Perhaps digital coins whose supply is determined by demand will lower volatility enough to cut the future
uncertainty of prices.
And it's
the uncertainty of the price you'll get for your risky assets like shares when you need to sell them that is behind the shift into bonds and cash.
It's the uncertainty of the stability in the growth rate of the economy and
the uncertainty of the price trend that discourages investors.
Not exact matches
The
price of oil has risen to its highest since late 2014 this month, driven by concern over the potential for disruption to Iranian crude flows, but analysts say the degree
of uncertainty hanging over the deal means the market is extremely sensitive to any developments.
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability
of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost
of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates
of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates
of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect
of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result
of global economic
uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution
of key milestones such as the receipt
of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation
of our announced acquisition
of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future
pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability
of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk
of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production
of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts
of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak
of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact
of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability to obtain the debt to finance the purchase
price for our announced acquisition
of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect
of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect
of changes in tax law, such as the effect
of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations
of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect
of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability
of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass
of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many
of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment
of interest on, and principal
of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness
of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness
of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact
of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition
of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result
of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks
of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions
of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
«You have more regulatory
uncertainty... and because
of these falls you have these other outfalls,» he said, referring to the collapse
of some cryptocurrencies in the recent slump in
prices.
Weakness in the global economy and concern about the uneasiness
of markets, as well as
uncertainty about many lushly -
priced private companies known as unicorns, drove the markdown, investment experts said.
The magnitude
of the decline in home
prices acted as a «shock» to household balance sheets, said Marple, tightening the credit available to homeowners and creating a sense
of general
uncertainty about the future.
Such factors include, among others, general business, economic, competitive, political and social
uncertainties; the actual results
of current and future exploration activities; the actual results
of reclamation activities; conclusions
of economic evaluations; meeting various expected cost estimates; changes in project parameters and / or economic assessments as plans continue to be refined; future
prices of metals; possible variations
of mineral grade or recovery rates; the risk that actual costs may exceed estimated costs; failure
of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes and other risks
of the mining industry; political instability; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion
of development or construction activities, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled «Risk Factors» in the Company's Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2017 dated March 15, 2018.
Certain matters discussed in this news release are forward - looking statements that involve a number
of risks and
uncertainties including, but not limited to, doubts about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern, the need to obtain additional funding, risks in product development plans and schedules, rapid technological change, changes and delays in product approval and introduction, customer acceptance
of new products, the impact
of competitive products and
pricing, market acceptance, the lengthy sales cycle, proprietary rights
of the Company and its competitors, risk
of operations in Israel, government regulations, dependence on third parties to manufacture products, general economic conditions and other risk factors detailed in the Company's filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
«There was broad agreement among members to convey the Governing Council's concerns about the recent volatility in the euro exchange rate, which represented a source
of uncertainty that had to be monitored with respect to its implications for the medium - term outlook for
price stability,» the minutes said.
All
of this is to say that we're about to enter a period
of uncertainty, and that's not great for business, says
Price.
However, as the 2015 political imbroglio increased drug
price uncertainty, investors pulled money broadly out
of health care.
Such risks,
uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations in commodity
prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, levels
of end market demand in construction and in both the commercial and defense segments
of the aerospace industry, levels
of air travel, financial condition
of commercial airlines, the impact
of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition
of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization
of the anticipated benefits
of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing
of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition
of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration
of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization
of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels
of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability
of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope
of future repurchases
of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level
of other investing activities and uses
of cash, including in connection with the proposed acquisition
of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption in delivery
of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits
of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits
of diversification and balance
of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome
of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact
of the negotiation
of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect
of changes in political conditions in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect
of changes in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions, global trade policies and currency exchange rates in the near term and beyond; (16) the effect
of changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result in the imposition
of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits
of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing
of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence
of events that may give rise to a right
of one or both
of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee
of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million
of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects
of the announcement or the completion
of the merger on the market
price of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted in their operation
of their businesses while the merger agreement is in effect; (21) risks relating to the value
of the United Technologies» shares to be issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
«Anytime there is that level
of uncertainty around
pricing a risk, it's sure to cause hesitation for the underwriters.»
