Sentences with phrase «uncertainty estimates which»

Using the whole period of data leads to an uncertainty estimate which is a compound of the desired uncertainty, and a bias estimate based on an average over the total span of the reanalysis dataset.

Not exact matches

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.

«Given the uncertainty surrounding the measurement of economic slack, the true amount may be larger than estimated, which could slow down the emergence of price pressures,» Draghi told a regular committee hearing.

But there is uncertainty associated with all the forecasts and some forecasters are trying to estimate the extent of that uncertainty, which in turn can be used to calculate probabilities of particular events (hung parliament, largest party, etc..)

Ms. Ferreras nonetheless acknowledged «many uncertainties» in the plan, including, most notably, unresolved labor contracts with nearly every one of the city's municipal labor unions, which could cost the city as much as $ 7 billion to settle, according to some estimates.

Also, the model - based approach includes measures of uncertainty about our population estimates, which are not usually provided by more common approaches and are crucial for understanding the level of confidence we have about our estimates.»

However, there are large uncertainties in the estimate and it appears it is not compatible with the satellite «handshake» data transmitted from the aircraft, which is currently considered the most reliable source of information.

In particular, uncertainties relating to (a) the fault plane, (b) the rate at which seismic energy is diffused, and (c) the vertical ground movement suggest that JAEA's estimate is too low.4

Our new -LCB- \ em Spitzer -RCB- observations were taken two years after the original K2 discovery data and have a significantly higher cadence, allowing us to derive improved estimates for this planet's radius, semi-major axis, and orbital period, which greatly reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of near future transit times for the -LCB- \ em James Webb Space Telescope -RCB--LRB--LCB- \ em JWST -RCB--RRB- observations.

Global mean temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.

A further consideration in assessing these results is the extent to which realistic forcing estimates were used, and whether forcing uncertainty was included.

However, it is important to realize there is uncertainty in VA measures, which are estimates that may be based on only a few classrooms of students, so the gains from removing teachers identified as ineffective based on a limited number of years of data are smaller.

When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy data in the SH.

Such exercises also provide an estimate of the uncertainty in the reconstruction, which informs comparisons of recent instrumental changes with the longer - term reconstruction.

The model results (which are based on driving various climate models with estimated solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic radiative forcing changes over this timeframe) are, by in large, remarkably consistent with the reconstructions, taking into account the statistical uncertainties.

Finally, I note that statistical uncertainty has been estimated according to the IPCC AR5 method, which was in turn based on the autocorrelation adjustment method in Santer et al (2008) on which you (Gavin) were a co-author.

In particular, our WMMP estimates (Fig. 4d) show a brief shift to wetter conditions pre-CIE, which 15 although uncertainties are large coincides with the first common appearance of the freshwater algae Pediastrum.

Depending on what you are looking at, it could have a bottom up estimate of aerosol forcing or aerosol forcings from a residual calculation — neither of which really have the range of uncertainty.

«The global mean latent heat flux is required to exceed 80 W m — 2 to close the surface energy balance in Figure 2.11, and comes close to the 85 W m — 2 considered as upper limit by Trenberth and Fasullo (2012b) in view of current uncertainties in precipitation retrieval in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, Adler et al., 2012)(the latent heat flux corresponds to the energy equivalent of evaporation, which globally equals precipitation; thus its magnitude may be constrained by global precipitation estimates).

Indeed, the bizarre resulting claim by MM of anomalous 15th century warmth (which falls within the heart of the «Little Ice Age») is at odds with not only the MBH98 reconstruction, but, in fact the roughly dozen other estimates now published that agree with MBH98 within estimated uncertainties.

``... estimates of future rises remain hazy, mostly because there are many uncertainties, from the lack of data on what ice sheets did in the past to predict how they will react to warming, insufficient long - term satellite data to unpick the effects of natural climate change from that caused by man and a spottiness in the degree to which places such as Antarctica have warmed....

Clearly more analysis will clarify the uncertainties in the ocean heat estimates — which are very large and, I believe, may be understated in the Lyman et al paper since they address random but not systematic sources of error.

We ultimately face a question of what we trust more: our estimate of our cumulative emissions to date combined with our full knowledge of how much warming that might imply, or an estimate of how warm the system was in 2014 which is subject to error due to observational uncertainty and natural variability.

(Another fine point: This is slightly less than the central estimate of 43 cm for the A1FI scenario that was reported in the media, taken from earlier drafts of the SPM, because those 43 cm was not the sum of the individual best estimates for the different contributing factors, but rather it was the mid-point of the uncertainty range, which is slightly higher as some uncertainties are skewed towards high values.)

The estimated temperature change of ~ 8 °C is quite a bit warmer than most previous estimates which are more in the range of 2 - 5 °C (though the uncertainty estimates clearly overlap).

During recent years (1993 — 2003), for which the observing system is much better, thermal expansion and melting of land ice each account for about half of the observed sea level rise, although there is some uncertainty in the estimates.

I advise military evaluators to RIGOROUSLY assess the assumptions of statistical models (not to be confused with physical processes) upon which climate scientists, solar scientists, etc. base estimates of uncertainty.

