Sentences with phrase «uncertainty in forecasting»

Projecting the future water balance and moisture state of Arctic soils — and thus the ratio of CO2 to CH4 production — contributes the largest uncertainty in forecasting methane emissions from Arctic land surfaces.

Over decades, improvements in observations of the present climate, reconstructions of ancient climate, and computer models that simulate past, current, and future climate have reduced some of the uncertainty in forecasting how rising temperatures will ripple through the climate system.

There is such uncertainty in forecasting point estimates that past 1 - year in the future a real «no change» forecast is the best guess.

Given the uncertainties in forecasting, these adjustments are questionable.

Then, almost as a joke: «The OBR notes that there is a higher than usual degree of uncertainty in this forecast.»

This is because clouds have more - complex microphysics than the open sky, so even small errors in the models can cascade into large uncertainties in the forecast.

But although Velders and other scientists routinely acknowledge the uncertainty in their forecasts, «that's not what politicians do,» says Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development in Washington, D.C., which backed aggressive HFC reductions.

Furthermore, we unequivocally find statistically significant correlations in out - of - sample international and emerging markets similar to those we find in U.S. markets, although the timing signal has unsurprising uncertainty in any forecast of alpha (it's pretty noisy).

The models don't by any means capture the uncertainty in their forecasts, and their are a large number of other sources of uncertainty in the models used to forecast emissions from concentrations).

Professor Curry has led debate in the science community about the process of reviewing climate change, including giving testimony before the US house subcommittee on environment this year, remarking on the many large uncertainties in forecasting future climate.

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast; Zhang and Lindsay point out that the standard deviation in the model ensemble is high in this area (Figure 2b).

Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast, it is very likely that 2015 will be one of the warmest years in a series dating back to 1880.

Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast; Zhang and Lindsay point out that the standard deviation in the model ensemble is high in this area (Figure 2, right).

Danny, for weather there are many past forecasts that can be verified against what happened, so the uncertainty in forecasts can be quantified by the range of the errors.

The chief uncertainties in these forecasts are the exact timing and amplitude of the 960 year periodicity and the variable lag times between the solar activity driver peaks and their appearance in the climate data in different regions.

Not exact matches

As with any projection or forecast, these statements are inherently susceptible to uncertainty and changes in circumstances.

The majority of banks and economists have forecast a UK recession in the wake of Britain's shock decision to leave the European Union, as investment and trade suffer from the uncertainty around the country's future.

Singapore downgraded its forecasts on economic growth and exports for 2016 after confirming a contraction in output in the third quarter, raising the risk of a recession amid fresh uncertainty around global trade under U.S. President - elect Donald Trump.

However, given the uncertainties caused by the financial crisis, the Harper Government introduced the «risk adjustment factor» in its October 2010 Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections, whereby the average of the private sector economic forecasts for nominal GDP was adjusted downwards for fiscal planning purposes.

The PBO should have included have included a risk adjustment in its forecast to reflect these uncertainties.

Including a risk factor in the PBO forecast to allow for uncertainties in achieving spending reductions would eliminate the PBO forecast of a surplus in 2015 - 16

Apart from the uncertainty associated with the risks noted above and the lack of credible prudence in the budget projections, we continue to believe that the forecast for «other revenues» is overstated and that for «direct program expenses» is understated.

Both studies came to the same basic conclusion: that the risks and uncertainties involved in budget forecasting were simply too large to allow for a high level of forecast accuracy.

While the industry waits for metals prices and demand to pick up again — which some forecasts are predicting could start in the second half of 2009 — Ryan Montpellier, executive director of the Mining Industry Human Resources Council (MiHR) is hoping the bad news and uncertainty don't scare too many people off.

It's also the greatest source of uncertainty in the overall forecast.

Since the average error in a 2 - day forecast is about 90 miles, it is important to remember that the models may still have additional shifts, and one must pay attention to the NHC cone of uncertainty.

