The Journal concluded its editorial by asserting that it is «ironic» that liberals who «denounce anyone who cites
uncertainties about carbon's climate impact as «deniers»» are now «justifying their opposition to fracking based on scientific uncertainties.»
But, if we can reduce
the uncertainty about the carbon sinks, our data could be used to verify the effectiveness of climate mitigations policies.»
Not exact matches
As promising as it sounds, there are many
uncertainties about whether solidifying
carbon dioxide emissions could be a viable part of a climate strategy, said Bert Metz, a fellow at the European Climate Foundation who is unaffiliated with the study and was the lead author of a 2005 IPCC special report on
carbon capture.
So, now instead of
carbon listed as being 12.0107 atomic mass units with a measurement
uncertainty of
about 0.0008, it has an official atomic weight of [12.0096; 12.0116], where the brackets and semicolon indicate an interval of atomic weights.
Uncertainty around that figure means it could be anywhere between 446 and 616 billion tonnes but broadly - speaking, this would mean that
about half the
carbon budget is already spent.
Jane Burston, Head of the Centre for
Carbon Measurement at the National Physical Laboratory, spoke to Climate Action
about how the NPL is reducing
uncertainty in climate data and helping to develop low
carbon technologies.
Clearly, further research into the
carbon cycle will be essential to reduce the level of
uncertainty about the climate system's response to CO2 emissions.For further reading: R. T. Watson et al.: «Green - house gases and aero - sols» in Houghton et al., «Climate Change, the IPCC Scientific Assess - ment», Cambridge (1990).
It's risk assessment theory that is the more appropriate mode of thinking in debating the risks of CO2, knowing what we know
about risk /
uncertainty of the
carbon cycle, paleo - research, modelling, observations, etc..
Disputes within climate science concern the nature and magnitude of feedback processes involving clouds and water vapor,
uncertainties about the rate at which the oceans take up heat and
carbon dioxide, the effects of air pollution, and the nature and importance of climate change effects such as rising sea level, increasing acidity of the ocean, and the incidence of weather hazards such as floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves.
In the face of
uncertainty about future policies to address climate change, companies are using internal
carbon pricing in their strategic planning to manage regulatory risk and explore future scenarios for potential investments.
The conflicting projections and estimates have left scientists and independent experts in a fog of
uncertainty about whether mandating corn - based ethanol leads to higher or lower
carbon emissions.
Indeed, the FAR widened the likely range of temperature increase for a doubling of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the previous assessment, indicating greater
uncertainty, not less,
about this issue.
Facts
about a debate that's turned up more questions than answers,» includes a statement by then Exxon CEO Lee Raymond trumping up
uncertainty in the science behind global warming as well as the cost of a
carbon - restricted market.
Business managers currently face a great deal of
uncertainty about how the transition to a lower -
carbon economy will impact their operations.
This ends up changing estimates of cumulative
carbon emissions since the pre-industrial period, but given the large
uncertainties involved the authors caution against using these revisions to draw conclusions
about remaining
carbon budgets associated with staying within the 2C or 1.5 C warming targets.
The survey indicates pervasive
uncertainty about the future of Australia's
carbon pricing scheme, but also a strong expectation that
carbon pricing will be a feature of Australia's economic policy framework in the medium to long term.
Nevertheless, 69 % of respondents from large
carbon emitters indicate that their companies have cut emissions in anticipation of a
carbon price, and 84 % expect their company to do so over the next three years - not withstanding significant
uncertainty about whether the
carbon price may be repealed.
In the short run, the
uncertainty about future national policy may discourage private investment in renewable energy and other low
carbon technologies.
The
carbon numbers, along with information
about the
uncertainty of the measurements, are important for countries planning to participate in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD +) program.
The main argument for a
carbon tax rather than a trading scheme is that, if there is a lot of
uncertainty about the cost of reducing emissions, and not much
uncertainty about the damage caused by climate change, a fixed price for emissions (that is, a tax) will get closer to the optimal outcome than a fixed quantity.
Despite those who want to strictly regulate
carbon dioxide emissions and increase the cost of energy for all Americans, there is a great amount of
uncertainty about climate science.
The shading indicates a measure of
uncertainty about future sea level for two different scenarios — a low emissions scenario where
carbon emissions are rapidly cut (blue RCP 2.6) and a high emissions scenario with no
carbon cuts (red RCP 8.5).
Given the high
uncertainty about the net effect of human
carbon dioxide emissions on global temperatures, we only see natural changes in climate.
University of Alaska permafrost researcher Vladimir Romanovsky said the models the USGS used in its projections for Alaska's future
carbon storage do not capture the vast
uncertainties about how much methane melting permafrost will emit.
The latter is particularly important because it tells us what the least (and hence most constraining)
carbon budget is that we may encounter at a given level of
uncertainty about the climate.
That is, the greater our
uncertainty about climate sensitivity, the greater the expected (average)
carbon budget that we have available to limit warming to 2 °C.
However, the social cost of
carbon (SCC) is higher (by
about 15 %) under
uncertainty than in the certainty - equivalent case because of asymmetry in the impacts of
uncertainty on the damages from climate change.
This value corresponds to a warming of
about 1.6 (with
uncertainty of 0.4) deg C due to doubling the amount of
carbon dioxide.».
But a lack of demand from
carbon markets and
uncertainty about how many credits could be used as part of future global emissions cuts has scared off many private sector investors.
These findings are not sensitive to a wide range of assumptions, including the time series used to measure temperature, the omission of black
carbon and stratospheric water vapor, and
uncertainty about anthropogenic sulfur emissions and its effect on radiative forcing (SI Appendix: Sections 2.4 — 7).
The
uncertainties can reach centuries or even millennia due to
carbon reservoir effects, wrong assumptions
about sedimentation rates between and beyond the tie - point ages and due to the «lock - in depth», which means that magnetic particles might remain subject to adjustment while the sediment is still unconsolidated.
As of today, significant
uncertainties remain
about the amount and permanence of
carbon sequestration over the full lifecycle of
carbon farming techniques.
What you fail to mention in your «
uncertainty» and your hopelessly pessimistic comment
about China and India is that the
carbon footprint of the average American is 19 tons of CO2 per capita.
There has been no attempt to propagate
uncertainty through the FUND, DICE and PAGE models, not to mention whatever front end assumptions
about carbon and climate are being used as inputs.
Although Table 2 reveals a large estimated
uncertainty about the social cost of
carbon, there is reason to believe that the actual
uncertainty is larger still.
The researchers emphasize that there are numerous
uncertainties about the magnitude of future climate change, such as energy feedbacks from clouds and the
carbon cycle.
The research is a «big advance» that halves the
uncertainty about how much warming is caused by rises in
carbon emissions, according to scientists commenting on the study, published in the journal Nature.
Uncertainty about the modelling approaches is associated with the extent to which substitution is allowed in terms of backstop technology, whether the economy responds efficiently (in terms of the use of CGE models), and whether technological change is assumed to respond to
carbon prices, the topic of the next section.
Uncertainty about the future climatic effect of
carbon dioxide emissions consists of two parts: the future
carbon dioxide concentration given current levels of emissions, and the amount of warming that can be expected from a given
carbon dioxide concentration.