Sentences with phrase «uncertainty in the trend»

• Reduce uncertainties in trend estimates for climate observations and projections through use of modern statistical methods for spatio - temporal data.

One estimate of that error for the MSU 2 product (a weighted average of tropospheric + lower stratospheric trends) is that two different groups (UAH and RSS) come up with a range of tropical trends of 0.048 to 0.133 °C / decade — a much larger difference than the simple uncertainty in the trend.

• the factors that contribute to uncertainties in the trends inferred from three categories of instrumental measurements — Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) carried aboard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, radiosondes, and surface observations;

The median trend from the HadSST3 ensemble is 0.12 °C / decade, however the 95 % uncertainty interval obtained from the whole HadSST3 ensemble ranges from 0.10 to 0.16 °C / decade not including the substantial uncertainty in the trend.

With complete data these methods are equivalent, but not quite when there is missing data, though the uncertainties in the trend are more straightforward in the first case.

[Response: The characterisation of the error in the global annual mean is wrong, and even if correct, the impact on the uncertainty in the trend is completely wrong.

Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice, passive microwave imaging, global warming, climate change, polar ice caps, sea ice extent, sea ice dispersion, trends, uncertainty in trends, statistical inference

Keywords: Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice, passive microwave imaging, global warming, climate change, polar ice caps, sea ice extent, sea ice dispersion, trends, uncertainty in trends, statistical inference

In my opinion, there is enough autocorrelation in these series such that, statistically, the uncertainties in the trend are much wider than sometimes thought and are sufficiently wide that neither Hansen's Scenario B (nor scenarios with lesser and greater «true» increases) can be said to be rejected — contrary to the views of many readers.

The similarity of these observationally - based «NAO book - end» trend maps with those derived directly from the leading EOF of the set of 40 CESM - LE SLP trend maps (Fig. 2) attests to the robustness of the results, the utility of the method of Thompson et al. (2015) to estimate uncertainty in trends from the statistics of a Gaussian time series, and the fidelity of CESM's simulation of the NAO.

As tamino's post linked above shows, when we limit ourselves to a decade's worth of data, the uncertainty in the trend grows to nearly + / - 0.2 °C per decade (Figure 2).

The first question then becomes the uncertainty in that trend.

Moreover, the further back in time we go and the more data we use, the smaller the uncertainty in the trend.

The shorter the timeframe, the larger the uncertainty in the trend.

The fundamental property which determines the uncertainty in a trend is therefore the level of noise in the data.

Combining these two terms, the uncertainty in the trend varies in proportion to nm3 / 2.

So in the case of temperature trends, we might expect the uncertainty in the trend to vary as 1 / √ nm, where nm is the number of months of data.

Both serve to reduce the uncertainty in the trend.

The mean and the uncertainty in the trend both contribute to the uncertainty at any time.

This «autocorrelation» leads to spurious short term trends, in other words it increases the uncertainty in the trend.

Bradley, R.S., 1986: Uncertainties in trends in acid deposition: the role of climatic fluctuations, in: Acid Deposition: Long term trends, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., p. 93 - 108.

As a result, I suspect that applying the volcanic correction actually increases the uncertainty in the trend of the adjusted series, because of the uncertainty in the correction.

I think that's the key point: The uncertainties in the trends calculated from the more recent data values are so large that we can not say with confidence that any such change has occurred.

Here's the kicker: the uncertainty in those trend rates is probably higher, perhaps by a substantial amount, because that graph is based on an AR (1) model for the noise.

Because the noise level at a single location is so large, the uncertainty in the trend estimate at a single location will be large.

Of course there is uncertainty in the trends (both from fitting the OLS line, + / -0.6 ºC, and structurally, since RSS has slightly different numbers), and there is no expectation that TLT and surface air temperature should have identical trends (overall, TLT should be increasing a little faster than SAT — but this is also subject to noise over relatively short periods).