... In short, if CM3's internal variability is realistic, there is some chance that a rapid
underlying warming rate of 0.2 K decade − 1 could be ongoing as of 2015, but that this warming signal has been substantially masked (and may continue to be masked for even another decade or more) by an internal variability cooling episode.
Not exact matches
Dr. Swanson: One distinction between your analysis and the more conventional ones is the
rate of
underlying warming that is occurring due to radiative forcings.
Is anybody aware of any papers that demonstrate that there is statistically significant evidence for the existence of a change in the
underlying rate of
warming?
The physics
underlying the lapse
rate will insure dew point temperatures at some level in the atmospheric column, although the level will increase with global
warming (the resulting high (er) clouds may give a positive feedback).
I've not seen this done, and my initial experiments on breakpoint detection seem to suggest that there is insufficient evidence to suggest that there has been a change in the
underlying rate of
warming.
As that happens, the
underlying global
warming driver will be progressively loosing its energy sink, and not only will we see ocean rise, but a progressive escalation in the
rate of atmospheric temperature rise as well.
The
underlying anthropogenic
warming trend, even with the zero
rate of
warming during the current hiatus, is 0.08 C per decade.
Though the
rate of
warming has slowed (Editor's note: No it hasn't; see links below), the world does indeed continue to
warm, and cherry - picked data
underlie the claims that
warming has stopped.
The
underlying issue is this: While the planet was subject primarily to natural changes, the different parts of the planet were
warming and cooling at similar
rates, thus the zonal anomalies run fairly parallel.
The US, with Brazil, further suggested adding actual estimates of the
rate of
warming for 15 - year periods using different starting years, to which a CLA responded that this was not evaluated in the
underlying assessment.
What that would mean is that in reality the
underlying rate of
warming is still accelerating.
On lower
rates of
warming in the last 15 years, there was broad agreement on the
underlying science as well as on the importance of addressing the phenomenon in the SPM, given the media attention to this issue.
«In 1994, Nature magazine published a study of mine in which we estimated the
underlying rate at which the world was
warming by removing the impacts of volcanoes and El Niños (Christy and McNider 1994)... The result of that study indicated the
underlying trend for 1979 - 1993 was +0.09 °C / decade which at the time was one third the
rate of
warming that should have been occurring according to estimates by climate model simulations.»
And yet if the simple fitting calculation is correct, there has been little or no change in the
underlying rate of
warming.
The
underlying rate of
warming has been about 0.6 C per century since the record started in the latter 19th century.
The
underlying net anthropogenic
warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07 — 0.08 °C / decade, with superimposed AMO - related ups and downs that included the early 20th century
warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated
warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the
warming rates.