Jack Tatar, co-author
of «Cryptoassets: The Innovative Investor's Guide to Bitcoin and Beyond,» pointed to continuing regulatory
uncertainty in Wednesday's
price moves.
In recent years, investors have had to cope with plenty
of uncertainty: three summers worth
of the Greek default crises (2010, 2011, 2012); the US «fiscal cliff» in early 2013 and the government shutdown that October; the Ukraine - Russia conflicts; the collapse in oil
prices; China's slowdown and currency devaluation; and now, Brexit.
Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number
of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues;
price competition in key markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result in higher production costs and lower margins; our ability to lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the economic and political
uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up
of production
of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their favorable perception
of our brand and products, resulting in lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall
of our products; ongoing
uncertainty in global economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability
of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration
of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers
of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits
of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional
pricing, increase promotion
of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all
of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods
of significant stock
price volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity
of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization
of products under development, such as our pipeline
of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development
of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack
of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
«There's a lot
of uncertainty and the market is
pricing in some risk premium into the Treasury market in the form
of higher yields,» he said.
Important factors that could cause our actual results and financial condition to differ materially from those indicated in the forward - looking statements include, among others, the following: our ability to successfully and profitably market our products and services; the acceptance
of our products and services by patients and healthcare providers; our ability to meet demand for our products and services; the willingness
of health insurance companies and other payers to cover Cologuard and adequately reimburse us for our performance
of the Cologuard test; the amount and nature
of competition from other cancer screening and diagnostic products and services; the effects
of the adoption, modification or repeal
of any healthcare reform law, rule, order, interpretation or policy; the effects
of changes in
pricing, coverage and reimbursement for our products and services, including without limitation as a result
of the Protecting Access to Medicare Act
of 2014; recommendations, guidelines and quality metrics issued by various organizations such as the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, the American Cancer Society, and the National Committee for Quality Assurance regarding cancer screening or our products and services; our ability to successfully develop new products and services; our success establishing and maintaining collaborative, licensing and supplier arrangements; our ability to maintain regulatory approvals and comply with applicable regulations; and the other risks and
uncertainties described in the Risk Factors and in Management's Discussion and Analysis
of Financial Condition and Results
of Operations sections
of our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and our subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10 - Q.
If Brexit - like sentiment in other nations leads to restrictions on the flow
of trade and labor, he adds, «that is going to create greater
uncertainty and volatility» — at a time when some commentators believe that global stock and bond
prices are overdue for a tumble.
There's still plenty
of uncertainty about whether or not Congress will actually take steps on substantive legislative reforms that limit drug
prices.
«The Maple offer seems to have an attractive
price,» says Ed Ditmire, an analyst with Macquarie in New York, «but it's full
of uncertainties that make it tougher for shareholders to decide if they want it.»
«Given the
uncertainty surrounding the measurement
of economic slack, the true amount may be larger than estimated, which could slow down the emergence
of price pressures,» Draghi told a regular committee hearing.
