Only a few estimates account for
uncertainty in forcings other than from aerosols (e.g., Gregory et al., 2002a; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003); some other studies perform some sensitivity testing to assess the effect of forcing uncertainty not accounted for, for example, in natural forcing (e.g., Forest et al., 2006; see Table 9.1 for an overview).
Not exact matches
In other words, does UNCERTAINTY about forward movement in the administration's program start to affect the financial markets and the market's view of the potential for reforms that have been a significant force in both the equity and bond markets since the electio
In other words, does
UNCERTAINTY about forward movement
in the administration's program start to affect the financial markets and the market's view of the potential for reforms that have been a significant force in both the equity and bond markets since the electio
in the administration's program start to affect the financial markets and the market's view of the potential for reforms that have been a significant
force in both the equity and bond markets since the electio
in both the equity and bond markets since the election?
Important factors that could cause our actual results and financial condition to differ materially from those indicated
in the forward - looking statements include, among
others, the following: our ability to successfully and profitably market our products and services; the acceptance of our products and services by patients and healthcare providers; our ability to meet demand for our products and services; the willingness of health insurance companies and
other payers to cover Cologuard and adequately reimburse us for our performance of the Cologuard test; the amount and nature of competition from
other cancer screening and diagnostic products and services; the effects of the adoption, modification or repeal of any healthcare reform law, rule, order, interpretation or policy; the effects of changes
in pricing, coverage and reimbursement for our products and services, including without limitation as a result of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act of 2014; recommendations, guidelines and quality metrics issued by various organizations such as the U.S. Preventive Services Task
Force, the American Cancer Society, and the National Committee for Quality Assurance regarding cancer screening or our products and services; our ability to successfully develop new products and services; our success establishing and maintaining collaborative, licensing and supplier arrangements; our ability to maintain regulatory approvals and comply with applicable regulations; and the
other risks and
uncertainties described
in the Risk Factors and
in Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations sections of our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and our subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10 - Q.
That discomfort left some
uncertainty as to how closely the new White House - aligned mobilization
in the states would coordinate its grass - roots efforts with those of unions and
other liberal groups that are planning to mobilize their
forces ahead of the negotiations.
In addition, a wide range of forcing schemes designed to span the approximate range of uncertainties associated with anthropogenic climate forcing estimates were generated and implemented in order to assess what differences in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering forcing scheme and other plausible scheme
In addition, a wide range of
forcing schemes designed to span the approximate range of
uncertainties associated with anthropogenic climate
forcing estimates were generated and implemented
in order to assess what differences in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering forcing scheme and other plausible scheme
in order to assess what differences
in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering forcing scheme and other plausible scheme
in effects exist between the «best guess» counter-anthropogenic geoengineering
forcing scheme and
other plausible schemes.
Uncertainties in non-CO2
forcings concern principally solar, aerosol and
other GHG
forcings.
The assessment based on these results typically takes into account the number of studies, the extent to which there is consensus among studies on the significance of detection results, the extent to which there is consensus on the consistency between the observed change and the change expected from
forcing, the degree of consistency with
other types of evidence, the extent to which known
uncertainties are accounted for
in and between studies, and whether there might be
other physically plausible explanations for the given climate change.
Modelling
uncertainty currently is such that
in some climate models, this amount of freshwater (without any
other forcing) would shut down deep water formation,
in some it wouldn't.
In other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perio
In other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos
in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perio
in some circumstances, but that the
forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant
uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures
in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perio
in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar period.
If she accepts that attribution is amenable to quantitative analysis using some kind of model (doesn't have to be a GCM), I don't get why she doesn't accept that the numbers are going to be different for different time periods and have varying degrees of
uncertainty depending on how good the
forcing data is and what
other factors can be brought
in.
However, the dominance of well - mixed greenhouse gases on the anthropogenic
forcing over the last few decades is robust to almost any estimate of the
uncertainty in the
other forcings.
