Sentences with phrase «uncertainty in the forecast»

The third big source of uncertainty in our forecast is how our economy will ultimately adjust to a world of significantly lower oil prices.
There is such uncertainty in forecasting point estimates that past 1 - year in the future a real «no change» forecast is the best guess.
Professor Curry has led debate in the science community about the process of reviewing climate change, including giving testimony before the US house subcommittee on environment this year, remarking on the many large uncertainties in forecasting future climate.
There is significant uncertainty in the forecast; Zhang and Lindsay point out that the standard deviation in the model ensemble is high in this area (Figure 2b).
Furthermore, we unequivocally find statistically significant correlations in out - of - sample international and emerging markets similar to those we find in U.S. markets, although the timing signal has unsurprising uncertainty in any forecast of alpha (it's pretty noisy).
The actual uncertainty in the forecast (i.e. stepping from emissions to concentrations) is of course much much higher than the range shown by model runs for at least two reasons.
Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.
The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by the chaotic nature of the evolution equations of the atmosphere, this is often referred to as sensitive dependence on the initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical methods to solve the equations.
There is significant uncertainty in the forecast; Zhang and Lindsay point out that the standard deviation in the model ensemble is high in this area (Figure 2, right).
This is because clouds have more - complex microphysics than the open sky, so even small errors in the models can cascade into large uncertainties in the forecast.
Given the uncertainties in forecasting, these adjustments are questionable.
Then, almost as a joke: «The OBR notes that there is a higher than usual degree of uncertainty in this forecast
But although Velders and other scientists routinely acknowledge the uncertainty in their forecasts, «that's not what politicians do,» says Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development in Washington, D.C., which backed aggressive HFC reductions.
To model the uncertainty in the forecast for both scenarios, we added autocorrelated noise based on the power spectrum of noise from the 1950 — 2010 merged ERSST series [58].
The models don't by any means capture the uncertainty in their forecasts, and their are a large number of other sources of uncertainty in the models used to forecast emissions from concentrations).
Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast, it is very likely that 2015 will be one of the warmest years in a series dating back to 1880.
Over decades, improvements in observations of the present climate, reconstructions of ancient climate, and computer models that simulate past, current, and future climate have reduced some of the uncertainty in forecasting how rising temperatures will ripple through the climate system.
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