You all recently posted an NBA trend about
underdog road teams receiving 30 % or less of the wagers as a winning betting strategy.
Is there value in betting the ML of
underdog road teams in the NBA receiving 30 % or less of the wagers?
Not exact matches
Pittsburgh has injury woes,
road woes and faces a
team that has been very tough as an
underdog.
During the regular season these bettors are prone to overwhelmingly taking favorites and home
teams, but they are far more likely to take
road teams and
underdogs during the playoffs.
It's the end of the
road and you should rejoice now because once the inept dinosaur is gone we shall no longer be perennially handicapped
underdogs waiting for our turn to exit competitions against better
teams..
Both
teams are currently
road underdogs receiving less than 25 % of spread bets as they travel to Pittsburgh and San Francisco, respectively.
Both of these
teams are comfortable playing on the
road, and the value on the
underdog could be tough to pass up on given the strength of both of these
teams.
There has clearly been an edge taking
underdogs in divisional games, and focusing on
road teams with high totals only improves upon those results.
Unfortunately, using a simple favorite versus
underdog filter provided no additional value, and betting against
road teams playing in their second game in as many nights actually produced a win rate above 50 %, but failed to cover the necessary vig needed to produce a winning system.
The tables below, which utilize closing lines from Pinnacle, display the five most profitable active umpires for home
teams,
road teams,
underdogs, favorites, overs and unders since the start of the 2005 season.
All ten of these games featured
road underdogs, with nine
teams playing against non-conference opponents.
On Thursday night, two
teams are
road underdogs on long ATS losing streaks.
In this system the higher the total starting at about 8 ′ the greater the chance of
underdog winning, can you break that down further taking into consideration the money line 110-130 130-150 150-170 170-200 and 200 and up also if
team is Home or
road, Division, League, or inter league and have each month noted.
New Orleans is a
road underdog against the best
team in the NFC.
That said, the ideal moneyline range for these heavily bet
road teams comes when we look at
underdogs of +185 or less.
Since 2005, the
road team has gone 16 - 7 ATS and the
underdog has gone 14 - 10 ATS in this heated rivalry.
We found that when two ranked
teams play each other, the
underdog has gone 68 - 49 ATS (+15.45 units) and the
road team has gone 56 - 47 ATS (+5.99 units).
Road teams, double digit
underdogs and betting against the public have all been profitable trends over the past decade, so the Titans do appear to be offering some value to bettors this weekend.
On the season,
underdogs are 39 - 36 ATS,
road teams are 41 - 33 ATS and
road favorites are 12 - 10 ATS.
In a battle of 1 - 2
teams, the Eagles opened as 3 - point
road underdogs at CRIS and have received 83 % of spread bets.
Back the home
team at -140 here and fade the public bettors taking a big
road underdog.
With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a point away from the
underdog Golden Bears, the public has pounced on the Trojans winning by at least 4 points on the
road against a Cal
team that got embarrassed by Oregon 43 - 15 last weekend.
It's also important to realize that
road teams receiving no more than 30 % of spread bets are almost always
underdogs.
Underdogs went 32 - 27 ATS while
road teams went 33 - 25 ATS.
Using our Bet Labs software, we found that elite
teams have traditionally been undervalued when they're an
underdog in the midst of a prolonged
road trip.
We can improve this system further by focusing on home and
road splits with
teams that are favorites and
underdogs.
In the
team's first conference game, USC is a big
underdog on the
road.
Road underdogs are historically undervalued, as are
teams coming off a loss.
If a
team fails to cover as an
underdog and then is a
road underdog in the next game the line is often inflated.
Betting Trends
Underdogs went 34 - 24 (58.6 %) ATS
Road teams went 29 - 28 (50.9 %) ATS Overs went 35 - 25 (58.3 %) Betting against the -LSB-...]
Week 4 Betting Trends
Underdogs went 32 - 26 (55.2 %) ATS
Underdogs in 2017: 157 - 123 (56.1 %) ATS, +24.54 units
Road teams went 35 - 22 (61.4 %) ATS
Road -LSB-...]
The Dogs are Barking
Underdogs went 31 - 24 (56.4 %) ATS
Road teams went 28 - 27 (50.9 %) ATS Overs went 29 - 26 (52.7 %) Betting against -LSB-...]
Week 2 Betting Trends
Underdogs went 43 - 27 (71.7 %) ATS
Road teams went 47 - 21 (69.1 %) ATS Unders went 46 - 24 (65.7 %) Games with totals of 60 points or more: Under was -LSB-...]
Falcons -5 vs. Seahawks — Gene Steratore
Underdogs are 73 - 60 ATS
Road teams are 72 - 61 ATS Falcons -LSB-...]
Road underdogs often provide value but this is especially true in conference games where the
teams are familiar with each other.
Week 5 Betting Trends Favorites: 31 - 21 (59.6 %) ATS First weekend in 2017 that
underdogs were losers
Road teams: 28 - 24 -LSB-...]
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Army is 6 - 1 as
road underdogs, yet 7 - 18 as an
underdog of 3.5 - 10.0, 2 - 8 to
teams with a winning record.
Play Against —
Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH)-- where
team's hitters draw 3 walks or less / game on the season, after a win by 10 runs or more.
AFC Championship: Patriots -5.5 vs. Steelers
Underdogs are 69 - 62 ATS
Road teams -LSB-...]
Road teams are often undervalued in the NFL; this is especially true of
underdogs.
The Bruins being 2 - point
underdogs on the
road suggests that UCLA is actually a better
team than A&M.
The gang instantly hit it off once more and start on an amusing
underdog road trip, where they, in some perverted reinvention of the Pitch Perfect series, head upstate to try and be the best stripper
team in the world.
With that in mind, I give you this picture of Mark Dantonio, who in this picture had just been informed that his
team, Michigan State, is a 16 - point
underdog on the
road at Ohio State.