Not exact matches
Some analysts have provided interesting evidence to
suggest that online polls could be significantly overstating support for Leave through the way they handle
undecided voters and by failing to represent more socially liberal
voters who are harder to reach.
Essentially, while forecasts
suggest a victory for Cambiemos this Sunday, the race will come down to the will of
undecided voters.
There is no evidence
suggesting that the deal Cameron negotiated with the EU has satisfied many
undecided British
voters, but there is evidence
suggesting that numerous European politicians are happy to follow the UK example and demand from the EU their own list of opt - outs and special arrangements.
For a variety of reasons (including the impact of high levels of
undecided voters in a specific poll), the actual result of an election contest may vary from the figures
suggested by an opinion poll, even if the poll is carried out relatively close to election day, or on election day itself as in the case of exit polls, but the likelihood of such variation is not something that can be factored into this model.
The exit poll
suggested Gordon Brown's hopes that a last - minute surge, based on a fear of the first Tory government since 1997persuading many
undecided voters back to Labour, proved unfounded.
But the Siena Research Institute survey, conducted the day after the Republican in the race suspended her campaign,
suggests that roughly one out of five
voters in the district remain
undecided just hours before Election Day.
And yet, polling
suggests Gillibrand is in the lows 40s with a significant
undecided bloc of primary
voters — meaning that she is vulnerable to an intraparty challenge.
A paper by Matt Singh, one of the few to predict the 2015 Conservative victory, and James Kanagasooriam of polling firm Populus,
suggests that the lack of an explicit «don't know» option in phone polls could be boosting support for Remain, as
undecided voters tend to fall towards the status quo.
But in the run up to Barack Obama's electoral victory, a poll from Maibach's group and researchers at Yale University
suggested that the Republican stance on climate change was turning off
undecided voters.