Sentences with phrase «uncertainty in its projections for»

The big takeaway from this study: While there is uncertainty in projections for changes in the climate indices reviewed here (especially El Niño and La Niña), this study serves to alert us to the fact that the climate impacts that our local coastal communities face are based in large part on changes that occur on both a large, global scale and over the long, decadal term.

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report contained significant uncertainty in its projections for glacier contributions to sea level rise over the course of the 21st century.

Not exact matches

However, given the uncertainties caused by the financial crisis, the Harper Government introduced the «risk adjustment factor» in its October 2010 Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections, whereby the average of the private sector economic forecasts for nominal GDP was adjusted downwards for fiscal planning purposes.

In consultation with a divorce financial planner, who can assist you in gaining financial control from possible economic uncertainty, account for budgetary projections and calculate what realistic financial resources you will have to pay for your retiremenIn consultation with a divorce financial planner, who can assist you in gaining financial control from possible economic uncertainty, account for budgetary projections and calculate what realistic financial resources you will have to pay for your retiremenin gaining financial control from possible economic uncertainty, account for budgetary projections and calculate what realistic financial resources you will have to pay for your retirement.

Apart from the uncertainty associated with the risks noted above and the lack of credible prudence in the budget projections, we continue to believe that the forecast for «other revenues» is overstated and that for «direct program expenses» is understated.

We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics, including warming and ocean heat content.»

Due mainly to uncertainties in future greenhouse emissions, projections for the 2050s and 2080s diverge more — but in all scenarios mortality would rise steeply.

An important goal of climate research is to reduce and characterize uncertainty in the climate change projections so that they can be more useful for assessing climate change impacts and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.

As research leaders in developing and using models to provide scientific insights into weather and climate change, Qian and others are striving to understand uncertainty in systems and modeling to improve projections and help prepare vulnerable regions for potential climate change impact.

It is not all that earthshaking that the numbers in Schmittner et al come in a little low: the 2.3 ºC is well within previously accepted uncertainty, and three of the IPCC AR4 models used for future projections have a climate sensitivity of 2.3 ºC or lower, so that the range of IPCC projections already encompasses this possibility.

Due to an expected additional drag on global investment connected to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, the report included slightly lower projections for export growth in 2017 and 2018 compared to the bank's earlier predictions.

The data looks at historical and current information, not future projections For - profit education stocks have a cloud of uncertainty weighing on their share prices as investors worry about the potential for litigation and additional regulation (STRA also appeared in one my recent Seeking Alpha article here where I discussed its recent performancFor - profit education stocks have a cloud of uncertainty weighing on their share prices as investors worry about the potential for litigation and additional regulation (STRA also appeared in one my recent Seeking Alpha article here where I discussed its recent performancfor litigation and additional regulation (STRA also appeared in one my recent Seeking Alpha article here where I discussed its recent performance).

None of the large scale models used for the IPCC projections have been calibrated on the last millennium — because of uncertainty in the temperatures and uncertainties in the forcings.

(in general, whether for future projections or historical reconstructions or estimates of climate sensitivity, I tend to be sympathetic to arguments of more rather than less uncertainty because I feel like in general, models and statistical approaches are not exhaustive and it is «plausible» that additional factors could lead to either higher or lower estimates than seen with a single approach.

Periods that are of possibly the most interest for testing sensitivities associated with uncertainties in future projections are the mid-Holocene (for tropical rainfall, sea ice), the 8.2 kyr event (for the ocean thermohaline circulation), the last two millennia (for decadal / multi-decadal variability), the last interglacial (for ice sheets / sea level) etc..

In the political arena, things like natural variablity and uncertainty are introduced quite often, but in Science, the logic is reversed: if the past is more variable than we think, or the more uncertainty in higher - end projections, the more worry for the futurIn the political arena, things like natural variablity and uncertainty are introduced quite often, but in Science, the logic is reversed: if the past is more variable than we think, or the more uncertainty in higher - end projections, the more worry for the futurin Science, the logic is reversed: if the past is more variable than we think, or the more uncertainty in higher - end projections, the more worry for the futurin higher - end projections, the more worry for the future.

In fact it is the opposite — Hansen is actually claiming that the uncertainty in models (for instance, in the climate sensitivity) is now less than the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projectionsIn fact it is the opposite — Hansen is actually claiming that the uncertainty in models (for instance, in the climate sensitivity) is now less than the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projectionsin models (for instance, in the climate sensitivity) is now less than the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projectionsin the climate sensitivity) is now less than the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projectionsin the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projectionsin the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projectionsin the projections).

PLUMES (Pathways for linking uncertainties in climate model projections and effects)(2014 - 2018).

In addition to assessing changes in ESL frequencies, the authors also highlighted the importance of the uncertainties inherent to the extreme value analysis, which have often been ignored in impact studies, and demonstrated how they can be accounted for alongside the uncertainties in SLR projectionIn addition to assessing changes in ESL frequencies, the authors also highlighted the importance of the uncertainties inherent to the extreme value analysis, which have often been ignored in impact studies, and demonstrated how they can be accounted for alongside the uncertainties in SLR projectionin ESL frequencies, the authors also highlighted the importance of the uncertainties inherent to the extreme value analysis, which have often been ignored in impact studies, and demonstrated how they can be accounted for alongside the uncertainties in SLR projectionin impact studies, and demonstrated how they can be accounted for alongside the uncertainties in SLR projectionin SLR projections.

According to GWEC, projections are strong for North American in 2015 & 2016 but projecting beyond that is difficult due to uncertainty with regards to policy and potential changes within the US Congress.

