Sentences with phrase «uncertainty estimates for»

Adding the relevant years» total uncertainty estimates for the HadCRUT4 21 - year smoothed decadal data (estimated 5 — 95 % ranges 0.17 °C and 0.126 °C), and very generously assuming the variance uncertainty scales inversely with the number of years averaged, gives an error standard deviation for the change in decadal temperature of 0.08 °C (all uncertainty errors are assumed to be normally distributed, and independent except where otherwise stated).

Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along - Track Scanning Radiometer instruments

Uncertainty estimates for CALS3k.3 and CALS3k.4, which are similar to those for CALS10k.1 b, have been omitted to avoid cluttering the figure.

Subsequent work will involve development of uncertainty estimates for the climatologies and the establishment of regular updates to the monthly maps.

Furthermore, on these times scales the differences between MSU data sets are often not larger than published internal uncertainty estimates for the RSS product alone and therefore may not be statistically significant when the internal uncertainty in each data set is taken into account.

When the interannual variation caused by weather is excluded, uncertainty estimates for soil carbon stock change become unrealistically small.

Since Milankovitch factors are excluded as small, BUT they do exist and by ignoring them you are introducing an increasing underestimation of the incoming solar radiation (& its impact on solar irradiance and on water vapor etc feedbacks), then why is there not an uncertainty estimate for this or better yet an actual estimate of what the under estimation is?

We can apply my simpler bias analysis (which we can now see is limited in that it does not provide an uncertainty estimate for the estimated bias) to HadCRUT3 / 4.

Not exact matches

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.

Such factors include, among others, general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the actual results of current and future exploration activities; the actual results of reclamation activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; meeting various expected cost estimates; changes in project parameters and / or economic assessments as plans continue to be refined; future prices of metals; possible variations of mineral grade or recovery rates; the risk that actual costs may exceed estimated costs; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion of development or construction activities, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled «Risk Factors» in the Company's Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2017 dated March 15, 2018.

Chart 14 shows that the «dispersion of EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies is near all - time lows, likely reflecting an unwillingness of analysts to diverge from consensus amid macro uncertainty.»

Furthermore, establishing a six - month prognosis is fraught with uncertainty even for those making prognostic estimates on a daily basis.

Uncertainty in estimating land use and management impacts on soil organic carbon storage for US agricultural lands between 1982 and 1997.

The estimates in table 1 are a sobering reflection of the perinatal hazards that these women face, 3 4 even if the exact rates have been exaggerated by some underas - certainment of the relevant official denominator figure for all births outside hospital and are subject to uncertainty because sampling methods had to be used to aportion the overall figure.

Decision uncertainty was examined by estimating net benefit statistics and constructing cost effectiveness acceptability curves across cost effectiveness threshold values of between # 0 and # 100000 for the health outcomes of interest.

Home birth is uncommon in the United Kingdom and uncertainty exists about its safety.1 2 Almost all mortality figures available nationally1 provide merely a single global figure for planned and unplanned home births, though the constituent rates differ greatly.3 The only recent figures for planned home birth in England and Wales relating to 19794 and 19935 provide an inaccurately low estimate of risk because it was not possible to account for those mothers who originally booked to have a home delivery but ended up delivering in hospital.

For all low risk women, bootstrapped estimates showed that planned birth in settings other than an obstetric unit was associated with cost savings and considerable stochastic uncertainty surrounding adverse perinatal outcomes.

Two of these reviews produce summary measures suggesting parent training programmes have a significant positive effect in crime prevention [12] and for non-compliant children [13] although this latter review does not provide any indication of the uncertainty of the effect estimate.

There is considerable uncertainty around this estimate, but the authors say that 38 per cent is a robust minimum value for the estimate.

Also, the model - based approach includes measures of uncertainty about our population estimates, which are not usually provided by more common approaches and are crucial for understanding the level of confidence we have about our estimates.»

The measured differences in the mass - to - charge ratios are compatible with zero within the estimated uncertainties, in agreement with expectations for CPT symmetry.

The masses for planet c and planet d are estimated to be about two and a half and four times that of Earth respectively, although the uncertainty in these two determinations is very high.

Faced with these uncertainties, Levison and his group did choose somewhat conservatively from the available population estimates, picking a relatively small figure for the size of the Oort Cloud and a large one for the scattered disk.

The least one ought to be able to expect in a book by a statistician is (a) clear specification of what is being depicted by the numbers that are presented and (b) appropriate indication of the magnitudes of uncertainties (as reflected, for example, in the range of respectable estimates of a quantity of interest).

Reliable uncertainty estimates are needed for the prioritisation of research relating to the development of greenhouse gas inventories and for the assessment of the importance of emission sources and carbon sinks.