These risks and
uncertainties include: Gilead's ability to achieve its anticipated full year 2018 financial results; Gilead's ability to sustain growth in revenues for its antiviral and other programs; the risk that private and public payers may be reluctant to provide, or continue to provide, coverage or reimbursement for new products, including Vosevi, Yescarta, Epclusa, Harvoni, Genvoya, Odefsey, Descovy, Biktarvy and Vemlidy ®; austerity measures in European countries that may increase the amount
of discount required on Gilead's products; an increase in discounts, chargebacks and rebates due to ongoing contracts and future negotiations with commercial and government payers; a larger than anticipated shift in payer mix to more highly discounted payer segments and geographic regions and decreases in treatment duration; availability
of funding for state AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs); continued fluctuations in ADAP purchases driven by federal and state grant cycles which may not mirror patient demand and may cause fluctuations in Gilead's earnings; market share and
price erosion caused by the introduction
of generic versions
of Viread and Truvada, an uncertain global macroeconomic environment; and potential amendments to the Affordable Care Act or other government action that could have the effect
of lowering
prices or reducing the number
of insured patients; the possibility
of unfavorable results from clinical trials involving investigational compounds; Gilead's ability to initiate clinical trials in its currently anticipated timeframes; the levels
of inventory held by wholesalers and retailers which may cause fluctuations in Gilead's earnings; Kite's ability to develop and commercialize cell therapies utilizing the zinc finger nuclease technology platform and realize the benefits
of the Sangamo partnership; Gilead's ability to submit new drug applications for new product candidates in the timelines currently anticipated; Gilead's ability to receive regulatory approvals in a timely manner or at all, for new and current products, including Biktarvy; Gilead's ability to successfully commercialize its products, including Biktarvy; the risk that physicians and patients may not see advantages
of these products over other therapies and may therefore be reluctant to prescribe the products; Gilead's ability to successfully develop its hematology / oncology and inflammation / respiratory programs; safety and efficacy data from clinical studies may not warrant further development
of Gilead's product candidates, including GS - 9620 and Yescarta in combination with Pfizer's utomilumab; Gilead's ability to pay dividends or complete its share repurchase program due to changes in its stock
price, corporate or other market conditions; fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate
of the U.S. dollar that may cause an unfavorable foreign currency exchange impact on Gilead's future revenues and pre-tax earnings; and other risks identified from time to time in Gilead's reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC).
The Southeast Asian economy expanded 4.9 percent on - year over the April - June period amid
uncertainties in global growth, persistent weakness in oil
prices and the spreading
of what is being called the country's worst - ever political crisis.
Uncertainty shock = lower US GDP estimates; markets will
price in EU fragmentation; Fed likely to pass in Dec; ultimate growth impact
of Trump will depend on whether his protectionism or Keynesianism triumphs; either way Trump will boost inflation / stagflation expectations as electorates say end wage deflation via immigration controls, trade protectionism, fiscal spending.
These risks and
uncertainties include competition and other economic conditions including fragmentation
of the media landscape and competition from other media alternatives; changes in advertising demand, circulation levels and audience shares; the Company's ability to develop and grow its online businesses; the Company's reliance on revenue from printing and distributing third - party publications; changes in newsprint
prices; macroeconomic trends and conditions; the Company's ability to adapt to technological changes; the Company's ability to realize benefits or synergies from acquisitions or divestitures or to operate its businesses effectively following acquisitions or divestitures; the Company's success in implementing expense mitigation efforts; the Company's reliance on third - party vendors for various services; adverse results from litigation, governmental investigations or tax - related proceedings or audits; the Company's ability to attract and retain employees; the Company's ability to satisfy pension and other postretirement employee benefit obligations; changes in accounting standards; the effect
of labor strikes, lockouts and labor negotiations; regulatory and judicial rulings; the Company's indebtedness and ability to comply with debt covenants applicable to its debt facilities; the Company's ability to satisfy future capital and liquidity requirements; the Company's ability to access the credit and capital markets at the times and in the amounts needed and on acceptable terms; and other events beyond the Company's control that may result in unexpected adverse operating results.
The additive effects
of a supply deficit, economic
uncertainty and geopolitical risk resulted in high oil
prices.
Consider, the many different channels
of potential Brexit influence — not only the impact on international trade and global interest rates and currencies, but also on bank equity
prices and on political
uncertainty.
Further, for our main measures (inflation, home
price changes, and earnings growth) we also report the time series
of forecast
uncertainty.
The current list
of economic
uncertainties is long enough without adding
uncertainty about the general level
of prices to the list.
The 2014 - 2015 oil
price collapse may be understood then as a supply surplus that occurred at a time
of a strengthening U.S. economy (low economic
uncertainty) and relatively low geopolitical risk (Figure 15).
It is more difficult to predict how the second - and third - order effects
of economic
uncertainty and geopolitical risk may affect supply and demand fundamentals and, therefore,
price.
This means that during times
of financial
uncertainty or stock market panic, investors often buy large amounts
of gold, pushing its
price up.
Risks associated with the Consumer Discretionary sector include, among others, apparel
price deflation due to low - cost entries, high inventory levels and pressure from e-commerce players; reduction in traditional advertising dollars; increasing household debt levels that could limit consumer appetite for discretionary purchases; declining consumer acceptance
of new product introductions; and geopolitical
uncertainty that could impact consumer sentiment.