Powell has in the past expressed a view that Fed communication «should do more to emphasize the uncertainty that surrounds all economic forecasts, should downplay short - term tactical questions such as the timing of the next rate increase, and should focus the public's attention instead on the considerations that go into making policy across the range of plausible paths for the economy.»

Overall, the IMF's prediction for global growth of 3.1 % in 2016 remained subdued, with the institution citing the uncertainty created by the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union (EU) and slower - than - expected US growth as restraining factors since its last set of forecasts in April.

Moreover, for all the uncertainties of long - term population forecasting, the likely change in size and composition of a national population can be predicted over the course of the coming calendar year with far greater certainty than can changes in the harvest, the gross national product, the unemployment rate, the foreign exchange rate, or the demand for any particular product.

But there is uncertainty associated with all the forecasts and some forecasters are trying to estimate the extent of that uncertainty, which in turn can be used to calculate probabilities of particular events (hung parliament, largest party, etc..)

The severity of that decline is likely to be a short term response to heightened uncertainty - even the severe forecast on Britain leaving the single market only suggests a 2.4 % rise in unemployment from where it would have been in 2018.

These changes happen in every electoral cycle and are the reason that decades of forecasts of new settlements, moulds being broken and unprecedented uncertainty are usually wrong.

To do this, they run simulations at slightly lower resolutions under different hypothetical conditions to determine where the uncertainties are in the forecasts.

This is still a big uncertainty in temperature forecasting.

«While there is some uncertainty regarding the size, position and timing of this year's hypoxic zone in the Gulf, the forecast models are in overall agreement that hypoxia will be larger than we have typically seen in recent years.»

As we mentioned briefly, that leads to a «sweet spot» for forecasting of a couple of decades into the future where the initial condition uncertainty dies away, but the uncertainty in the emission scenario is not yet so large as to be dominating.

In September, the observed CO2 concentration of 401.01 was slightly below our central forecast, but still within our published uncertainty bounds.

While there is always uncertainty in population projections, Australia's total population as well as the number of births is forecast to grow over the long term [13].

«With the uncertainty over where free schools are going to open in the borough it is difficult to forecast places available,» said Cllr Walker.

These forecasts have uncertainty that, in most cases, is larger than the alpha forecast.

In fact, I find that for the lowest uncertainty stocks analysts, on average, exhibit no upward earnings forecast bias within a calendar year.

Human beings take comfort in forecasts because we detest uncertainty.

In Andrew Revkin's article today entitled «In Greenland, Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissionIn Andrew Revkin's article today entitled «In Greenland, Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissionIn Greenland, Ice and Instability», there is the quote: Eric Rignot, a longtime student of ice sheets at both poles for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said he hoped the public and policymakers did not interpret uncertainty in the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissionin the 21st - century forecast as reason for complacency on the need to limit risks by cutting emissions.

There are uncertainties in parts of the general circulation models used to forecast future climate, but thousands of scientists have made meticulous efforts to make sure that the processes are based on observations of basic physics, laboratory measurements, and sound theoretical calculations.

So any uncertainty in the current atmospheric state, however, small, will ultimately grow and prevent accurate weather forecasts in the long term.

-- A new post on ClimateEthics.org argues, as others have before, for another uncomfortable reality: Complacency is not an ethical response to the persistent uncertainty clouding forecasts of harmful impacts from the continuing buildup of human - generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

I contacted Dr. Alley last night to see where he'll focus in coming years, and he stressed the importance of two things — bridging the persistent gap between scientists and the public on climate and working to reduce persistent uncertainties in climate forecasts: Read more...

In other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perioIn other words, it is possible that the the climate system does exhibit some kind of long - term chaos in some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perioin some circumstances, but that the forcing is strong enough to wipe out any significant uncertainty due to initial conditions — at least if one is content to forecast statistical quantities such as, for example, decadal mean January temperatures in some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar perioin some suitably large region, or perhaps temperature variances or quartiles taken over a similar period.

A new post on ClimateEthics.org argues, «Complacency is not an ethical response to the persistent uncertainty clouding forecasts of harmful impacts from the continuing buildup of human - generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.»