Sentences with phrase «under estimate warming»

Most experts agree that the HadCRUT record tends to under estimate warming because it excludes a large part of the Arctic from its measurement, and the Arctic is warming much faster than most parts of the globe.

Not exact matches

Understanding how layers of air insulate the surface of glaciers, for example, is vital to making accurate estimates of how fast they will melt — and sea levels will rise — as the Earth warms under its blanket of greenhouse gases.

The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.

For example, Sturrock et al. (2011) estimate that a) Dothistroma needle blight (Dothistroma septosporum or D. pini), whose primary host in Montana is ponderosa pine, will have reduced or increased impacts, depending on warmer and drier or wetter conditions, respectively; and b) Armillaria root disease (Armillaria spp.), which generally affects Douglas - fir and grand fir, will have increased impacts under warmer, drier conditions, but no change under warmer, wetter conditions.

Indeed, if one accepts a very liberal risk level of 50 % for mean global warming of 2 °C (the guiderail widely adopted) since the start of the industrial age, then under midrange IPCC climate sensitivity estimates, then we have around 30 years before the risk level is exceeded.

The importance of a structured warm up routine should not be under estimated when it comes to preventing sports injury.

The smallest warming / sea level rise in TAR figure 5 will place a wide range of human and natural systems under very considerable pressure (and based on estimates of the melt - down point for greenland place us teetering on the edge of dangerous climate change).

The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.

John Tyndal found that water vapor and carbon dioxide were the major greenhouse gases in 1859, and Svante Arrhenius made the first estimate of global warming under doubled carbon dioxide in 1896.

Advocates for tackling the issue under the Montreal treaty expressed disappointment that the Obama administration was taking such a cautious approach to a chemical that could, by some estimates, account for as much as 30 percent of all atmospheric warming by 2040.

ESTIMATING THE PERMAFROST - CARBON FEEDBACK ON GLOBAL WARMING A key uncertainty is the fraction of carbon that might be decomposed under anaerobic conditions — resulting potentially in methane emissions to the atmosphere.

So, even conservative estimates of committed warming indicate that we have to urgently reduce radiative forcing, in other words peak global GHG emissions as soon as possible and then reduce them as quickly as possible by reducing our use of fossil fuels drastically, if we want to have a chance at keeping warming under 2C.

It's been criticized, and may well not be the last word on the subject, but their estimate was droughts such as the one that was observed are about 3x more likely under the observed warming than in an «unwarmed» world.

Warming of 4 °C would increase central estimates to more than 1,745 cities and 30 million people under either assumption.

We estimate committed warming based on a distribution of possible transient response coefficient values from Gillett et al. and from future cumulative emissions under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 (RCP Database version 2.0.5).

By the way, you also conveniently failed to mention that RSS admits that their version 4.0 TLT likely under - estimates lower tropospheric warming [5].

A) UAH TLT is about the same as for ERA - I [6], even though the ERA - I team admits that they under - estimate lower tropospheric warming [7].

The IPCC estimates a likely upper bound for sea level rise, for instance, at about a meter, but under much stronger warming scenarios.

C) There's continuing criticism of UAH's homogenization methods, methods that conveniently seem to almost always under - estimate tropospheric warming and to diverge from other satellite - based estimates [9].

D) Consistent with UAH's history of conveniently under - estimating tropospheric warming, UAH reduced their tropospheric warming trend from version 5.6 to version 6 [10].

Under a scenario where warming is kept below 2 °C by 2050, annual adaptation costs are estimated at US$ 35 billion per year.

Our analysis also leads to a relatively low and tightly - constrained estimate of Transient Climate Response of 1.3 — 1.8 °C, and relatively low projections of 21st - century warming under the Representative Concentration Pathways.

The following figure, which presents the FTA's estimates of habitat converted to cropland as of 2100, shows that the amount of habitat lost to cropland may well be least under the richest - but - warmest scenario (A1FI), but higher under the cooler (B1 and B2) scenarios.

In fact, under reasonable alternative assumptions, one of the models used to estimate the SCC provides a negative estimate of the SCC — implying that there are net benefits to global warming, which would argue for subsidizing, not taxing, CO2 emissions.

All I know is that Schmidt, Santer, et al seem to agree that the climate models over predicted the warming because the models under - estimated negative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols.

We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50 % of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario.

The results can give us projections of future global warming under a variety of scenarios, and also give us an estimate of the global climate sensitivity.

Of course, that study is just one of many on how much carbon reduction is optimal, but even more conservative estimates show there's still plenty of ground to make up if the goal is keeping global warming under 2 degrees.

A) c02 is a ghg B) humans are putting c02 into the air C) if we increase c02 the planet will warm, D) we have uncertain estimates for the amount of warming E) we take the under bet.

Somewhat related, Snyder estimates the global average temperature during the previous interglacial (Eemian) to be warmer than now, whereas e.g. Hansen et al (2016, under review) argue that they are similarly warm.

Bottom: Provided for reference, estimated amount of carbon that would warm the planet approximately 2 °C (Allen et al., 2009; uncertainty estimate in this value discussed in this reference) and estimated total amount of carbon to be released by the year 2100 under business - as - usual scenarios (IPCC, 2007c).

The Arctic is under - represented in surface temperature datasets and this could affect estimates of global warming.

Current results continue to be fairly consistent with my personal theory, that man - made CO2 may add 0.5 - 1C to global temperatures over the next century (below alarmist estimates), but that this warming may be swamped at times by natural climactic fluctuations that alarmists tend to under - estimate.

A study under the auspices of University of Alaska Fairbanks doubles estimates of methane released from an important oceanic source which may be «leaking» the potent global warming gas as permafrost melts.

There are also indications that the» hiatus» is related to increased warming in the deep oceans (Balmaseda et al. 2013) and that the estimate of the global mean has been underestimated due under - reporting of the recent warming in the Arctic (Cowtan and Way 2014).

This is especially critical because studies have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust cover of 40 to 60 % under a doubled carbon dioxide climate, which, on the basis of model runs with an equivalent reduction of the mean dust forcing, could result in an additional 0.3 ° to 0.4 °C warming of the northern tropical Atlantic.»

I still believe that CO2 levels are rising largely due to human activities and that they contribute to net mean warming, though not anywhere near the amount estimated by the official climate Team, and far less than natural processes not under human control.

Question: given these givens, please provide your best estimate of the trajectory of warming under various scenarios.

While global dimming may be causing us to under - estimate the amount of global warming, other effects may be causing us to over-estimate it.

Quirke: In one of your posts, you mentioned that your best estimate for warming under a business as usual scenario — which I guess is unsuccessful mitigation and somewhere between the IPCC's RCP 6.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios — is 3 °C by 2100.