Finance Minister Joe Oliver, who is delaying the release
of the federal budget until at least April due to
uncertainty over falling oil
prices, will have to put something on the table soon.
His justification for the delay was that
uncertainty on the future
of oil
prices made it difficult to plan his budget.
Such risks and
uncertainties include, but are not limited to: our ability to achieve our financial, strategic and operational plans or initiatives; our ability to predict and manage medical costs and
price effectively and develop and maintain good relationships with physicians, hospitals and other health care providers; the impact
of modifications to our operations and processes; our ability to identify potential strategic acquisitions or transactions and realize the expected benefits
of such transactions, including with respect to the Merger; the substantial level
of government regulation over our business and the potential effects
of new laws or regulations or changes in existing laws or regulations; the outcome
of litigation, regulatory audits, investigations, actions and / or guaranty fund assessments;
uncertainties surrounding participation in government - sponsored programs such as Medicare; the effectiveness and security
of our information technology and other business systems; unfavorable industry, economic or political conditions, including foreign currency movements; acts
of war, terrorism, natural disasters or pandemics; our ability to obtain shareholder or regulatory approvals required for the Merger or the requirement to accept conditions that could reduce the anticipated benefits
of the Merger as a condition to obtaining regulatory approvals; a longer time than anticipated to consummate the proposed Merger; problems regarding the successful integration
of the businesses
of Express Scripts and Cigna; unexpected costs regarding the proposed Merger; diversion
of management's attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities during the pendency
of the Merger; potential litigation associated with the proposed Merger; the ability to retain key personnel; the availability
of financing, including relating to the proposed Merger; effects on the businesses as a result
of uncertainty surrounding the proposed Merger; as well as more specific risks and
uncertainties discussed in our most recent report on Form 10 - K and subsequent reports on Forms 10 - Q and 8 - K available on the Investor Relations section
of www.cigna.com as well as on Express Scripts» most recent report on Form 10 - K and subsequent reports on Forms 10 - Q and 8 - K available on the Investor Relations section
of www.express-scripts.com.
Since we trade in an environment
of uncertainty how we handle the potential
price action at the right hand side
of the chart is what...
Given the expected
uncertainty and potential volatility in the coming year, I think avoiding high -
priced mistakes and management teams that lack integrity — 2 things that owners
of an entire market index
of companies can not easily avoid — may prove helpful.
Then accumulating
uncertainties and risks drove volatility up and
prices down, with 9
of the 11 equity sectors closing Q1 in negative territory.
In hindsight these setup outputs look easy and straightforward, the reality is that in the moment
of actual
price action traders deal with high levels
of uncertainty and this, in particular, is where Mella outlines levels
of patience and keeping her members psychologically focused.
I know there is a lot
of uncertainty regarding this stock but seeing it
priced well into the mid-teens it is becoming more compelling as a lot
of the negative news surrounding this company seems to be baked into the current stock
price.
It should put an end to a lot
of uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its impact on currency values, with the pound, euro, US dollar and others likely to experience
price movements over this period, which all forex traders should prepare for.
Further demand increases and a lack
of new hotel supply point to per - diem increases in 2016, but economic and geopolitical instability in Europe casts
uncertainty on this year's currency exchange rates and business travel
pricing.
Prices move inversely proportional to shifts in economic
uncertainty so that expected returns remain essentially the same for a given level
of risk.
The model shown in the following painting attempts to diagram the three variables
of Price, Expected Return and
Uncertainty, resulting in a distribution
of actual monthly returns shown at the bottom.
If these inflows however are counterbalanced by rising private inflows from Chinese businesses and wealthy individuals taking money out
of China, either because
of weaker domestic growth prospects
of because
of rising nervousness and
uncertainty, asset
prices might not fall as much as we would have expected, but Australia will be caught in a vice a little like that
of, for example, Spain, in which export weakness can not be partially counterbalanced by a weaker currency.
But one could also add the periodic commodity
price shocks, the disruptive impact
of the tragic Japanese earthquake and tsunami on global trade and production, and the effect
of the
uncertainties around the impending fiscal cliff on hiring and investing.