Sentences with phrase «uncertainty in the projections»

The sensitivity of the climate system to an imposed radiative imbalance remains the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report contained significant uncertainty in its projections for glacier contributions to sea level rise over the course of the 21st century.
to project both how global average temperature will respond to future emissions and the associated uncertainty in those projections.
Scarborough accepted there are significant uncertainties in the projections and the study says the projected deaths in 2050 ranges between 314,000 and 736,000.
These changes are likely to have significant impacts on marine ecosystem productivity globally, with uncertainties in projections of NPP using six mainly IS92a - based scenarios narrowing to an increase of between 0.7 % and 8.1 % by mid-century -LRB-?
Data from our «eyes» in space allow us to verify our simulations of past and current climate, which, in turn, helps us reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate,» said Josh Fisher, a co-author on the study who works at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in a release.
It gives a big uncertainty in projections going further forward in time because we don't understand the way they work, and it also gives big uncertainty to things like extreme precipitation — so that we don't understand rainfall extremes that well.
The response to global warming of deep convective clouds is also a substantial source of uncertainty in projections since current models predict different responses of these clouds.
However, we have not examined anew the many uncertainties in these projections, such as their implicit assumptions with regard to the workings of the world economy and the role of the biosphere in the carbon cycle.
Uncertainty in these projections due to potential future climate change effects on the ocean carbon cycle (mainly through changes in temperature, ocean stratification and marine biological production and re-mineralization; see Box 7.3) are small compared to the direct effect of rising atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic emissions.
As noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is considerable uncertainty in projections of future radiative forcing of earth's climate.
The big takeaway from this study: While there is uncertainty in projections for changes in the climate indices reviewed here (especially El Niño and La Niña), this study serves to alert us to the fact that the climate impacts that our local coastal communities face are based in large part on changes that occur on both a large, global scale and over the long, decadal term.
to project both how global average temperature will respond to future emissions and the associated uncertainty in those projections.
Much of the uncertainty in projections of global climate change is due to the complexity of clouds, aerosols, and cloud - aerosol interactions, and the difficulty of incorporating this information into climate models.
Different models make different approximations and this contributes to uncertainty in their projections.
In fact it is the opposite — Hansen is actually claiming that the uncertainty in models (for instance, in the climate sensitivity) is now less than the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios (i.e. it is the uncertainty in the forcings, that drives the uncertainty in the projections).
A set of scenarios is often adopted to reflect, as well as possible, the range of uncertainty in projections.
In her talk, she examined how the choice of downscaling technique affects the uncertainty in projections of annual extremes in the Peace River Basin, using four reanalysis products and downscaling with six different statistical models.
Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change.
Given that assumption there can be no conceptualization of uncertainty in the projections.
Since then, despite a massive improvement in models and in our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, the uncertainty in our projections of temperature change has stubbornly refused to narrow (Houghton et al. 2001).
The use of ensemble simulations has enabled quantitative estimates regarding the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional climate changes (Rowell, 2006 (Errata); Déqué et al., 2005, 2007; Beniston et al., 2007; Frei et al., 2006; Graham et al., 2007).
27 Conclusions: Uncertainties in projections of global warming are closely related to uncertainties in climate sensitivity to external forcing.
For JJA, the uncertainty in the projections mostly originates from differences in modelled precipitation changes.
The other issues contribute to the range of uncertainty in projections of future warming projected by the IPCC and others, but this range does not include zero, a point which is agreed by most or all of those working on these topics as I've noted.
However, present - day reliability does not necessarily imply reliability for future projections, hence additional work is required to investigate the relationships between simulation errors and uncertainties in projections (e.g., Collins et al. 2012).
It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global - mean sea - level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea - level change due to ocean density and circulation change.
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