Uncertainty about future warming is not just the uncertainty about sensitivity, but also about the future greenhouse gas levels (GHG).
Not exact matches
As can be seen your graph, our climate models make a wide range of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold
uncertainty)
about how much «committed
warming» will occur in the
future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding of these processes.
From the standpoint of doing something
about global
warming, the
uncertainties are irrelevant unless we don't care what kind of world we leave for
future generations - of humans and polar bears.
Another Nobel laureate in economics, Thomas Schelling, wrote recently that «In responding to such
uncertainty [
about future warming and sea level rises], we should neither wait until the
uncertainty has been completely resolved before we take action nor act as if it's certain until we have assurance that there's no danger.»
Uncertainty about the extent of
future global
warming is in itself an indicator of serious climate change to come, scientists have claimed.
That means there is still a lot of
uncertainty about the extent of
future warming — estimates of the effect of doubling CO2, including all feedback processes, range from 2 °C to 6 °C.
There is new information that lack of sea ice causes storms to produce larger waves and more coastal erosion.5 An additional contributing factor is that coastal bluffs that were «cemented» by permafrost are beginning to thaw in response to
warmer air and ocean waters, and are therefore more vulnerable to erosion.22 Standard defensive adaptation strategies to protect coastal communities from erosion such as use of rock walls, sandbags, and riprap have been largely unsuccessful.23 There remains considerable
uncertainty, however,
about the spatial patterns of
future coastal erosion.
That's because their disagreements are not just
about interpretations of scientific data, but
about how they assess the risks, amid the
uncertainty over global
warming's
future impact.
There is also scientific
uncertainty about the
future consequences of global
warming.
Uncertainty about the
future climatic effect of carbon dioxide emissions consists of two parts: the
future carbon dioxide concentration given current levels of emissions, and the amount of
warming that can be expected from a given carbon dioxide concentration.