors do not account for uncertainties in the simple model whose sensitivity is fitted.

Not exact matches

Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple model.

That would seem to be a good test of whether the method produces a good estimate of TCR independent of the uncertainty in E. I tried such a thing, and my main objection to the Shindell (2014) paper is that when I test the «simple» Otto method vs. the Shindell method on the same model set in the paper, the Otto et al (2013) method still seems to perform better.

And, in spite of all its complexity and uncertainties, we should not lose track of the simple fact that theory, actual observations of the planet, and complex models - however imperfect each is in isolation - all point to ongoing, potentially dangerous human alteration of climate.

Because Schwartz's model is simpler it is easier to account for and quantify the uncertainty in it (in fact much of the uncertainty in complex GCMs is hidden eg see Stainford et al referenced in the post), so if you take the view that you are interested not just in the mean but the variation in the estimate Schwartz's model, despite being simpler, gives you better information.

If you consider the existing uncertainties in dating and simple linear age model, we could get some strong leads.

But Julian, a simple model - obs matchup in the temperature field is not how formal attribution is done, and I agree that the aerosol forcing uncertainty makes such simple comparisons problematic (see Knutti's work on this for example).