Note that
the uncertainty ranges from inverse and forward calculations are different due to the use of different information, and that they are affected by different uncertainties.
In comparison, North American stock betas have
an uncertainty ranging from about +0.4 to -1.2.
As discussed above, these are only broad and highly uncertain estimates, and StarCapital Research estimated an overall
uncertainty range from 11 % to -1.5 % real returns using the CAPE ratio from December 2015.
Both uncertainty ranges from hadcrut4 and RSS cover warming since the end of 1997:
The GCP reports that China's emissions are projected to grow by 3.5 % in 2017, with wide
uncertainty ranging from 0.7 % to 5.4 %.
AR5 SOD Figure 1.5 with annotations showing HadCRUT4 (yellow) and
uncertainty ranges from AR4 Figure 10.26 in 5 - year increments (red + signs).
#e1l = T - D -LRB-:, 4); % lower #e2u =D -LRB-:, 5)- T; % upper 95 %
uncertainty ranges from the coverage uncertainties.
#e4l = T - D -LRB-:, 10); % lower #e5u =D -LRB-:, 11)- T; % upper 95 %
uncertainty ranges from the combined effects of all the uncertainties.
#e3l = T - D -LRB-:, 8); % lower #e4u =D -LRB-:, 9)- T; % upper 95 %
uncertainty ranges from the combined station and grid - box sampling, and coverage uncertainties.
#e2l = T - D -LRB-:, 6); % lower #e3u =D -LRB-:, 7)- T; % upper 95 %
uncertainty ranges from the bias uncertainties.
In fact, in the annual Global Carbon Budget 2016 published in November 2016, we still estimated that Chinese emissions would be down 0.5 % for the year, based on monthly data through September, albeit with a wide
uncertainty range from 3.8 % down to 1.3 % up.
The uncertainties range from inadequate scientific understanding of the problems, data gaps and general lack of data to inherent uncertainties of future events in general.
Not exact matches
This resulted in a
range of policies —
from the Clean Power Plan to methane regulations for oil and gas drilling — that now face
uncertainty or complete rescindment.
More particularly, the products emerging
from our professional work reveal a wide
range of diffuse
uncertainty about the detailed response structure of the economy....
Especially is this so, as long as there remains a certain hangover
from the not so distant past when orthodoxy was virtuous, doubt was appalling, and heresy was morally wicked, if, then, without being repelled by the wide
range of disagreement and
uncertainty among Christian people, we ask questions about their idea of God, we shall expect to receive diverse answers.
This
uncertainty is much smaller than the
range from the traditional UN high and low variants.
Meanwhile, the comptroller's office points to revenue risks
ranging from $ 205.7 million in anticipated funds
from the state's Indian - run casinos as well as high
uncertainty when comes to federal aid.
«These developments, and others, have cast a pall of
uncertainty and fear over the Hoosick Falls community, with wide
ranging impacts
from health and emotional well - being to the local economy,» he wrote in the letter.
By far the most important
uncertainty afterward is whether Moore recovers
from being hit in the face at close
range.
Some of the largest
uncertainties in current climate models stem
from their wide -
ranging estimates of the size and number of dust particles in the atmosphere.
Given clinical
uncertainty over their appropriate indications, it is unclear whether their annual use rates, which
ranged from 0.1 percent in younger children to 1 percent in adolescents, are above or below the rates of the psychiatric disorders they aim to treat.»
The practice of science, which includes the packaging of findings
from science for use in the public - policy arena, is governed by an unwritten code of conduct that includes such elements as mastering the relevant fundamental concepts before venturing into print in the professional or public arena, learning and observing proper practices for presenting
ranges of respectable opinion and
uncertainty, avoiding the selection of data to fit pre-conceived conclusions, reading the references one cites and representing their content accurately and fairly, and acknowledging and correcting the errors that have crept into ones work (some of which are, of course, inevitable) after they are discovered by oneself or by others.
This disorder can
range from uncertainty over words, to total loss of expression through language, but the patient can write.
Even though the data
from PAMELA cover a different energy
range from the ATIC signal, Wefel believes that «there is no contradiction between ATIC and PAMELA, at least to within the
uncertainties on the presently available data», he told New Scientist.
But because many countries have little surveillance data available, the statistical
uncertainty is still huge,
ranging from 71,000 to 447,000 deaths for the year 2010.
-- gavin][Addendum: Arrhenius paper
from 1896 states 4 - 6 ºC warming for CO2 - doubling; the
uncertainty range in the last IPCC report is 1.5 - 4.5 ºC.
The age of the Upper Cave (Zhoukoudian) remains is similarly problematic and has been a major source of
uncertainty since their discovery in the 1930s, with estimates
ranging from ∼ 33 - 10 ka [2], [4].