There is the possibility that the relative importance of CO2 as a climate forcer increases as it transcends the
other controllers of Earth's energy balance (some of which may be masked more
in ice age studies — like
uncertainties around the amount of ice age aerosol climate
forcing, ice age thermohaline stability and as always insolation differences throughout the Pleistocene).
On the
other hand, if this error, + / - 4, represented the derivative of the cloud
forcing with respect to time, then, yes, the total cloud
forcing uncertainty would grow over time and without bound, just like how,
in the example above, the
uncertainty in the derivative of distance - traveled caused the
uncertainty in distance - traveled to grow over time without bound.
However, for several reasons, there is still a significant
uncertainty in the climate sensitivity parameter, which relates greenhouse gas concentration (or
other forcings) to steady - state temperature.
Previous large natural oscillations are important to examine: however, 1) our data isn't as good with regards to external
forcings or to historical temperatures, making attribution more difficult, 2) to the extent that we have solar and volcanic data, and paleoclimate temperature records, they are indeed fairly consistent with each
other within their respective
uncertainties, and 3) most mechanisms of internal variability would have different fingerprints: eg, shifting of warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere (but we see warming
in both), or simultaneous warming of the troposphere and stratosphere, or shifts
in global temperature associated with major ocean current shifts which for the most part haven't been seen.
However, the separation of greenhouse gas response from the responses to
other external
forcing in a multi-fingerprint analysis introduces a small
uncertainty, illustrated by small differences
in results between three models (Figure 9.21).
In AR4 these mostly offset each
other, but AR5 does have central estimates with wide
uncertainties that the
forcing really is changing faster than that from CO2 alone while the AR4 offsetting is still comfortably within the
uncertainty too.
It also means emissions of
other GHGs have to be addressed to the extent they really do add 40 % to the CO2
forcing, but the
uncertainty is CO2
forcing + 35 % + / - 65 % from aerosols + GHGs
in AR5.
In most cases, these range from about 2 to 4.5 C per doubled CO2 within the context of our current climate — with a most likely value between 2 and 3 C. On the
other hand, chapter 9 describes attempts ranging far back into paleoclimatology to relate
forcings to temperature change, sometimes directly (with all the attendant
uncertainties), and more often by adjusting model parameters to determine the climate sensitivity ranges that allow the models to best simulate data from the past — e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
In fact Andrew Dessler and
other climate scientists have made this point, that the «instrumental» method
uncertainties are too large to tightly constrain climate sensitivity, because of the uncertain aerosol
forcing, among othe reasons.
Take a look at the
uncertainties on the
other forcings in the 4AR.
Planning for the future price of emitting one ton of carbon dioxide can seem like a game of chance,
in which electric utilities and
other stakeholders are
forced to bet on
uncertainties.
This scale factor was based on simulations with an early climate model [3,92]; comparable
forcings are found
in other models (e.g. see discussion
in [93]-RRB-, but results depend on cloud representations, assumed ice albedo and
other factors; so the
uncertainty is difficult to quantify.
Just eyeballing the figures it appears to me you could make up the lost
forcing just
in the
uncertainty alone on the
other figures.
Uncertainties in forcings and
in climate models» temperature responses to individual
forcings and difficulty
in distinguishing the patterns of temperature response due to GHGs and
other anthropogenic
forcings prevent a more precise quantification of the temperature changes attributable to GHGs.
Again, the total
forcing is well known, so are the natural and internal variation
forcings - meaning that the higher
uncertainties in GHGs and
other anthropogenic
forcings are indeed negatively correlated.
«Coupled with the
uncertainty caused by the government proposals to remove from scope whole areas of legal aid provision, those from low income backgrounds who are willing to forego the riches of the City or
other sectors such as banking, but equally can not afford to risk indefinite periods of unemployment, will be
forced to give up on the idea of pursuing a career
in legal aid.»
«The imminent threat of repeal, and the
uncertainty of what any replacement will look like has
forced Connecticut and states across the country to act immediately to protect against a dangerous void of necessary health care provisions... Over 55 million women now have coverage for birth control and
other preventive services without out - of - pocket costs, which saved women $ 1.4 billion on birth control pills alone
in 2013.»