Sentences with phrase «uncertainty in climate»

The uncertainty in climate sensitivity itself is in my opinion a good reason to demand reductions of global GHG emissions, because the possibility of «a dangerous interference with the climate system» can not be ruled out with high confidence.

They include those items ignored, glossed over, or deliberately misrepresented; projections are consistently wrong; the science has not advanced, a 2007 paper in Science by Roe and Baker concludes; «The envelope of uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably over the past 30 years, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem»; and claims of impending disasters that simply do not make scientific sense.

The second paragraph in the same section finds a clear consensus (72 %) that the scientists feel that uncertainty in climate science is under reported.

If you must know, it was the shady scientific practices and the uncertainty in climate science, as revealed in the East Anglia emails, that finally tipped me over to the sceptics» side.

-LRB-... besides to point out that «the uncertainty in climate projections associated with the physical climate model is smaller than the uncertainty associated with the models of emission scenarios that are used to project carbon dioxide emissions»)

Schwartz (2004) argues that uncertainties in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.

J.P. van der Sluijs, Coping with uncertainty in climate change adaptation: merging top down and bottom up approaches, invited lecture at PBL / Holland Climate House side event at UNFCC COP 15,» The cascade of uncertainties in assessing impacts», 10 December 2009, Bella Center, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Aerosol impacts remain a source of major uncertainty in climate prediction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (2007).5 Recent and ongoing missions and instruments providing aerosol information include TOMS (1979 --RRB-, AVHRR (1979 --RRB-, MODIS (1999 --RRB-, MISR (1999 --RRB-, POLDER (2002 --RRB-, (A) ATSR (1991 --RRB-, PARASOL (2006 --RRB-, SCIAMACHY (2003 --RRB-, CALIPSO (2006 --RRB-, GLAS (2003 --RRB-, OMI (2004 --RRB-, and AIRS (2002 --RRB-.

In my Uncertainty Monster paper, I made scientific and pragmatic arguments for understanding, assessing and reasoning about uncertainty in climate science.

I am a little busy with a new water and environment consultancy — but this needs a brief comment on the major source of uncertainty in climate.

Quantifying uncertainty in climate change science through empirical information theory Andrew J. Majda1 and Boris Gershgorin

Couple of follow up comments and a postscript to Hargreaves «Skill and uncertainty in climate models».

Back at # 46 Gavin said in relationship to Hargreaves «Skill and Uncertainty in climate models» (and the Wiley site is now available):

It is well recognized that our inability to accurately simulate clouds in computer models is the largest uncertainty in climate change projections.

The authors suggest that climate scientists are allowing themselves to be influenced by «contrarian memes» and give too much attention to uncertainty in climate science.

The NIPCC report exaggerates the uncertainty in climate science, but seems to put a lot of faith in elusive and hardly quantified processes such as natural aerosol feedbacks coming to our rescue.

Lindzen isn't highlighting that the large uncertainty in aerosol effects is responsible for much of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates: he's making an unjustified claim that the aerosol negative forcing is small.

N.B. Even if Schmidt is right in his characterisation of the skeptics, that does not imply that the science must be settled, simply because there are areas of real uncertainty in climate science, but they may not be the issues on which he percieves skeptics generally attack.

«We used the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), which quantifies various sources of uncertainty in climate projections,» Gao told environmentalresearchweb.

Therefore, more priority should be placed on reducing the uncertainty in the Damage Function and less on trying to improve the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity.

A key problem for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections is historical records of change are often too short to test the skill of climate models, raising concerns over our ability to successfully plan for the future.

Uncertainty in climate evolution means things are likely to be worse, rather than better, than anticipated.

Also, a very large source of uncertainty in climate projections is the unknown future development of emissions, land use and solar activity.

Limited understanding of clouds is the major source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, but it also contributes substantially to persistent biases in modelled circulation systems.

We have to consider one more aspect of uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

Computational restrictions have thus far restricted the uncertainty space explored in model simulations, so uncertainty in climate predictions may well increase even as computational power increases.

Some of my «opponents» don't see the contradiction when they rely on uncertainty in climate models to «disprove» the general consensus, and yet are content to rely on innuendo to rubbish the scientists.

From this experiment we hoped to achieve a better understanding of the range of uncertainty in climate models due to the parameters in the sulphur cycle.

Reducing these uncertainties would go a long way toward narrowing uncertainty in climate sensitivity and constraining GCM's.

Then there was the particularly interesting session on Construing Uncertainty in Climate Science (maybe that one was particularly interesting because I chaired it).

Uncertainty in climate is absolute — other than some unremarkable physics of greenhouse gases that is more than 100 years old.

There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in climate science, and while most climate scientists and many others understand this and operate rationally with this understanding, it is a huge political issue.

Are you trying to claim there is no uncertainty in climate science?

Interestingly, one of Frame's co-authors, Myles Allen, seems now to have abandoned the Frame 05 advocacy of using a uniform prior in S when estimating S («Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in climate prediction» lecture at Oslo conference, 2010).

In practice, this sequential and conditional approach to representing uncertainty in climate scenarios has at least one severe limitation: at each stage of the cascade, only a limited number of the conditional outcomes have been explicitly modelled.

This post relates to a poster at the American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco in December 2012 that summarizes our work on uncertainty in climate science.

In context of the way climate sensitivity is defined by the IPCC, uncertainty in climate sensitivity is decreasing as errors in previous observational estimates are identified and eliminated and model estimates seem to be converging more.

In other words, I translated the uncertainty in climate sensitivity into uncertainty about the budget that we had left to spend.

The debates are not about CO2 as a GHG etc, but about the degrees of risk and uncertainty in the climate change arguments.

Given current uncertainties in representing convective precipitation microphysics and the current inability to find a clear obser - vational constraint that favors one version of the authors» model over the others, the implications of this ability to engineer climate sensitivity need to be considered when estimating the uncertainty in climate projections.»

All are experts in their fields and have expertise relating to the role of uncertainty in climate change or how best to communicate it.

It consisted of two talks: «Communicating uncertainty in climate information: insights from the behavioural sciences», by Andrea Taylor, University of Leeds (UK) «Event attribution: from research to climate service», by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal National Meteorological Institute - KNMI (The Netherlands)

Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change.

Any change in a model can produce divergent solutions that are not predictable beforehand — it is the nature of the nonlinear Navier - Stokes equations — this extends to the range of uncertainty in climate data and to the number and breadth of couplings.

The findings have generated vigorous international debate about an issue that remains a key area of uncertainty in climate science.

Armour says it makes no sense to scrap missions such as CLARREO as a response to uncertainty in climate science: «These are critical programs.

At the same time, I consider Spencer's work to be appropriate hypothesising on a topic that has substantial uncertainty in climate science.

And even if we aim today to limit warning to below 1.5 °C, the uncertainty in the climate response teaches us that we could well end up with 2 ° or 2.5 °C by the end of the century.»

Yeah, they're keeping that a huge secret: Section 8.6.3.2 of AR4 is called «Clouds,» and contains the statement «cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates.»

The consensus is on warming and its connection to emissions, where a lot more emissions leads to a lot more warming with its ensuing uncertainty in the climate.