Therefore, I wouldn't attach much credence, if any, to a modelling study that didn't explore the
range of possibilities arising
from such
uncertainty in parameter values, and particularly in the value of something as crucial as the climate sensitivity parameter, as in this example.
«Our new masses result in a five to eight-fold improvement on the planetary density
uncertainties, with precisions
ranging from 5 % to 12 %.
The treatment of
uncertainty in the ocean's uptake of heat varies,
from assuming a fixed value for a model's ocean diffusivity (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001) to trying to allow for a wide
range of ocean mixing parameters (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or systematically varying the ocean's effective diffusivity (e.g., Forest et al., 2002, 2006; Frame et al., 2005).
The 16 planetary candidates have estimated diameters within
range of being super-Earths (1.26 to 2.0 times Earth's diameter), given error margins
ranging from 25 to 35 percent due to the
uncertainty in the size of their host star and of the «depth» of the observed transits (decrease in stellar luminosity) across the surface of the star.
In the early stages of a relationship, you may feel a mixture of emotions,
ranging from extreme highs like excitement, anticipation and thrill, to extreme lows like insecurity and
uncertainty.
The
range in claimed impact reflects the fact that they sometimes admit to
uncertainty about the exact effect size
from a specific program.
Opinions on this topic
ranged from, «immediately» return the schools to local control to «never» return the schools back to the
uncertainty of a locally elected body.
Maserati has problems of its own,
ranging from delays in launching the much - hyped Levante SUV to
uncertainties about future products.
For example, real estate in North America looks like a good total inflation hedge (beta about +2), but with a huge
range of
uncertainty (
from about +6 to -2) just for that one time and place.
The large degree of
uncertainty associated with the effects of these policies logically led to a wide
range of predictions
from commentators and practitioners, including the downfall of the US dollar, rapidly rising inflation, and the build - up of a significant bubble in the Treasury bond market.
I find there is still some
uncertainty about how they work,
ranging from what to buy to what happens when you die.
For the Biennial, Mutu uses this dynamic, vibrant approach to realize a live multimedia performance that animates ideas she has long explored in her art,
ranging from international political events to the daily
uncertainty faced by women in Kenya.
The works selected create a perception shift in the viewer's imagination, stimulating reactions
ranging from uncertainty, hesitation, and critique to admiration, irony, and meditation...
Depending on what you are looking at, it could have a bottom up estimate of aerosol forcing or aerosol forcings
from a residual calculation — neither of which really have the
range of
uncertainty.
I'll be refining the goals and guidelines for Dot Earth shortly and would be eager to hear
from you on ways to keep this effort useful, while still considering the full
range of reasoned views out there on momentous issues laced with inherent complexity and some unavoidable
uncertainty.
-- gavin][Addendum: Arrhenius paper
from 1896 states 4 - 6 ºC warming for CO2 - doubling; the
uncertainty range in the last IPCC report is 1.5 - 4.5 ºC.
They presented the
range, they described the concept of the ensemble, they emphasised (in response to a very perceptive question
from some star BBC journalist) the role of clouds in the
uncertainty, they mentioned 6 main reasons for
uncertainty.
Pieter Tans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stressed the persistent
uncertainty in the
range of warming expected
from a buildup of greenhouse gases as cutting against the idea of specific thresholds: «Our biggest science problem is that we do not know how strong the climate feedbacks are, or even whether we know all of the ones that are important on decadal and longer time scales,» he said in an e-mail.
This
range reflects both
uncertainties in physical understanding and inaccuracies arising
from the need to reduce the mathematical problem to one that can be handled by even the fastest available electronic computers.
Emanuel noted that the
uncertainty still means the outcome
from a big buildup of greenhouse gases could
range from «the benign to the catastrophic.»
*** «Perhaps concern over «
uncertainty» in complex, adaptive, open systems should be investigated by inductive generalization
from observations of the dynamics of a wide
range of such systems: ecosystems, social systems, computer systems, immune systems, economic systems... It is curious that the following things are never admitted as «facts about the world,» but here goes: the observer would note of all of these systems that they undergo oscillations within apparent parameters and occasionally flip into new regimes; they often demonstrate novel emergence; and that increased forcing, whether of native elements or exotic ones, increases the rates of oscillation and catastrophic shifts, sometimes after a quieter period of sub-threshold build - up.
The data are available and anyone can calculate the different trends, I don't think I have any special method or anything, but for completeness the 1950 - 2006 trend went
from 0.097 deg C / dec to 0.068 deg C / dec (mean of all realisations) a 31 % drop (
uncertainties on OLS trends + / -0.017 deg C / dec; for 100 different realisations of HadSST3 the
range of trends is [0.0458,0.0928] deg C / dec).
Cox et al. provide a statistical
uncertainty range for a single study, ignoring structural
uncertainty and systematic biases resulting
from their choice of model and method.