As a result, I suspect that applying the volcanic correction actually increases the uncertainty in the trend of the adjusted series, because of
the uncertainty in the correction.
Not exact matches
«If the geopolitical tension subsides or results
in a smaller supply disruption than currently priced
in, we are likely to see a sharp pull - back
in investor positioning and an even sharper
correction in oil prices than the $ 5 or so that might be warranted even as macro
uncertainties persist,» U.S. bank Citi said
in a note to investors.
Although it's still too early to determine if we are starting the next leg of the
correction, market participants are still spooked about regulatory
uncertainty in South Korea, not to mention the collapse of another notable project
in BitConnect.
«One of the reasons to wait is to find out do we get
uncertainty in the market about future economic policy and does that create a
correction in the equity market and slow down business engagement?»
These divergences suggest that there is still a lot of
uncertainty surrounding satellite temperature records that needs to be resolved, as the range of reasonable assumptions for
corrections can lead to large differences
in results.
Introduction to investing concepts, including the impact of investing fees on returns and the cost of advice; where returns come from; what indexes are; what mutual funds are; risk and historical returns; taxation issues and TFSAs, RRSPs, and RESPs; the importance of planning and the impact of inflation on long - term plans; the inherent
uncertainty in long - term planning and the need to make regular course
corrections; and what asset allocation is.
HadSST3 not only greatly expands the amount of raw data processed, it makes some important improvements
in how the
uncertainties are dealt with and has a more Bayesian probabilistic treatment of the necessary bias
corrections.
ISO / IEC Guide 98 - 3:2008 is a reissue of the 1995 version of the Guide to the Expression of
Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), with minor
corrections.
In the context of parametric uncertainty for the bias corrections, the determination of uncertainty is associated with a number of underlying assumptions that are uncertain in themselve
In the context of parametric
uncertainty for the bias
corrections, the determination of
uncertainty is associated with a number of underlying assumptions that are uncertain
in themselve
in themselves.
I would also say that, although TOBS
corrections are not done for all global data, the TOBS error
uncertainty shown
in this chart is probably present
in most global data, as probably relatively few stations have an effective observation time of midnight.
This study showed that the formal errors may not capture the true
uncertainty in either regional or global ocean mass trends, particularly with regards to the glacial isostatic
correction used.
If a bias
correction is made which applies to all the measurements
in a particular month, the the resulting
uncertainty in the global temperature will be just as big as the corresponding
uncertainty in any individual cell.
Choice of GIA
correction is critical
in the trends for the local and regional sea levels, introducing up to 8 mm · yr − 1
uncertainties for individual tide gauge records, up to 2 mm · yr − 1 for regional curves and up to 0.3 — 0.6 mm · yr − 1
in global sea level reconstruction.
The most recent exposition of CRU methodology is Brohan et al 2006, which stated
in respect to UHI that they included an allowance of 0.1 deg C / century
in the
uncertainty, but does not describe any «
correction» to the reported average temperature:
Be that as it may, Brohan et al 2006 does not say that they make any «
correction» to their records for UHI, only that they make a slight increase
in «
uncertainty» — a completely different thing even
in Gavin - World.
For instance, the dependence of the
corrections on other information (such as regional station moves, which
in itself has been found on occasion to be inaccurate) can be considered an indication of the
uncertainty and limitations of the «corrective approach» that is being sought.
Systemic
corrections can be added --- as long as they contain the
uncertainty in the magnitude of the
correction.
a
Uncertainties (2 sigma) du to: data gaps and random errors estimated by RSOA (heavy solid); SST bias -
corrections (heavy dashes); urbanisation (light dashes); changes
in thermometer exposures on LAT (light solid).
Table 2.2 shows linear trends of the annual optimum averages, and twice their standard errors, for the globe and hemispheres using the restricted maximum likelihood method as
in Table 2.1 and allowing for the annual
uncertainties due to data gaps, urbanisation over land, and bias
corrections to SST.
However unlike the Jones et al. estimates of
uncertainty, the optimum average also includes
uncertainties in bias
corrections to SST up to 1941 (Folland and Parker, 1995) and the
uncertainties (as included
in Figure 2.1)
in the land data component that are due to urbanisation.
A
correction field is added to account for ensemble - mean differences between the equilibrium and transient patterns, and
uncertainty is allowed for
in the emulated result.
Although it's still too early to determine if we are starting the next leg of the
correction, market participants are still spooked about regulatory
uncertainty in South Korea, not to mention the collapse of another notable project
in BitConnect.
Historically, that's an early sign of a
correction as sellers try to take gains
in advance of
uncertainty.»