Sentences with phrase «uncertainties of the temperature record»

If the record is wrong, a new reconstruction of old proxy data will carry the known uncertainties of the temperature record.

Not exact matches

The IPCC [the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] took a shortcut on the actual scientific uncertainty analysis on a lot of the issues, particularly the temperature records.

The NRC asked the committee to summarize current scientific information on the temperature record for the past two millennia, describe the main areas of uncertainty and how significant they are, describe the principal methodologies used and any problems with these approaches, and explain how central is the debate over the paleoclimate temperature record to the state of scientific knowledge on global climate change.

These divergences suggest that there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding satellite temperature records that needs to be resolved, as the range of reasonable assumptions for corrections can lead to large differences in results.

If Mann had in fact found a clear signal then a lot of uncertainty about the temperature record would have been reduced.

Mike Wallace's talk was about the «National Research Council Report on the «Hockey Stick Controversy»... The charge to the committee, was «to summarize current information on the temperature records for the past millennium, describe the main areas of uncertainty and how significant they are, describe the principal methodologies used and any problems with these approaches, and explain how central is the debate over the paleoclimate record within the overall state of knowledge on global climate change.»

I am afraid that the climate science community still has a very poor understanding of «errors» and» uncertainties» WRT to historical temperature data records.

Other factors also contribute to smoothing the proxy temperature signals contained in many of the records we used, such as organisms burrowing through deep - sea mud, and chronological uncertainties in the proxy records that tend to smooth the signals when compositing them into a globally averaged reconstruction.

S1 which removed alternatively (a) all tree - ring data or (b) 7 additional long - term proxy records associated with greater uncertainties or potential documented biases (showing the temperature reconstruction was robust to removal of either of these datasets), we here removed both data sets simultaneously from the predictor network (Fig.

Regarding the Hockey Stick of IPCC 2001 evidence now indicates, in my view, that an IPCC Lead Author working with a small cohort of scientists, misrepresented the temperature record of the past 1000 years by (a) promoting his own result as the best estimate, (b) neglecting studies that contradicted his, and (c) amputating another's result so as to eliminate conflicting data and limit any serious attempt to expose the real uncertainties of these data.

Previous large natural oscillations are important to examine: however, 1) our data isn't as good with regards to external forcings or to historical temperatures, making attribution more difficult, 2) to the extent that we have solar and volcanic data, and paleoclimate temperature records, they are indeed fairly consistent with each other within their respective uncertainties, and 3) most mechanisms of internal variability would have different fingerprints: eg, shifting of warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere (but we see warming in both), or simultaneous warming of the troposphere and stratosphere, or shifts in global temperature associated with major ocean current shifts which for the most part haven't been seen.

To elaborate slightly on my above point, the cause / effect relationship between CO2 and temperature derived from data spanning more than 400 million years, and operating within uncertainty margins that can be quantified with reasonable probability requires the existence of a prominent CO2 signal in the record of the past half century.

The IPCC has given inadequate attention to solar variability and its uncertainties and it has WAY discounted the impact of the major multi-decadal and longer ocean oscillations on interpreting the 20th century temperature record.

The range of uncertainty for 2005 temperatures overlaps with that of 1998, which means the two years are vying closely for the position of «warmest year on record.»

If Mann had in fact found a clear signal then a lot of uncertainty about the temperature record would have been reduced.

Our results include our best estimate for the global temperature change and our estimates of the uncertainties in the record.

Increased understanding of uncertainties in radiosonde and satellite records makes assessment of causes of observed trends in the upper troposphere less confident than an assessment of overall atmospheric temperature changes.

independence of both the measurement errors and the uncertainties in satellite, radiosonde, and surface - based temperature records, which lends greater confidence to an assessment based on all three measurement categories than to an assessment based on any one of them in isolation.

Headlines like «2014: The Most Dishonest Year on Record» have been posted on climate skeptic blogs, such as Watts Up With That, and a commentator for the popular British newspaper The Daily Mail all but accused NASA of lying to the press and the public about global temperatures, despite the open discussion of uncertainties both in NASA's press materials and during a press conference with audio that is publicly accessible.

As a requirement, the statistical uncertainty associated with the effect of the adjustments on the regional temperature record needs to be quantified and documented.

Pat Frank says: June 26, 2014 at 5:09 pm «This will mean the «infilling» of any specific temperature record will be subject to a large uncertainty.

This will mean the «infilling» of any specific temperature record will be subject to a large uncertainty.

Both because we felt that NOAA got a lot of unfair criticism, and also because their new results did produce some real scientific uncertainties; not only is their new temperature record warmer than their old one, it's also a bit warmer than the UK's Hadley Center record, which is probably the most commonly used ocean temperature record,» Hausfather says.

As I see it from my analyses the questions remaining to be asked about the temperature instrumental record involve how well we capture and understand the uncertainty involved in adjusting temperatures, and further knowing the limitations of those methods currently being used.

Following Steven McIntyre on tree rings, Anthony Watts or Paul Homewood on temperature records, Judith Curry on uncertainty, Willis Eschenbach on clouds or ice cores, or Andrew Montford on media coverage has been one of the delights of recent years for those interested in science.

True in the sense that even though the average temperature reconstruction «makes sense» there is zero formal error estimation of either the interpolation error of the global surface temperature reconstruction, or the quadrature thereof and hence the uncertainty in the temperature record is completely unknown (save maybe sound extreme bounds that one could probably work out on a napkin).

Second, as pointed out above, the problems with the satellite data have been adjusted and now «show warming rates that are similar to those of the surface temperature record and are consistent within their respective uncertainties»

It's especially unclear given the huge uncertainties looming over climate models and the accuracy of the global temperature record.

Hence, the data sparseness during the early period of record is the major source of underlying uncertainty in the surface temperature estimates.

the committee will summarize current scientific information on the temperature record for the past 1,000 - 2,000 years, describe the main areas of uncertainty and how significant they are, describe the principal methodologies used and any problems with these approaches, and explain how central the debate over the paleoclimate temperature record is to the state of scientific knowledge on global climate change.

If you superimpose any of the temperature records on top of Mann's hockey stick graph, including the CET, then you can see that, within the stated uncertainty limits, there is no disagreement at all.

I would nevertheless be interested in Mike's opinion: would a 1C global cooling (with a huge uncertainty) between the extremes of the MWP and the LIA be more or less coherent with the temperature record?

New analyses of balloon - borne and satellite measurements of lower - and mid-tropospheric temperature show warming rates that are similar to those of the surface temperature record and are consistent within their respective uncertainties, largely reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR.

Attributing the 1900 - 1940 changes in this SST / Global anomaly difference, you need to be wary of the increasing uncertainty in the SST & Global temperature anomalies for earlier parts of the temperature record.

By fixating on a minor detail, you have glossed right over all the real difficulties and challenges in working out the probable error range for early temperature records, which include uncertainty about the properties of the thermometers used and gaps in the records.