«Our results show that the uncertainty estimates of greenhouse gas inventories depend on the calculation method and on how the input data for the model, such as weather and litterfall data, have been averaged,» says Aleksi Lehtonen, researcher at the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke).

«The tide gauge measurements are essential for determining the uncertainty in the GMSL (global mean sea level) acceleration estimate,» said co-author Gary Mitchum, USF College of Marine Science.

However, there may be uncertainty in these estimates, for example depending on the composition of the fuel.

Rather they laid out a strategy to strengthen the scientific basis for the estimates, reduce their uncertainties, and increase transparency of the process.

These confidence limits assume that the overall risk for a given individual is provided by our estimates and should not be interpreted as measuring the overall uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates, as shown in Table 5.

Rough estimates for the cleanup operation across the US, with all its uncertainties, run at some $ 230 billion over 75 years.

Our new -LCB- \ em Spitzer -RCB- observations were taken two years after the original K2 discovery data and have a significantly higher cadence, allowing us to derive improved estimates for this planet's radius, semi-major axis, and orbital period, which greatly reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of near future transit times for the -LCB- \ em James Webb Space Telescope -RCB--LRB--LCB- \ em JWST -RCB--RRB- observations.

Global mean temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.

Quoting the IPCC 1.4 to 5.8 Â °C estimate (for doubling CO2) outside current agreements among models that the uncertainty is most likely in the 2.5 to 4Â °C range or failing to point out that discrepancies (used by skeptics) between surface and troposphere warming have been resolved, is misleading in my view.

We encourage contributions on current and prospective observation technologies for GHGs, modeling studies to quantify budgets and / or uncertainties in GHG flux estimates, and evaluation and benchmarking of GHG estimates from Earth System Models using contemporary observations.

Only a few estimates account for uncertainty in forcings other than from aerosols (e.g., Gregory et al., 2002a; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003); some other studies perform some sensitivity testing to assess the effect of forcing uncertainty not accounted for, for example, in natural forcing (e.g., Forest et al., 2006; see Table 9.1 for an overview).

For each star, we present estimates and uncertainties of mass, age, radius, luminosity, core hydrogen abundance, surface helium abundance, surface gravity, initial helium abundance, and initial metallicity as well as estimates of their evolutionary model parameters of mixing length, overshooting coefficient, and diffusion multiplication factor.

Using TGAS parallaxes in isochrone fitting we are able to reduce distance and age estimate uncertainties for TGAS stars for distances up to 1 kpc by more than one third, compared to results based only on spectrophotometric data.

However, as pointed out by the authors, this estimate does not account for forcing uncertainties.

Where we still have a lot of uncertainties is on what the biological consequences will be and since we do not know exactly the impact for some organisms, it is difficult to estimate the biogeochemical and societal impact.

Ideally, one would want to do a study across all these constraints with models that were capable of running all the important experiments — the LGM, historical period, 1 % increasing CO2 (to get the TCR), and 2xCO2 (for the model ECS)-- and build a multiply constrained estimate taking into account internal variability, forcing uncertainties, and model scope.

We demonstrate that we will be able to improve our distance estimates for about one third of stars in spectroscopic surveys and to decrease log (age) uncertainties by about a factor of two for over 80 % of stars as compared to the uncertainties obtained without parallax priors using Gaia end - of - mission parallaxes consistently with spectrophotometry in isochrone fitting.

The uncertainty in the overall amplitude of the reconstruction of volcanic forcing is also important for quantifying the influence of volcanism on temperature reconstructions over longer periods, but is difficult to quantify and may be a substantial fraction of the best estimate (e.g., Hegerl et al., 2006a).

Data sources for these estimates and uncertainties are provided elsewhere [64].

Projecting future wealth and known future income streams can be a good starting point for estimating a future marginal tax rate (e.g., what will tax rates be for the retiree who already has Social Security benefits, portfolio interest and dividends, real estate or other passive income sources, and / or Required Minimum Distributions [RMDs]-RRB-, but clearly some uncertainty remains, not the least because Congress could just outright change the tax laws between now and then (although even higher tax rates in the future is not a guarantee that Roth conversions are a good idea today!).

As the prize consignment of the week — in a period of uncertainty, when trophies have been hard to come by — the Ames cache had been estimated to sell for at least $ 93 million.

When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy data in the SH.

(in general, whether for future projections or historical reconstructions or estimates of climate sensitivity, I tend to be sympathetic to arguments of more rather than less uncertainty because I feel like in general, models and statistical approaches are not exhaustive and it is «plausible» that additional factors could lead to either higher or lower estimates than seen with a single approach.

Linear regression on monthly temperature data, for instance, will give you a reliable trend, but the estimated * uncertainty * that most computer programs compute for the regression fit will be way off.

The «real» pdf for a variable includes uncertainties beyond simple measurement error and can be difficult to estimate.