But what seems particularly troubling to some commentators in 2014 is that
the underperformance of active managers has occurred in the face of below - average correlations in most equity markets.
That phenomenon would reverse years of
underperformance of active managers against the basic stock index.
Not exact matches
In a paper on countercyclical investing, Bradley Jones at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) points out that investors often hire
active managers just after a period
of outperformance, only to experience a period
of subsequent
underperformance based on where they are in the market cycle.3 Or after doing a tremendous amount
of due diligence to hire
active managers, institutional investors might be forced to replace underperforming
managers, only to leave alpha on the table as these fired
managers often outperform in subsequent periods.
That is particularly critical during periods
of underperformance, when an
active manager's countercyclical view can help manage future risks or find good entry points to invest.
So when the worst
active managers lose business, the aggregate amount
of underperformance falls.
Most
active managers fail most
of the time, at least if we take their
underperformance of passive benchmarks as evidence
of failure.
Selecting the Russell 2000 historically resulted in: 1) less return per unit
of risk than could have been achieved with the S&P SmallCap 600, or 2) a lower hurdle for expensive
active managers to gain outsized fees — more often than not for
underperformance.
One
of the few things more reliable than
active managers» general run
of underperformance is their confidence that, despite what happened last year, this year will be different.
Recall that many investors exercise reverse timing by redeeming from
managers with recent
underperformance and investing with
managers who have recently done well, contributing to the poor results
of those investing with
active managers.
Fees are a contributor to
underperformance, possibly the most important factor, but one can not dismiss the horrible record
of active managers to pick stocks either.
The
underperformance of the average
active manager is therefore especially striking — since the average randomly - selected portfolio would have readily outperformed.
In 2014 as in most prior years, the
underperformance of the average
active manager is striking.
Many point to
underperformance by
active managers in the past few years as proof that the days
of the stock picker are numbered.