Bovada is a very square sportsbook and they typically offer far better odds on the underdog, however, as we explained in a recent article, square bettors tend to gravitate towards
underdogs during the postseason.
Although casual bettors overwhelmingly take favorites during the regular season, they're far more apt to take
underdogs during the postseason.
Not exact matches
During the regular season there has been historical value betting underdogs and visitors, but that trend completely changes during the posts
During the regular season there has been historical value betting
underdogs and visitors, but that trend completely changes
during the posts
during the
postseason.
It's atypical for the majority of tickets to back the
underdog, however, that tendency changes
during the
postseason and casual bettors are increasingly willing to take the points and hope for a competitive game.
Earlier research had found that large
underdogs were profitable
during the
postseason, so we wanted to eliminate those teams from our sample.
It's interesting to see the public once again pounding the
underdog, as this type of action is highly irregular
during the regular season but fairly common
during the
postseason.
With the
postseason underway, we typically see a large change in public betting with bettors far more likely to take
underdogs than they are
during the regular season.
The table below displays the record for second half
underdogs that are trailing at halftime
during the regular season and
postseason.
It's very rare that a majority of public bettors will take the
underdog during the regular season, but there are significant changes to betting habits
during the
postseason.
During the regular season it is very strange to see an
underdog receiving a majority of spread bets, however, clearly that trend changes once we reach the
postseason.
As you can see,
underdogs have done an exceptional job of covering the spread
during the
postseason, but as we begin to add our betting against the public filters, we can improve our expected returns.
This falls in line with our past research which indicates that although
underdogs are undervalued
during the regular season, favorites tend to be more profitable
during the
postseason.
Since 2005,
underdogs have posted a winning percentage of 50.2 %
during the regular season but just 48.9 %
during the
postseason.
Even with the large payouts on moneyline
underdogs, $ 100 bettors would have lost $ 6,516 by taking every
underdog to win straight up
during the
postseason.
Using our Bet Labs software, we discovered
underdogs have gone 71 - 58 ATS (55 percent)
during the
postseason since 2003.