That's an area of active research because the estimates of individual pulses are getting better, but the estimates of how much CO2 would be released associated with an individual pulse is still of the order - of - magnitude uncertainty, which is not helpful to really talk about emission rates.»

So after considering all of that, the estimated current «surface» temperature produces an estimated effective radiant return energy from the atmosphere of about 345Wm - 3 + / - 9 called DWLR which, had the average effective radiant energy of the oceans been used, ~ 334Wm - 2 would have created less confusion and still have been within a more realistic uncertainty range of + / - 17 Wm - 2.

There is currently no consensus on the optimal way to divide computer resources among finer numerical grids, which allow for better simulations; greater numbers of ensemble members, which allow for better statistical estimates of uncertainty; and inclusion of a more complete set of processes (e.g., carbon feedbacks, atmospheric chemistry interactions).

We can apply my simpler bias analysis (which we can now see is limited in that it does not provide an uncertainty estimate for the estimated bias) to HadCRUT3 / 4.

Further estimates of internal variability can be produced from long control simulations with climate models... Expert judgments or multi-model techniques may be used to incorporate as far as possible the range of variability in climate models and to assign uncertainty levels, confidence in which will need to be assessed.»

«When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial - era climate forcing by all short - lived species from black - carbon - rich sources becomes slightly negative -LRB--0.06 W / m2 with 90 % uncertainty bounds of -1.45 to +1.29 W / m2).

Based on collaborations with our research partners, our climate projections make use of this information to produce probabilistic climate projections (as opposed to just «best - estimate» projections), which helps designing strategies for mitigating future climate change and adapting to such changes under uncertainty.

Because Rayner et al. (2006) and Kennedy et al. (2011b) make no attempt to estimate temperatures in grid boxes which contain no observations, an additional uncertainty had to be computed when estimating area - averages.

Because of the many uncertainties involved, any estimate of climate sensitivity comes with a range, a lower and upper limit within which the real value could reasonably lie.

«There are uncertainties inherent in estimating the magnitude of indirect land use emissions from biofuels, but a policy that implicitly or explicitly assigns a value of zero is clearly not supported by the science,» states the letter, which is signed by experts from the World Bank, the Union of Concerned Scientists, and a wide array of academic institutions, among others.

Given current uncertainties, our global - scale estimate of reservoir GHG flux does not account for ice cover, but see the supplemental materials for an estimate of the extent to which ice cover could reduce annual - scale emissions (assuming no turnover emissions).

The standard deviation of the ensemble is 0.38 million km2 which we provide as uncertainty estimate of the prediction.

GFDL NOAA (Msadek et al.), 4.82 (4.33 - 5.23), Modeling Our prediction for the September - averaged Arctic sea ice extent is 4.82 million square kilometers, with an uncertainty range going between 4.33 and 5.23 million km2 Our estimate is based on the GFDL CM2.1 ensemble forecast system in which both the ocean and atmosphere are initialized on August 1 using a coupled data assimilation system.

To estimate the uncertainty range (2σ) for mean tropical SST cooling, we consider the error contributions from (a) large - scale patterns in the ocean data temperature field, which hamper a direct comparison with a coarse - resolution model, and (b) the statistical error for each reconstructed paleo - temperature value.

Spatial sampling uncertainties were estimated by simulating poorly sampled periods (e.g. 1753 to 1850) with modern data (1960 to 2010) for which the Earth coverage was better than 97 % complete, and measuring the departure from the full site average when using only the limited spatial regions available at early times.

We refer to an interpolated data set (Schäfer - Neth and Paul 2003) from which we use the variance V = (1.41 °C) 2 as the starting point to estimate an uncertainty range for the spatial mean of the data field.

The major uncertainties in satellite measurements of upper air temperature are due to sensor and spacecraft biases and instabilities, the characteristics of which need to be estimated by performing satellite intercalibrations during overlapping intervals.

The station data coverage in this region is poor for the E-OBS, which contributes to a relatively large uncertainty in precipitation and temperature estimates for this region in the E-OBS dataset.

Second, using measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations short circuits two layers of modeling which themselves are major sources of uncertainty, namely, estimating global emissions and, then, estimating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations (based on complex models of the global carbon cycle).

I don't have any problem with the fact that there are many time frames over which atmospheric CO2 would respond if emissions were to stop, though I think there is far more uncertainty in the estimates of response over time than is usually acknowledged, and that people with «agendas» consistently discount the response times that do not support their policy positions.

Nic invited me to coauthor this paper, and I was delighted to given my concerns about ignoring uncertainties in external forcing in attribution arguments and climate sensitivity estimates (which I discussed in the Uncertainty Monster paper).

«However, Fig. 15 and the associated uncertainties discussed in Section 3.4 show that long term estimates of time variable sea level acceleration in 203 year global reconstruction are significantly positive, which supports our previous finding (Jevrejeva et al., 2008a), that despite strong low frequency variability (larger than 60 years) the rate of sea level rise is increasing with time.»

The greatest uncertainty in both methods is in estimating the fate of the carbon: the fraction which is burned, rates of decomposition, the effect of burning and harvesting on soil carbon, and subsequent land management.