In fact, uncertainties in how clouds change with warming are the primary source of the large spread in climate projections for the next century (Bony and Dufresne 2005; Vial et al. 2013; Brient and Schneider 2016In fact, uncertainties in how clouds change with warming are the primary source of the large spread in climate projections for the next century (Bony and Dufresne 2005; Vial et al. 2013; Brient and Schneider 2016in how clouds change with warming are the primary source of the large spread in climate projections for the next century (Bony and Dufresne 2005; Vial et al. 2013; Brient and Schneider 2016in climate projections for the next century (Bony and Dufresne 2005; Vial et al. 2013; Brient and Schneider 2016).

Furthermore, the parameters for the certainty or uncertainty of continued sea ice loss can be established based on projections of total energy content in the Arctic environment.

Differences between high and low projections in climate models used by the IPCC stem mainly from uncertainties over feedback mechanisms - for example, how the carbon cycle and clouds will react to future warming.

Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and are therefore subject to substantial uProjections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and are therefore subject to substantial uprojections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.

The best example I've found of clear thinking about how to develop strategies for dealing with the uncertainties that inevitably arise when moving from the abstract to the specific is contained in the UK Climate Projections report of 2009 on London.

In this way the climate scientists can ensure that the projections are understood with their associated uncertainties, and the impacts / adaptation researchers can ensure that the climate scientists are aware of the parts of the climate system they are most sensitive to, providing a focus for climate model development efforts.

Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uProjections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uprojections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Of course, this relies on the uncertainty in the regional TYPE 4 climate projection OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE STATISTICS IN THE COMING DECADES being small enough for the information to be useful in a risk assessment procesin the regional TYPE 4 climate projection OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE STATISTICS IN THE COMING DECADES being small enough for the information to be useful in a risk assessment procesIN CLIMATE STATISTICS IN THE COMING DECADES being small enough for the information to be useful in a risk assessment procesIN THE COMING DECADES being small enough for the information to be useful in a risk assessment procesin a risk assessment process.

Based on the rather vast uncertainties in aerosol forcing, and the substantial discrepancies between model projections of ocean heat uptake and measured heat uptake (ARGO), it strikes me as bizarre that the IPCC insists on excluding the possibility of quite low sensitivity, when there is a wealth of evidence for fairly low sensitivity.

Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

In the second part, the downscaling methods were used to make projections of future climate extremes, which were then examined for consistency and to determine the contribution of individual factors, such as choice of downscaling method and climate model, to the overall uncertainty.

Analyses of tide gauge and altimetry data by Vinogradov and Ponte (2011), which indicated the presence of considerably small spatial scale variability in annual mean sea level over many coastal regions, are an important factor for understanding the uncertainties in regional sea - level simulations and projections at sub-decadal time scales in coarse - resolution climate models that are also discussed in Chapter 13.

But then came Climategate plus the revelation of IPCC screw - ups and, with them, the growing suspicion that the «science» had been «cooked» — or, at least, that IPCC had understated uncertainties in the attribution of climate change as well as in the projections for the future.

Uncertainty in natural climate drivers, for example how much solar output will change over this century, also affects the accuracy of projections.

University of Alaska permafrost researcher Vladimir Romanovsky said the models the USGS used in its projections for Alaska's future carbon storage do not capture the vast uncertainties about how much methane melting permafrost will emit.

The Process Study and Model Improvement (PSMI) Panel's mission is to reduce uncertainties in the general circulation models used for climate variability prediction and climate change projections through an improved understanding and representation of the physical processes governing climate and its variation.

I may be wrong, but It appears to me that her motive is to expose IPCC claims of overconfidence in a science, which she feels is still loaded with too much uncertainty to be able to make any real claims regarding the past or projections for the future, IOW to act as sort of a «BS filter».

Does that mean you disagree with Lucia's use of the historical variability in real world weather to estimate the uncertainty intervals for the IPCC projections?

Combining information from four RCM simulations, Christensen et al. (2001) and Rummukainen et al. (2003) demonstrate that it is feasible to explore not only uncertainties related to projections in the mean climate state, but also for higher - order statistics.

Climate projections are distinguished from a href = «c.html #climate - predictions» > climate predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission / concentration / radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

As Pekka points out, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the magnitude of projections, but paleoclimatologic data indicate that they are likely to be sufficient to impair the calcification processes essential for the integrity of many marine species involved in the food chain, and thus of concern to us to the extent that our civilization is linked to the welfare of ocean biology...

A key problem for reducing the uncertainty in climate projections is historical records of change are often too short to test the skill of climate models, raising concerns over our ability to successfully plan for the future.

Uncertainty in regional climate projections isn't going away, and that's an inconvenient truth the development community will have to face, says Christoph Müller of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany.

Ensembles of climate models, sampling uncertainties in model formulation, are commonly used as the basis for generation of probabilistic projections.

This should, in theory, lead to more realistic projections for the future, but many of the climate modellers I spoke to were keen to point out that simulating the climate with more complex models may well lead to greater uncertainty about what the future holds.

Indeed, activists recently jumped to criticize an energy industry lawyer for quoting from the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's assessments on climate change, which have consistently noted the uncertainty inherent in climate projections.

In order for society to efficiently mitigate and adapt to climate change, it is necessary to have climate projections accompanied by assessments of the uncertainty in the projectionIn order for society to efficiently mitigate and adapt to climate change, it is necessary to have climate projections accompanied by assessments of the uncertainty in the projectionin the projections.

By the statistical evaluation of the different climate developments simulated, the uncertainties in climate projections can be better estimated and reduced, for example, for rainfall trends.

For JJA, the uncertainty in the projections mostly originates from differences in modelled precipitation changes.